Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Eflin will likely benefit from shortened season

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin should benefit from 2020’s shortened season.

After a seriously tough first couple of years in the MLB, it finally looked like Zach Eflin was starting to settle into a promising role for the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite posting ERAs of 5.54, 6.16, and 4.34 the previous three seasons, Eflin came out absolutely firing to start 2019. Through his first 11 starts, he was 5-5 with a team-best 3.02 ERA.

In fact, the 25-year-old righty was performing so well that there was even some quiet talk of him potentially making his first All-Star game.

Unfortunately, that fantastic form did not last for Eflin. By the end of the season, Eflin’s ERA had risen to 4.13, and he had posted career-highs in hits allowed, runs allowed, earned runs allowed, and games lost. Things got so bad at one point that he actually posted an 11.88 ERA through four consecutive losses during the month of July. Citing a “heavy body” (whatever that means), Eflin was relegated to the bullpen for his midsummer woes.

While it seems unlikely that Eflin will ever develop into a consistently viable option for the Phillies like they had hoped, there’s strong reason to believe that he could succeed in a shortened 2020 campaign.

Not only did Eflin play his best in 2019 during the first half of the season, but when looking at his career splits, he tends to follow a similar trend. Across four seasons and 74 total starts, Eflin has posted a 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.68 ERA in the second half.

Eflin clearly starts to wear down as the season progresses, and a shortened season allows him a unique opportunity to avoid that second-half slump that routinely occurs. Assuming he makes 10-12 starts this year, we could very well see the best version of Zach Eflin yet.