Section 215’s Best Philly Betting Picks for 7/28 (Phillies Drop Bucs, More NL East)
By Tyler Maher
Friday brings a full day of baseball to bet on following Thursday’s five-game slate. That includes a return to action for the Phillies, who head to Pittsburgh still riding high from their big series win against Baltimore this week.
There’s more NL East action to bet on, too, so here are our top Philly sports betting picks for Friday.
Best Philadelphia Betting Picks: July 28
Tyler Maher: Phillies Moneyline @ Pirates
The Phillies are back in action on Friday following Thursday’s off day. After taking two of three from the Orioles at home this week, they hit the road to face the sinking Pirates on Friday.
Philly will kick things off with Zack Wheeler in the series opener. His 3.88 ERA looks a bit high after three straight seasons of sub-3.00 marks, but his NL-best 2.88 FIP and 5.8 K/BB ratio suggest he’s dealing with bad luck more than regression.
Pittsburgh has completely fallen apart in July after staying close to .500 through the end of June, going 6-15 with a minus-42 run differential this month. Tonight’s pitcher Mitch Keller hasn’t helped, getting rocked for 19 hits and 14 runs over his last two starts combined.
So while their overall numbers are similar, Wheeler’s been the better pitcher lately. The Phillies are also the better team as their superior record and run differential indicates.
This game could be close if Keller returns to form, but I expect Philly to win it.
Jason Schandl: Nationals Runline vs Mets
Something people often overlook in the betting world is that there’s a huge difference between being a bad team and being a bad team to bet on. Betting value is all about how a team performs relative to expectations.
The Nationals, for example, have the fourth-worst record in the majors. They obviously suck. But they’ve actually been one of the best teams at covering the runline, doing so 55.3% of the time (No. 4 in the majors).
On the other side, the Mets haven’t been quite as bad as Washington from a real-world perspective, but they’ve been much worse from a betting perspective. New York has covered the runline just 39.2% of the time — the second-lowest rate in the majors.
So, do I think the Nationals have a good shot at upsetting the Mets tonight with Max Scherzer on the mound? Not particularly, but I do like Washington to at least make this one competitive, especially because MacKenzie Gore seems to be coming into his own a bit with his ERA down to 4.37 and his skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) down to a very respectable 3.96.
If you’re in need of a sportsbook to make your plays, here are some of the best ones in the industry worth checking out:
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.