Philadelphia 76ers: Danny Green’s contract has deceptive trade value

Over the course of three minutes, Danny Green went from an intriguing high-end role player who could draw interest from more than a few teams across the NBA as a fourth-to-seventh man – including the Philadelphia 76ers – to a distressed asset incompatible with many of the teams who would want his services.

You see, in Game 6 versus Miami, DG tore his ACL and LCL, a pair of injuries that usually require anywhere from nine to 12 months to fully recover from. While that could conceivably put Green back on the court by February, at almost 35 years old with an astonishing 24,974 minutes of professional basketball on his legs, many have operated under the assumption that an April return feels more realistic.

Now granted, could a team like the World Champion Golden State Warriors roster a player like Green with their spot in the playoffs a borderline guarantee? You bet; even if he can’t play in the regular season much or at all, Green’s value in the playoffs is time-honored and thus could be intriguing either as a vet minimum free agent or in a heavily discounted trade.

But if Green can go as soon as February, well, then his value goes up quite a bit, as everyone knows the NBA season doesn’t really start until after the All-Star Break. Fortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers’ small forward asserted that a February return is very much in the cards, which should be music to fans’ ears.

An early Danny Green return is good news for the Philadelphia 76ers.

In the NBA, a contract’s trade value is directly correlated to the amount of guaranteed money on the contract.

If, for example, a player’s contract is worth $50 million, but only $5 million of that is guaranteed – which isn’t really possible but hey, let’s go with it – their outgoing trade value is $5 million, even if their new team has to pay that full value should they remain on the team past the guaranteed date.

Why, you may ask, is this relevant? Well, because Green doesn’t have any guaranteed money on his deal and thus could be traded to any team with $0 needed in return money to make a deal work. That’s right, whereas another team would need something like $8-12 million in matching salary to make a deal for Green if his contract were guaranteed – which it will be come July – they can instead take his deal back for nothing but a draft pick, alongside two smaller contracts in a two-for-one deal, or in a swap for another non-guaranteed contract like the one currently belonging to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

You can see how a team well over the cap without a ton of moveable assets like, say, the Lakers, could view the addition of a playoff-ready performer like Green, who would normally be outside of their price range, as an intriguing prospect indeed.

If the Philadelphia 76ers really don’t want Danny Green on their roster this fall, they can release him now without owing a single penny more. If they want to trade his contract and take $10ish million in value back, they can guarantee his contract at any point over the next few weeks and get a deal done. But if Daryl Morey wants to try something a little less conventional, he could gauge the trade market for Green’s services on a non-guaranteed contract, as it opens up a whole new collection of teams who could possibly have interest in DG, especially if he is ready to go by February.