The Phillies are back in action on Tuesday after an off day, kicking off a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers. With the Marlins playing as well, there’s plenty of betting value to target in the NL East.
Meanwhile, James Harden’s recent trade buzz presents an opportunity to cash in on Tyrese Maxey’s Most Improved Player odds before a deal makes him a possible favorite.
Here are our editors’ top betting picks in Philadelphia sports today.
Best Philadelphia Betting Picks: July 18
Jason Schandl: Cardinals Moneyline vs. Marlins
Fighting for the second spot in the NL East, many Phillies fans are watching the Marlins about as closely as they’re tracking our own results. And if you’ve been doing that, you know that things have been pretty rough for the Marlins lately.
They had that series win over Philly before the All-Star break, but since the break they’re a winless 0-4.
The Cards’ bats aren’t the most dangerous in the majors, but their ranking in OPS jumps from 15th against southpaws to 6th against righties, and only five teams have a higher wRC+ against right-handed pitching on the year.
That spells trouble for Edward Cabrera, who has struggled to the tune of a 4.70 ERA on the year. He was shelled for 5 earned runs in 4.0 innings in his last start, and the Cardinals aren’t going to make things any easier on him.
Count on a Marlins loss tonight, which is almost as good as a Phillies win at this point.
Tyler Maher: Phillies Runline
After an off day on Monday, the Phillies open up a three-game series at home against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Both teams check in with nearly identical records, as the Phillies are 51-42 while the Brewers are 52-42.
We’re in a good spot at home tonight with Aaron Nola on the bump. While his overall numbers (8-6, 4.39 ERA) aren’t up to his usual standards, he’s been much better at Citizens Bank Park this year:
- Home: 3.40 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
- Away: 4.99 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
That gives us confidence heading into tonight’s matchup against a Milwaukee club that’s played over its head this year. The Brewers might be 10 games over .500, but they’ve been getting lucky based on their -8 run differential, which suggests their record should actually be two games below .500.
And while Milwaukee has been hot in July, we don’t need to fear its offense. The Brewers have scored just 9 runs over their last four games combined, so they’re not exactly crushing the ball right now.
Our lineup, on the other hand, should be able to feast on Julio Teheran. He’s been getting lit up lately, surrendering 13 runs and 16 hits (including 4 homers) over his last two starts combined. He also hasn’t pitched since July 3, so he’ll probably be a bit rusty.
All signs point to a Phillies win here, as we should be able to give Nola plenty of run support. Take Philly on the runline.
Isaiah De Los Santos: Tyrese Maxey Most Improved Player
The James Harden trade buzz isn’t going away. The former MVP has made it clear he wants to join the Los Angeles Clippers, and he’ll do anything – like show up to camp out of shape – to force Philly’s hand.
Ultimately, the 76ers will likely admit defeat in this battle and acquiesce. Assuming a deal happens, whether soon or months from now, Tyrese Maxey appears to be in prime position for a Most Improved Player-worthy season.
Maxey’s literally improved every year since entering the league, raising his PPG from 8.0 to 17.5, then up to 20.3 this past season. His true shooting percentage has only gotten better as well, rising to 60.5% in 2022-23. He’s done this while increasing his volume as a shooter, especially from deep (6.2 three-point attempts per game this past season).
The 22-year-old is firmly in the rising star category, but an entire campaign as Joel Embiid’s running mate and the Sixers’ top guard should rocket him into the stratosphere among the other bonafide stars.
If Maxey’s PPG ticks up a couple points higher, and he absorbs most of the 10.7 APG that Harden would leave behind, there’s no reason the young 76er shouldn’t win MIP. The recipe is clear as day, so fans should jump at his +1300 odds to win Most Improved Player on FanDuel Sportsbook before a Harden deal impacts them.
Don’t forget, anyone in PA who signs up through Section 215 will get a guaranteed $100 bonus just for placing your first $5 wager on FanDuel Sportsbook. That means if you bet $5 on the Phillies but the Brewers somehow win, you’ll still get that $100 bonus!
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.