The Phillies are reeling from a tough loss yesterday, but they have a chance for redemption today against the Marlins. We also get our first look at Michael Lorenzen, so hopefully he lives up to the hype and helps us win some money in the process.
Just a reminder that the Phillies game starts at 12:10 p.m. ET today, so make sure to get your bets in before then.
Now, here are Section 215’s best Philadelphia betting picks for Thursday.
Best Philly Betting Picks 8/3
Tyler Maher: Phillies Moneyline @ Marlins
Last night’s walk-off loss to the Marlins was absolutely brutal as we squandered a 5-0 lead (thanks, bullpen). Fortunately, we still have a chance to take three of four from Miami with a win this afternoon.
Trade deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen will make his Phillies debut today. He was 5-7 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 18 starts with the Tigers before being dealt.
He’ll be opposed by Johnny Cueto, who is starting to look his age at 37. He’s 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and a 5.71 FIP in 16 innings this year.
The pitching matchup is a clear advantage for us. We have an All-Star on the mound while Miami has a washed-up veteran who hasn’t earned a win since last year.
It’s also worth noting that we’ve been playing really well on the road lately, going 19-8 straight up over our last 27 away games. Look for Lorenzen to make a good first impression with his new team today and pitch us to victory.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Phillies @ Marlins – Under 0.5 Runs in First Inning
The Phillies and Marlins just played their highest-scoring game of this series last night, but there’s a clear trend when these runs are coming. Each of the past two matchups has seen zero runs scored on either side in the first frame, with bats picking up later on in the contest.
This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering where these clubs rank in first-inning scoring on the season. Both are in the back half of the pack, with Philadelphia coming in at No. 15 and Miami near the bottom at No. 27.
Though the Marlins added Josh Bell at the deadline to help their offense, he’ll have to face the red-hot Michael Lorenzen tonight. The recently acquired starter posted four starts with zero runs allowed in July, so he’s more than capable of shutting down Miami. And while the vulnerable Johnny Cueto is on the mound for the Fish, the Phillies have had their struggles at the top of the lineup recently, especially with leadoff man Kyle Schwarber in a funk.
Given all of this, I’m taking the under 0.5 runs in the first inning tonight.
Jason Schandl: Mets @ Royals UNDER
Carlos Carrasco (6.40 ERA) will be taking on Brady Singer (5.46 ERA) in this one, so why am I banking on this game ending with a low run total?
First of all, the total doesn’t need to be that low. The Over/Under is at 9.0 in this one with plus odds on the Under. It’s not like either guy needs a shutout to hit the Under here.
The total is so high in part because of those pitchers’ ERAs, but neither has actually been as bad as their ERA makes it look, both sporting xFIPs below 5.00 (4.94 for Carrasco, 4.23 for Singer). This won’t be a true pitching duel, but it’s not going to be the total shootout that you might think.
The other thing is that both of these teams’ offenses constantly fail to live up to expectations. The Under has hit in 58.3% of Mets games (No. 2 in the majors) and 53.3% of Royals games (No. 11), and I like this trend to continue tonight after hitting with ease in their meeting on Wednesday.
Plus if you bet $5 on MLB games at DraftKings, you’ll unlock a guaranteed $150 bonus. As long as you sign up through the exclusive Section 215 link below, you’ll get the bonus as soon as you place your bet — you don’t even need to wait to find out if you win or lose!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.