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Eagles vs. Cowboys Week 10 Prediction Gets Wild Without Dak Prescott

Our final score prediction for this week's Eagles vs Cowboys matchup expects things to get seriously out of hand with Cooper Rush starting in place of Dak Prescott.

By Jason Schandl

Dec 10, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws a pass in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
Dec 10, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) throws a pass in the first quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images
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The two Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys matchups every year tend to be occasions that fans of both teams are circling on the schedule as soon as it gets announced. The NFL schedulemakers put both bouts late in the season (Week 10 and Week 16) in an effort to increase the drama and stakes between two potential playoff contenders. That has backfired.

With Dak Prescott on the shelf for the already disappointing Cowboys, there's not the usual level of intrigue in this matchup. Accordingly, oddsmakers have Philly as 7-point favorites on the road.

But divisional matchups are a tricky thing. Unexpected results can be pretty common, and the familiarity between the teams can lead to more chaos. Is that the case in Week 10?

Let's take a look at both sides of the matchup before getting into our prediction for the final score of the game.

What's Working in the Eagles Favor

Would it be too flippant to just say "everything"? Because that's certainly the answer that comes to mind first for most Eagles fans (and heck, probably even most Cowboys fans at this point).

The obvious starting point is the Cooper Rush situation though.

Dallas' Offense Could Have a Historically Bad Day

Even with their $240 million quarterback having been at the helm, Dallas ranks just 22nd in the NFL in yards per play this season. And if you don't like yards per play as a metric, you can really take your pick of whatever stat you want. Here's a list to help you make your choice:

  • Yards per play: 22nd
  • Points per game: 20th
  • Net yards per pass attempt: 21st
  • Rushing yards per carry: 31st
  • Turnover rate: 4th (highest)
  • PFF grade (total offense): 29th

So we've got an offense that is among the NFL's least effective no matter which way you slice it, and we downgrade their quarterback from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush. No matter where you stand on Dak, he's obviously at least the best quarterback in Dallas, and the offense will take a huge hit without him.

And that's all before we consider that CeeDee Lamb is "week-to-week" with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays will likely be banged up. Maybe Rush will have had some time to build chemistry with Jonathan Mingo?

And that ailing unit will be greeted by one of the best defenses in the NFL. The same way you can use basically any stat to highlight Dallas' ineptitude, you can do the same to show how dominant the Eagles' defense has been.

  • Yards per play: 5th
  • Points per game: 9th
  • Net yards per pass attempt: 6th
  • PFF grade (overall defense): 3rd

And what should really worry Dallas? The Eagles rank 3rd in coverage and 2nd in pass-rush by PFF's grades. The potential weakness in this unit is their ability to stop the run, and that basically doesn't matter in this matchup. Dalvin Cook and Rico Dowdle aren't going to be threats against anyone, and Dallas will likely be trailing too much to be able to commit to the run anyway.

So Cooper Rush, possibly playing without CeeDee Lamb, will be forced to consistently go up against the Eagles' biggest strengths. Yikes.

Philly's Offense Should Dominate Too

Sticking with PFF grades, Dallas has the 2nd-worst defense in the NFL — only ahead of the Carolina Panthers. They giev up the fourth-most yards per play, and they can't stop the pass (3rd most net yards per pass attempt allowed) or the run (11th most yards per carry).

And then you have to factor in how the Cowboys' lack of offense will affect the D in terms of field position. The defense already faces the 7th-worst average starting field position in the NFL, leading to them allowing the 2nd-most points per drive (2.61) while allowing points on 47.1% of opponents' drives.

That field position metric should be even worse this week, and giving the Eagles' offense consistently short fields against one of the league's worst defenses could make this a massacre.

Are There Any Reasons the Cowboys Could Keep it Close?

The Cowboys' biggest strengths are of course CeeDee Lamb and MIcah Parsons. With Lamb questionable and Parsons looking to return after a four-game absence, even they're not especially big threats.

Even with those injuries aside, Lamb's usefulness gets heavily limited by Cooper Rush's play, and the value of Micah Parsons' pass-rushing ability is limited when the Cowboys' opponents have a big lead and can take a more run-heavy approach.

If we're trying to find an edge for Dallas, I suppose its in special teams. PFF has them ranked No. 5 in the NFL, compared to No. 11 for the Eagles. The bulk of that ranking, however, is tied to Brandon Aubrey's field goal kicking, with Kavontae Turpin's work as a return man providing some boost as well.

Are kick returns and long field goals enough to keep a game close? Maybe, if you're expecting a defensive slugfest. If the Eagles were an old-school team that tended to grind out wins with 17 points, a return touchdown plus a couple long field goals could very well give Dallas a shot at an upset.

But the Eagles should score a ton here, and returns plus field goals won't do anything for you in a shootout.

Final Score Prediction

Even giving Dallas the benefit of the doubt with home-field advantage and approaching the situation as though Lamb and Parsons will play, it's a bit of a surprise to only see a 7-point spread on this game.

It truly feels like one of the most lopsided matchups of the entire NFL season so far. The "divisional games can be weird" factor matters some, but not nearly enough for me to think this is going to be anything but a blowout. That will be fun for Eagles fans, but disappointing for NFL fans anywhere else on a 3-game afternoon slate where the other options to watch are Titans-Chargers and Jets-Cardinals. Sorry, non-Eagles fans.

The Eagles' defense will dominate, and Jalen Hurts will be facing down short fields against a terrible defense. The only thing that could suppress the score is if Saquon Barkley dominates enough to see 30 carries to keep the clock running all afternoon.

Final score prediction: Eagles 31 - Cowboys 15

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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