The MLB trade deadline is nine days away, and a majority of the discussion surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies has been in regards to two positions: bullpen and center field.
For what it’s worth, both positions unquestionably need to be upgraded moving forward. The Phillies still own one of the worst bullpens in the league, and their CF position has been a bit of a revolving door since the season began. Odubel Herrera and Travis Jankowski have both provided spurts of production at times, but neither should be viewed as longterm starters.
Byron Buxton and Starling Marte have been named as possible trade targets at the position.
When it comes to the bullpen, the closer position is the main role that needs to be filled. Hector Neris blew six saves before being relieved of full-time closing duties, with Jose Alvarado not performing much better as Neris’ first replacement. Lefty Ranger Suarez has looked decent in the role over the past few weeks, but would be far better suited for a long-man type of role, where he’s able to stretch out over 2-3 innings of work once or twice a week.
With all of that said, one area of the Phillies roster that has somewhat gone under the radar in terms of needing to be upgraded is that of the starting rotation. With the team currently employing a five-man rotation that contains both Vince Velasquez and Matt Moore, it’s not too hard to paint the picture of it needing to be improved upon.
If they want to seriously make a run at winning the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies need to add a staring pitcher.
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At first glance, many would make the argument that the Philadelphia Phillies rotation has been one of their biggest strengths this season – which is partially true.
The Phillies starting pitching fWAR of 8.9 currently ranks seventh best in all of baseball, but over half of that production has come from Zack Wheeler (4.6 fWAR), with the other 48.3% coming from Aaron Nola (2.2) and Zach Eflin (2.1).
Vince Velasquez has equated for 0.2 fWAR due to his solid stretch of games back in May, which is primarily being offset by the likes of Chase Anderson’s negative total. Matt Moore has an fWAR of 0.0.
It’s also worth mentioning that Eflin was recently placed on the injured list, and he does have a not-so-pretty history of struggling to remain consistent as the season progresses (2019, for example).
The Philadelphia Phillies are one solid starter away from having a top five rotation in baseball.
It’s not uncommon for a team’s starting staff to be carried by 2-3 pitchers, but the Phillies are in a position where they could have a top five rotation in the league if they were simply able to get some level of production out of their back-end starters.
The New York Mets for example, who currently rank third in starting pitching fWAR, have gotten fWAR totals of 0.3 or higher from six different starting pitchers. The deep rotation that the Mets possess is the biggest reason they own sole possession of first place in the NL East, with it only set to improve following the return of Noah Snydergaard and/or Carlos Carrasco.
More productive fourth and fifth starters would also have a positive trickle down effect on the Phillies bullpen, as they would (in theory) require a smaller workload over the course of a full week. Both Moore and Velasquez are barely getting through four innings on a consistent basis, which is putting a ton of stress on the Phillies already bad bullpen to take down huge chunks of game action at a time.
Acquiring an extra starter is easier said than done, and I can’t say I’ve seen the Phillies connected to a whole lot of names as of late. The team of course attended Cole Hamels‘ workout last week, and further trade targets should be made available as we get closer to the trade deadline. Moving someone like Bailey Falter or Christopher Sanchez into the rotation on a full-time basis is another strategy worth exploring, but would also further deplete the team’s bullpen of long-relief arms.
Ultimately speaking, even if Dombrowski is able to swing some sort of miracle trade for a Byron Buxton or a Craig Kimbrel, this roster still feels one starting pitcher away.
How/if the Philadelphia Phillies plan to fill that void? My guess is honestly as good as yours. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯