The Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Diego Padres for the National League Pennant beginning this week. Who saw this coming from either team?
The Phillies should be confident after taking down the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves. Two division winners down. Now all they need to do is defeat the other National League Wild Card club.
As confident as we can be with this red-hot Phillies team, there are some concerns we need to talk about.
1) The Philadelphia Phillies aren’t getting anything out of Kyle Schwarber
The Philadelphia Phillies’ offense has been quite explosive in the postseason without the help of Kyle Schwarber. Just 1 for 20 with eight strikeouts; it’s pretty amazing they’ve been as successful as they have been without him hitting.
Phillies fans have gotten used to Schwarber being hot or cold. He led the National League in home runs during the regular season, but it came with only a .218 batting average and a league-high 200 strikeouts.
With Schwarber also hitting leadoff on a consistent basis, it seems like they’re starting off most games with an out already. He’s getting more at-bats than anyone else on the team, too. If the Schwarber drought continues, it’s something that could hold the Phillies back.
Of course, Rob Thomson is hoping Schwarber snaps out of it and becomes the other half of his streakiness for the rest of the postseason—beginning with the NLCS against the Padres. Schwarber didn’t accidentally hit 46 home runs this year. Right now, we’ll take any sort of production from him. Hit the ball far or hit it often. We don’t care. Just give us something.
2) The Philadelphia Phillies are facing a closer who has figured it out again
Josh Hader has figured it out with the Padres. The big trade deadline acquisition for the bullpen looked disastrous in the regular season. Hader was 1-1 with a 7.31 ERA in 16 innings of work for San Diego after being acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers.
In the postseason, Hader has been his old self again. The 1.23 ERA pitcher he was with the Brewers in 2021 has returned. This is not good news for Philadelphia.
Attacking the Padres bullpen is a good strategy for victory. It’s the exact formula they should have if they want to beat the Phillies. Relief pitchers are the only thing on the planet more fickle than high school friends once you all go off to college. You think you might be able to rely on some. The truth is, you never hear back from most ever again.
A strong, more effective Hader is trouble for any team the Padres will face. If he was serving up home runs, the Phillies would have a much better chance. San Diego will look to shorten games with their strong starting pitching staff the same way the Phillies hope to do with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, along with maybe even Ranger Suarez.
In a battle of bullpens, the Phillies and Padres match well. Hader can, however, give the Padres a slight edge.
3) The Philadelphia Phillies have no distinctive advantage over the Padres
What can the Phillies do better than the Padres? Home runs are one area where they were far better in the regular season. However, this comes with an asterisk. Juan Soto and Josh Bell weren’t with them all season, nor was Brandon Drury, who had a strong year at the plate himself. The only power hitter on the Padres roster throughout 2022 was Manny Machado, who is their personal Bryce Harper.
The starting pitchers from both teams are about equal. So are the already discussed bullpens, although Philadelphia’s proven itself to be better in the regular season. The Phillies would have an advantage when their lineup from top to bottom, but the Padres have too many good hitters capable of breaking out and carrying the team to victory.
Against the Cardinals and Braves, the Phillies didn’t have too many other qualities that helped them stand out. Being concerned about no advantage might be a bit of a reach. It hasn’t been an issue thus far.
How many teams, though, can Philadelphia win a series as an underdog? If they end up in the World Series, they’ll have to do it once more.
First on the agenda is to take down the Padres. Even if there is no one truly exceptional strength they have over San Diego, Philadelphia stands a chance.