The Phillies won again yesterday and are in a smash spot today at home against the Royals, so naturally we’re all over it. We’ve got three picks to choose from for this game, giving you several chances to win some money on it.
Here are Section 215’s best Philadelphia betting picks for Friday.
Best Philly Betting Picks 8/4
Tyler Maher: Phillies Runline vs. Royals
After taking three of four from the Marlins on the road, the Phillies return home for a much easier matchup against the lowly Royals on Friday night.
Kansas City comes to town with the second-worst record in baseball at 35-75. That mark doesn’t figure to improve with Jordan Lyles on the mound, who’s 2-12 with a 6.15 ERA in 20 starts this year.
Meanwhile, we have to like our chances with Aaron Nola on the mound. He’s been a bit disappointing at 9-7 with a 4.43 ERA, but he shouldn’t have much trouble against a Royals offense that ranks second-to-last in scoring at 3.85 runs per game.
Kansas City has been terrible at covering the runline this year (43-67), especially on the road (20-33). Take Philly to win this one easily and cover the runline at home.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Jordan Lyles Strikeout Prop
As the Phillies and Royals kick off their weekend series tonight, I’m looking to cash in on Philadelphia’s lack of plate discipline.
Rob Thomson’s club has been one of the most aggressive in the majors this year, which has unsurprisingly led to plenty of misses. In fact, the Phillies rank fifth across MLB in strikeouts per game (9.25) as they chase boom-or-bust results. We saw this on full display last series against the Marlins, as Philly racked up 39 K’s in four games, including a whopping 24 whiffs over the final two contests alone.
Friday’s opponent, Jordan Lyles, isn’t a prolific strikeout artist by any means, but he is averaging 6.4 K’s per 9 innings this year. He also notched at least 4 strikeouts in three of his four starts in July and lasted at least 5 innings in every outing, so he’s got some good momentum on his side.
I like taking the Over on any K total at 3.5 or below.
Jason Schandl: Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run
The other side of the coin is that the Phillies’ aggression also gives plenty of home run potential, and that’s especially true tonight.
Jordan Lyles has allowed the 32nd-highest barrel rate among 365 qualifying pitchers this season, and he is especially susceptible to left-handed hitters. He’s allowed a 36.9% hard-hit rate with a 47.2% fly-ball rate in that split, and hard-hit fly balls usually have a pretty good chance of leaving the park.
The matchup remains soft against the Royals’ bullpen, too, as Kansas City’s relievers have allowed the second-highest hard-hit rate and eighth-highest fly-ball rate in the majors.
It’s obviously not great that Kyle Schwarber is hitting below .200 this season, but he’s certainly done his best to make up for that with power. His .242 isolated power isn’t far off his terrific career average (.260) and he’s sporting hard-hit rates above 37% and fly-ball rates above 45% against both right- and left-handed pitching this season.
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