The Phillies are coming off of a tense win over the Marlins on Monday. They’ll look to strike again tonight and create further distance in the NL Wild Card race, while a pair of struggling NL East teams provide some potential betting value to begin the month.
With that in mind, here’s Section 215’s best Philadelphia betting picks for Tuesday.
Best Philly Betting Picks 8/1
Tyler Maher: Marlins Moneyline vs. Phillies
The Phillies pulled ahead of the Marlins for second place in the NL East with a 4-2 win in Miami last night.
All eyes will be on Dave Dombrowski to see what he does at the trade deadline today, but I’m expecting the Fish to bounce back in the second game of the series behind Sandy Alcantara. The reigning NL Cy Young winner has taken a pretty big step back this year, but he’s starting to look more like himself lately. He’s coming off a complete-game victory over the Rays and has a 2.60 ERA with a 24:4 K/BB ratio over his last four starts.
We’ve got Ranger Suarez on the mound, but he’s been trending in the wrong direction. He was brutal in July, going 0-3 with a 6.11 ERA and a 5.34 FIP in five starts last month.
The Marlins have a clear edge in the pitching matchup today. They’ve also been pretty good at home this year, going 33-22 at LoanDepot Park. Meanwhile, Philly’s 29-29 on the road with a minus-18 run differential.
It brings me no joy to say this, but I’m taking the Marlins on the moneyline today.
Jason Schandl: Mets-Royals UNDER
Turning our attention to my favorite team to bet against in the NL East, the Mets are up against one of the few teams that has covered the runline less often than they have in the Royals.
The Mets have found a perfect dance partner to hit the Under here though, as the Royals see the under hit at the 11th-highest rate in the MLB, which should play well with the Mets’ second-highest rate.
Jose Quintana has been great so far in two starts this season for the Mets, with a 3.27 ERA that reflects his 2.93 from 2022. On the other side Zack Greinke has been awful for the Royals (5.49 ERA). The way he’s pitching has been bad, for sure, but with a 4.63 SIERA and 4.46 xFIP, the advanced metrics tell us it’s not quite as bad as it looks on the surface.
And when we’re looking at the under hitting, we’re looking at how these teams and players will perform relative to what the betting markets expect, so if anything it helps our case that Greinke has been so publicly terrible.
I’m banking on the trends continuing here.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Brewers-Nationals UNDER
Elsewhere in the NL East tonight, the Nationals prepare for their second game of the series against Milwaukee. The Brewers’ struggles continued on Monday as they dropped their fourth straight contest. With Milwaukee in dire straits, I’m looking at the total for value tonight.
This contest is set to feature two pitchers with good momentum on their side in Freddy Peralta and Josiah Gray. Peralta’s thrown six innings of shutout ball in two of his past three starts, and he just racked up 13 strikeouts in his last appearance against the Reds.
Gray’s been rolling as well lately, recording just one earned run over his last two starts combined. He’s coming off of an outing against the Mets where he surrendered only two hits across 6.0 innings.
With the Nationals a candidate to sell even more players before the 6 p.m. ET deadline and the Brewers failing to put together a winning effort recently, I can see both teams’ offenses underwhelming. The talent on the mound tonight is just another reason to back the under.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.