Villanova Basketball: Wildcats continue to rely on 3-point shooting

The Wildcats attempted a season high 41 shots from deep while dominating Alabama in the round of 32.

The Villanova Wildcats have thrived from the 3-point line this season. Their usual starting lineup averages 39 percent from beyond the arc. In their last five games, including the 41 3-point attempts against Alabama, Villanova is a combined 69-for-156 (44 percent) from deep.

The high volume of 3-pointers has worked for Jay Wright and his team, as they are the No. 1 team in offensive efficiency according to Kenpom, and have the highest points per game this season at 87.1. Rodger Sherman of the Ringer wrote more about Villanova’s success from deep.

"More than 47 percent of the field goals Villanova has attempted to this point in the season are 3s, 12th nationally and second most of any NCAA tournament team. It also shoots the 11th-best overall percentage from 3, making more than 40 percent of its attempts as a team. Combine a ton of attempts with an impressively high accuracy rate, and Villanova has drilled 419 3-pointers this year. If the top-seeded Wildcats win their Sweet 16 game against no. 5 seed West Virginia on Friday, they’ll have a good chance of breaking the record for 3s in a season, currently held by the 2007 VMI team that attempted 42 per game and managed to hit 441 in total."

There is no doubt that Villanova owes a great deal of success to their game from the perimeter, but teams shooting a high frequency of 3-point shots don’t usually fare well in the tournament, as it only takes one off day to get bounced.

In the regular season, the luxury of having a bad game, regrouping and coming back stronger is no longer an option. The Wildcats have attempted 68 3-point shots in their two tournament games. Only one national champion in the history of the tournament has averaged more than 25 shots from beyond the arc per game, and only three have averaged more than 20 attempts per game (including Villanova’s 2016 team that averaged 24 3’s a game). Should Nova fans be concerned?

Below is a table showing how Villanova has fared in their four losses this season from the perimeter.

Looking at these games, Villanova seems to lose if they get below 35 percent, although that game with Butler may be an outlier. Against Butler, who went off on their home court going 15-for-22 from 3-point range, Villanova tried to go bucket-for-bucket, which didn’t work in their favor. Also, Villanova has been able to win games even when they shot below 30 percent from 3-point range (against Seton Hall when they went 8-for-36 from the perimeter and won 69-68 in overtime).

Both sides of this argument are valid. On one hand, Villanova’s stellar 3-point shooting is what’s got them this far. On the other hand, the high variance involved with this style of play can’t be ignored.

Reviewing their game against Alabama, a happy medium exists. If the 3-point shots that Villanova’s shooting aren’t being forced, the players should feel free to shoot at will. Donte DiVincenzo’s contested 3-pointers in the first half against the Crimson Tide may not have been the best looks, but he sunk them anyways. In situations similar to that, when a player has the hot hand, how can you consider other scoring options, especially if your top player, Jalen Brunson, is on the bench with two fouls?

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If the 3-pointers aren’t forced, and every player is creating ball movement while exploring scoring options, and not glued to the 3-point line, the Wildcats will continue to win games. Villanova’s diversity in their offensive scheme, like Brunson’s isolation in the post or Omari Spellman’s jumper from the top of the key, will allow them to continue to succeed. Or at least we’ll this Friday when the Wildcats take on West Virginia in what is expected to be a very tough Sweet 16 battle.