Philadelphia 76ers: Why are the Spurs so high on Keldon Johnson?

In the NBA, you have to give up something to get something.

Do you want a new 3 point shooting wing? Well, you’d better be willing to surrender a defender, ball-handler, or big of comparable value – plus or minus draft picks – to get a deal done. How about a chance at finding your next young franchise star? Well, you’d better be willing to stomach a whole lot of losing in the pursuit of lottery ping pong balls.

Even if a player demands to be traded, promises they will never step foot in the city ever again, and effectively tanks their value in a reckless pursuit of getting their way, very few teams are willing to give up an All-NBA-level player for pennies on the dollar, as doing so is the easiest way to get fired from your job; just ask Tom Thibodeau, who was fired two weeks after trading Jimmy Butler for Dario Saric and Robert Covington.

So, with that in mind, why are the San Antonio Spurs reportedly withholding Keldon Johnson from trade conversations with the Philadelphia 76ers? Do they know something about the 2019 first-round pick that we don’t?

Do the Spurs actually want to make a deal with the Philadelphia 76ers?

Keldon Johnson is a darn good basketball player.

A one-and-done player at Kentucky, Johnson made a name for himself with a unique highlight reel loaded with high-flying dunks, crafty steals, open 3s, and a particularly impressive buzzer-beater from the logo in a 73-70 win over Seaton Hall. Johnson shot 3s at an alright clip, hitting 1.2 of his 3.2 attempts from beyond the arc a night for a 38.1 shooting percentage, averaged 5.9 rebounds as a 6-foot-5 wing, and ultimately finished out the season with the third-most average points per game on the team behind fellow future first-round picks P.J. Washington and Tyler Herro.

While these numbers didn’t vault Johnson into the conversation for a spot in the draft lottery, most evaluators felt fairly confident that the former five-star recruit would hear his name called in the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft.

Fortunately, that happened. With an additional first-round pick in their back pocket thanks to the Kawhi Leonard trade, the San Antonio Spurs drafted Johnson 29th overall, 10 picks after they selected the other Luka, Luka Šamanić, 19th overall out of Petrol Olimpija in Ljubljana, Slovenia. Though he only appeared in 17 games for the Spurs as a rookie, Johnson averaged 9.1 points in 17.7 minutes of action and looked like a shoo-in to become a rotation player when he returned to the court as a sophomore.

Fortunately, again, that too happened. Johnson saw his minutes and points rise to 12.8 and 28.5, respectively. He also averaged nearly twice as many rebounds and twice as many shots from the field, even if his per 36 efficiency dropped across the board. While Johnson’s 3 point efficiency dropped considerably from year one to two, averaging a near-identical number of made shots on twice as many attempts, he wasn’t pushed particularly hard to be a high-volume shooter for the Spurs in 2020-21, as players like Derrick White, Patty Mills, Lonnie Walker, and Rudy Gay all averaged at least four attempts from beyond the arc per game.

So… what gives? Johnson seems like a fine player, but nothing about those numbers really screams “keeper” when a player of Ben Simmons’ caliber is in play.

Do the Spurs think Johnson is the second coming of Kawhi Leonard? I mean, both are non-lottery athletic wings with long arms, but right out of the gate, Leonard was a better 3 point shooter and a quality defender. Johnson, by contrast, is still finding his footing as a defender and lacks a reliable outside shot. He’s a good driver, that’s for sure, and has the potential to become a steal-per-game performer, but at this point, he isn’t quite ready to be a top-3 player on a championship team.

If the Philadelphia 76ers are going to trade Simmons, they sort of need a player with that pedigree to complete a deal.

Now granted, are there still packages the Spurs could offer up for Simmons sans Johnson? Sure. Dejounte Murray is a good point guard who’s a reliable 3 point shot away from being great. Derrick White is a speedy shooter who would look good playing off of Tyrese Maxey in the backcourt, and the team has a number of exciting older options like Doug McDermott, Bryn Forbes, and our old pal Thaddeus Young who would look great in a Sixers uniform.

Heck, if the Sixers really want a 6-foot-5 guard/forward drafted in the first round, they could always ask for Devin Vassell, who put up comparable numbers to Johnson’s rookie season in 2020 and has a similar player profile only with a higher defensive ceiling. While neither player is going to make or break the Philadelphia 76ers’ playoff chances in 2021-22, they do present unique opportunities for success moving forward, even if their timelines don’t quite line up with that of Joel Embiid.

Do I believe the San Antonio Spurs want to hold onto Keldon Johnson? Yes, yes, I do. Do I think the Philadelphia 76ers could still snatch him away if they really wanted him in a trade for three-time All-Star Ben Simmons? Yes, yes, I do too, but honestly, I don’t see the point. While the 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs are a good team a la the mid-2010s Atlanta Hawks or Doc Rivers’ post-Blake Griffin Los Angeles Clippers, they’re looking for a star for a reason; they don’t currently have one. If the Sixers want to swap out Simmons for a star-caliber player, that won’t happen in San Antonio, making any “keeper” requests feel rather pointless.