Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola will make the difference one way or another

The Philadelphia Phillies do not lack for high profile players. From reigning MVP Bryce Harper to last year’s Cy Young runner-up Zack Wheeler to all-stars like J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos, there are a lot of guys on this team who need to live up to lofty expectations. But Aaron Nola, in my estimation, is the ultimate linchpin in all of this.

While it’s true that one player can’t drag a team across the finish line if multiple other key contributors fail for any reason, we now have enough of a sample size to show us that the Phillies’ success is tied directly to the effectiveness of Nola. And right now, Nola is rolling, like the team as a whole. Over his last seven starts, he features a 2.54 ERA and a bonkers 52:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The man deserves full credit for finding his groove this season as he tries to rebound from a down year in 2021.

But it’s those down periods, specifically the timing of them, that should be so worrisome for all of us going forward. Without being able to offer a concrete reason as to why, Nola has been very subpar in the month of June over the course of his career. Looking at his June performances from 2016 to 2021 (his MLB debut came in July 2015, if you recall), his walk rate goes up and opponent batting average spikes. As a result, his career June ERA is about a run and a half higher than his ERA in the months of May, July, and August. And this is even after factoring in his three excellent starts (and one lousy start) so far in June of 2022.

Aaron Nola’s performance will tell the tale of the 2022 Philadelphia Phillies.

The June issue is really a bizarre outlier, but one that can’t be ignored. Like clockwork, Aaron Nola just seems to hit some midseason wall after pitching very well out of the gate, then is able to reset and throw excellently over the summer months. Perhaps the fact that he’s turned in a very good June without hitting the skids this year gives real hope that this is the year he can finally make his first career MLB postseason appearance for the Phillies.

But even with any optimism surrounding Nola’s current status, there is the looming specter of the September swoon. Call it “wearing down”, call it “not knowing how to be clutch”, or something else entirely, but Nola has simply not been able to finish strong enough when this team needs him to at the end of the regular season.

Probably the most egregious example came in 2020. Yes, it was a bogus shortened season, but everyone and their mother made the playoffs that year. It was right there for the taking. Yet, there was Nola putting up a 6.60 ERA over his final three starts, all Phillies losses, and the club missed the postseason by a game.

And then there was last year, when Nola put up a 6.19 ERA over his six September starts. The Phillies finished further out of contention, but it was maddening to see Zack Wheeler ripping off big starts each time through the rotation only to watch Nola labor through six innings. Fair or not, it ultimately felt like a guy not pulling his weight, even if he had some terrible luck.

Speaking of said luck, maybe this is the year that Nola both pitches well and has a little bit of luck on his side, because it sure hasn’t been lately. His ghastly 4.63 ERA in 2021 was accompanied by a 3.37 mark in FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), meaning that Nola really was much more effective than his final numbers indicated. It was cold comfort to Phillies fans who watched him take a beating from opposing offenses, but those fancy analytics folks told us that Nola controlled things as well as he could have personally, and a correction was probably in order for 2022. So far, it looks like they’ve been right, as Nola’s 3.11 ERA is just a touch higher than his 2.94 FIP this year.

For his career, Nola’s ERA is about a quarter of a point higher than his FIP, suggesting that he’s a slightly better pitcher than he’s been given credit for by the average fan. In fact, that 2.94 FIP thus far in 2022 is the lowest mark of Nola’s career, which might be a hopeful indicator that he can turn in a peak performance this year. He could possibly even be in line to top his stellar 2018 performance.

Now, what does this all mean when it comes to the Phillies’ 2022 outlook?

Pitching every fifth day, Aaron Nola isn’t going to single-handedly get this team back to the playoffs for the first time since the Phillies’ mini-dynasty came all crashing down in 2011. But by pitching at the best level we’ve seen from him yet, he can give the team a fearsome duo at the top of the rotation that will make them hard to beat. Granted, other players have to either continue doing their jobs or step up from what they’re currently contributing. And Dave Dombrowski has to figure out a solution to the increasingly worrisome Zach Eflin situation.

In the end, though, this team can reach a new gear if their former (and possibly still current/future) ace Nola can turn in the kind of performance this year that he certainly seems capable of, along with getting the requisite luck for the final results to be commensurate with said performance.

Other than not leaving breaking balls out over the plate to get crushed, I can’t point out any keys to the success that Aaron Nola has enjoyed this year because I’m not a pitching guru. But my eyes show me a hurler exuding confidence each time he takes the mound. I truly hope this Nola is here for good, because the Philadelphia Phillies desperately need him. If this version of Nola sticks around, then we’ll finally see him toe the rubber in the MLB postseason for the first time in 2022.