Philadelphia Phillies: The Zach Eflin “breakout” is never happening

Don’t get fooled by Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin.

We all know how the old saying goes: “Fool me once, shame on you. Full me twice, shame on me”. When it comes to Zach Eflin and the Philadelphia Phillies, we’re closing in on fool me number 800.

Acquired in a trade with the San Diego Padres back in 2014, Eflin entered the Phillies system as their fourth best prospect (according to “Baseball America“). He was touted as one of the highest ceiling pitchers in the Phillies organization, and ever since then, management has been desperately trying to make him stick.

The soft-throwing righty struggled mightily during his first two seasons of major league play, recording ERAs of 5.54 and 6.16. He settled in a bit more during years three and four, as his ERA dipped down into the mid-4.00s, however it was never anything to really write home about.

A good chunk of fans viewed Eflin pretty highly heading into the 2019 season, with plenty projecting a “year four breakout” from the 25 year old. He had bits and spurts of above average play, but it was all tarnished with a month of July where he went 0-4 with an 11.88 ERA. Eflin essentially shut himself down following that disastrous stretch, opting to hang out on the injured list with a “heavy body” for a few weeks.

Eflin’s absence really put the Phillies in a tough spot at the time, as starter Jake Arrieta was also out due to injury. Former manager Gabe Kapler was forced to use guys like Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas at the time, which pretty much concluded the 2019 Philadelphia Phillies dream of sneaking into the Wild Card.

As per usual, hype surrounding Eflin picked up during this past Spring Training and it boiled all the way over into the start of the 2020 season. People were citing a new and improved sinker, and Eflin was rocking a fancy mustache which seriously boosted his cool factor on the mound.

Eflin had a pretty decent debut to the season, pitching 4.0 innings and not allowing any earned runs. Obviously the Phillies would like to see their starters pitch deeper into games, but five strikeouts and just four hits in Eflin’s first start of the season was something to feel mildly optimistic about.

Alas, just one game later and Eflin was back to his old ways.

Facing off against the Baltimore Orioles of all teams, Eflin allowed four earned runs and seven hits through 6.0 innings. While he did record an impressive ten strikeouts, the simple truth is that this is about as good as it gets with Eflin.

Four runs through six innings definitely isn’t horrible by any means, but it’s definitely not good. Phillies fans have longed called for this magical “breakout” to occur with Eflin, where he explodes onto the scene as a legit #2/#3 in the rotation. Five years into his career now, it’s simply not happening.

Eflin did flash some new sinker velocity and some impressive movement on his two-seam fastball early in the ballgame, before inevitably falling into his old routine of hanging pitches over the plate. The Orioles made contact with ease, including a monster solo homer during the top of the fifth inning.

If you want to label Eflin as a solid #5 in the rotation or maybe even an “okay” #4, I’m all for that. He’s sat around a 4.20 ERA the last two seasons and that’s totally reasonable for someone in the back half of your rotation. However, expectations are key when it comes to a player like Eflin. The days for projecting a huge step forward each season need to be behind us. The former Padre has shown us time and time again that this is just what he is, a slightly below average starter.