The Philadelphia Phillies should be in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason.
Despite their woes in the bullpen, the Philadelphia Phillies actually had quite a bit of success when it came to their starting rotation. Aaron Nola finished the season with a 3.28 ERA and the fifth most strikeouts in the MLB, new addition Zack Wheeler finished with a 2.96 ERA and the fourth highest WAR in all of baseball, and Zach Eflin concluded his “breakout season” by recorded a sub-4.00 ERA for the first time in his professional career.
The addition of Wheeler helped a ton, and an emerging Spencer Howard projects to provide a bigger boost in 2021. However, the Philadelphia Phillies will still likely look to add a solidified #3 to their rotation with Jake Arrieta’s contract finally coming off the books.
With that in mind, here are ten (yes ten!) free agent starters who could peak the Phillies’ interest:
Trevor Bauer
2020 Team: Cincinnati Reds
2020 Salary: $17.5 million
I looked at Trevor Bauer and what he brings to the table earlier this offseason (Should the Philadelphia Phillies pursue Trevor Bauer this offseason?), so I won’t spend too much time discussing him and his abilities. Simply put, he’s coming off a career year and will likely command the largest pitching contract on the open market.
Spotrac.com currently has his projected value set at $21.7 million, but he could easily surpass that number this winter. The Yankees just lost a series primarily due to their lack of elite pitching behind Gerrit Cole, and they could easily opt to splash big money on yet another free agent ace.
Marcus Stroman
2020 Team: New York Mets
2020 Salary: $12 million
In my opinion, the second best starting pitcher available on the market this offseason, Marcus Stroman presents a solid consolation prize to the before mentioned Bauer. If the Philadelphia Phillies are dead set on making a big time upgrade to their rotation, but get priced out of Bauer, “settling” for Stroman would be a really solid second option.
Stroman had an extremely productive first half to his 2019 season, pitching to a tune of a 2.96 ERA and making the All-Star game as a Toronto Blue Jay. He was then traded away to the New York Mets at the deadline, appearing in eleven starts for them.
Stroman chose to opt out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns, which could in all reality help lower his asking price on the open market. He still appears to be in solid pitching shape, but you never know with someone who hasn’t played at game speed in over year.
A master of both timing and pitch control, Stroman would slot in quite beautifully behind Nola and Wheeler for the next couple of seasons. It doesn’t hurt that a move for the right-hander would once again damage the Mets and their respective pitching staff.
Cole Hamels
2020 Team: Atlanta Braves
2020 Salary: $18 million
Ah yes, good ol’ Cole Hamels. Despite initially breaking the hearts of Phillies fans everywhere by signing with the Atlanta Braves this past offseason, Philly somewhat got the last laugh as Hamels pitched just 3.1 innings while dawning Atlanta’s navy blue.
The veteran lefty commanded quite a hefty price tag on the open market last winter, somewhat pricing the Phils out of a move for their former World Series MVP. Hamels had repeatedly expressed his desire to return to Philadelphia one day, but the $18 million that he ultimately received was simply too much for the Phillies to match.
After a summer’s worth of lingering shoulder issues, Hamels asking price should plummet this upcoming offseason.
Set to turn 37 years old in 2021, putting too much faith in Hamels as a stereotypical #3 might be foolish, especially considering how badly be burned the Braves here in 2020. At best, Hamels is a #4/#5, and the Phillies would have to be prepared for him missing games here and there.
It would be a great signing in terms of emotional appeal, but it might be a silly one on paper. 100% depends on what Hamels health status and asking price look like this free agency.
Robbie Ray
2020 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks/Toronto Blue Jays
2020 Salary: $9.43 million
Just over a year ago and Robbie Ray was the heartthrob of the MLB. His strikeout numbers were absolutely through the roof, and scouts around the league felt it was only a matter of time before he returned to his All-Star caliber form of 2017 (2.89 ERA).
Ray was a common name tossed around at both last year’s trade deadline and this year’s trade deadline, with the Blue Jays being the ones to eventually pull the trigger on him. Ray had struggled mightily through the first half of the 2020 season, posting an ERA in the high 6.00s through his first 11 starts. The Blue Jays, making a push for the expanded postseason, were hoping that they would end up with a better version of Ray down the stretch.
Well, Toronto kinda got a better version of Ray, but still nothing that was all that special. He recorded a 4.79 ERA across 20.2 innings, while his strikeout rate dipped by 1.6 Ks per nine innings.
At just 29 years old Ray will still likely drum up some interest on the open market, but it’s tough to know just what version of Ray we’ll all see throughout the rest of his career. He’s flashed legit Cy Young potential in the past, but has failed to keep it up consistently. The Philadelphia Phillies have a lot of faith in pitching coach Bryan Price, and desperately need a lefty in their rotation, so taking a bounce-back shot on someone like Ray could very well be in the cards.
Masahiro Tanaka
2020 Team: New York Yankees
2020 Salary: $23 million
After seven long years of pitching for the New York Yankees, the Japanese enigma that is Masahiro Tanaka is finally set to hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent. He made just over $150 million pitching in the navy/white pinstripes and was selected to two All Star games. Now, he has an opportunity to cash out once more with a different team.
It might very well be in the Yankees best interest to simply re-sign Tanaka this winter, especially considering the fact that pitching was one of their biggest problems down the stretch. However, with guys like Bauer and JT Realmuto hitting the open market, the Yankees front office may have different targets in mind.
Tanaka is set to turn 32 in early November, which could very well be a turn-off to potential suitors when talking about a multi-year, big money extension.
Tanaka has a career ERA of 3.74 and a career WHIP of 1.130. He’s been a super solid middle-of-the-rotation arm throughout the entirety of his career, but never someone who has approached that of “ace” status. Tanaka would immediately upgrade the Philadelphia Phillies rotation, no questions asked, but he also feels like the type of guy a team will overpay for due to his high-profile name.
Taijuan Walker
2020 Team: Toronto Blue Jays
2020 Salary: $2.37 million
Right-hander Taijuan Walker has had a super weird MLB career up until the point, bouncing around from team to team on one-year contracts. After finally settling in with Toronto this past season, the 28 year old will likely be looking to finally cash out.
Walker had a decent enough start to his professional career, hanging around a high 3.00-low 4.00 ERA during his first couple of seasons with the Mariners and the Diamondbacks. However, after suffering a torn UCL, and undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, things weren’t looking too hot for Walker’s outward projection.
He worked out for 20 different MLB scouts this past offseason, but no-one seemed all that interested. He ultimately settled on a one-year/$2 million deal to return to his old club in Seattle.
After five promising starts with the Mariners, Seattle promptly traded him, shipping him out to the talent-hungry Toronto Blue Jays. To put it bluntly, Walker absolutely exploded upon arriving in Canada, posting a 1.37 ERA across 26.1 innings for the Blue Jays. It turned out to be one of the best trades of 2020, and one that the Mariners probably wish they could have back.
The Blue Jays would ideally like to have both Robbie Ray and Walker back for 2021, but money does start to become an issue at some point, especially post COVID-19 revenue loss. If Toronto can’t find a way to keep both, Walker instantly becomes one of the most intriguing free agents in all of baseball, and a name that the Philadelphia Phillies would preferably have their eyes on.
Chris Archer
2020 Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
2020 Salary: $11 million
Once regarded as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, Chris Archer now might be struggling to find a job this upcoming offseason. After the worst season of his career in 2019, Archer then missed the entirety of the 2020 season due to surgery. Needless to say, it’s been a rough two years for the former ace.
Archer absolutely dominated the American League during his time with the Rays, seeing himself named to two All Star games while also finishing top-5 in Cy Young voting during the 2015 season. Across seven years with Tampa Bay, Archer posted a 3.69 ERA through 177 starts.
Obviously, Archer isn’t that same dude anymore. He’s not been great since being traded away to Pittsburgh, and his recent injury woes only add to that list of concerns. It’s even more concerning that Archer almost immediately regressed once he left Tampa Bay, as they have a history of working some sort of voodoo magic with their pitchers. It’s quite possible that Archer was simply a product of their well-oiled pitching machine.
Regardless, Archer is a savvy veteran with postseason experience who will be looking for a rotation spot this offseason, and the Philadelphia Phillies are just down the road. It all kind of gives off “Arrieta vibes”, but you never know.
*Note: The Pirates do have an $11 million club-option for Archer in 2021, but there’s very little reason they would pick it up.*
Jose Quintana
2020 Team: Chicago Cubs
2020 Salary: $10.5 million
Prior to his dishwashing induced thumb injury that he suffered this past offseason (I’m not joking, he lacerated a nerve in his thumb washing dishes), Jose Quintana projected to be one of the more sought after starting pitchers during the 2021 free agency period. Now, after a full year away from the major leagues, the Columbian right-hander could see less action than initially expected on the open market.
Similar to that of the before mentioned Tanaka, Quintana has been a really solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the majority of his MLB career. His ERA has hovered right at 3.73, and he made just the one All Star game in 2016.
Believe it or not, Quintana has spent the entirety of his nine year professional career pitching in the city of Chicago, spending time with both the White Sox and the Cubs. This could lead him to prioritize staying with the Cubs this offseason, or it could be reason for him to seek a new city to live in moving forward.
Interesting note about Quintana: he spent time with the New York Yankees minor league organization while Joe Girardi was still in command there. It’s a faint connection, but something that could possibly play in the Philadelphia Phillies favor.
Garrett Richards
2020 Team: San Diego Padres
2020 Salary: $9.24 million
It’s unlikely that the Padres would allow one of their better starting pitchers to walk out the door considering the fact that they considered themselves contenders at this year’s trade deadline, but with contract extensions looming for a few of their star players, it’s possible that they feel added money for Garrett Richards simply isn’t in their best interest.
After an injury-riddled 2019 season, Richards bounced back in 2020 in a big way. he posted a 4.03 ERA through 14 games for San Diego, even operating as a reliever at times when asked to do so.
Soon to be 33 years of age, it’s unlikely that you’ll ever see Richards pitch to the level that he did back during his Angels days (3.54 ERA across eight seasons), but he would at minimum provide the Philadelphia Phillies with a versatile option at the back of their rotation. If/when the postseason rolls around, he’s someone who can operate as that “long reliever” coming out of the bullpen.
Richards is an analytic darling, as both his slider and his curveball rank towards the top of the league in terms of spin rate, and his fastball has a wicked amount of movement to it. He ideally won’t come at a huge asking price either.
Drew Smyly
2020 Team: San Francisco Giants
2020 Salary: $4.09 million
I had to include this option at the end of my list because I knew some people would likely click off (lol), but Drew Smyly is a legitimate choice for a back-end rotation spot at this point in time. After a solid 2020 season with ex-Phillies manager Gabe Kapler out in San Fran, the veteran lefty has now put together 17 solid consecutive starts.
A midseason “bottom-of-the-barrel” addition from Matt Klentak last offseason, Smyly arrived in Philly and somewhat rejuvenated his major league career. He allowed just 31 earned runs through close to 70 innings with the Phillies, and proved to be a semi-reliable option down the stretch. He wasn’t great by any stretch of the imagination, but his 4.45 ERA was a step in the right direction for someone who had essentially been out of the league since 2016.
Smyly capitalized on his 2019 season, dropping his ERA down to a 3.42 while with the Giants in 2020. For what it’s worth, that’s 0.55 points better than Eflin’s. Smyly is also left-handed, something the Phils have struggled obtaining over the last handful of seasons.
Bringing Smyly back as a #5, or even a long reliever within the bullpen would only add to the Philadelphia Phillies shaky pitching depth. He might not necessarily want to leave his gig out in San Fran, but it could be worth kicking the tires on.