Sixers should bank on retaining Joel Embiid after this season
A contract extension was a fallacy since the day of his second surgery, and now there’s little incentive for the Sixers to sign their injury-prone star to a large contract.
The Sixers have one of the most polarizing young stars in the NBA. Joel Embiid‘s talents are unquestioned, and he has proven to be a difference maker in his 31 career game. In fact, I’d go as far as saying if he were healthy, he’d already be the best center in the league. In that world, the Sixers would quickly designate him the 5-year rookie max, which would have maximized the length of time he, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz would remain more affordable.
But that’s not this world. Now, the Sixers are in this odd pickle where they must balance how they’ll pay the big man who hasn’t proven he can stay on the court. There were false rumors about Embiid sitting out 5-on-5 scrimmages due to contract negotiations, but it brings the obvious issue back into the spotlight.
The Sixers are going to have to end up overpaying for Embiid somehow. Either they throw him a max extension now, or they wait until free agency where he will almost undoubtedly have multiple max contract offers, as NJ.com’s Jake Pavorsky explains.
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There’s no incentive for either side to come to an extension agreement. The Sixers won’t want to give Embiid the max without some proof of stability. Embiid won’t sign below the max now because even if he plays just half the season a bottom-feeder team like the Chicago Bulls will likely offer him max money either way.
There are risks for both sides, too, more so for the Sixers. If the Sixers don’t come to an agreement below the max, and Embiid is injured, they can risk having to match a max offer sheet anyway or watch him walk away. Embiid could see the market turn on him like it did Noel, however, his talents are more transcendent than his former teammate, even with the injury problems.
The Sixers should consider giving the max to Embiid if his camp would agree to partially guaranteed money using games played as an anchor. But again, is Embiid willing to bet on himself that way, or bet on the market to give him significant money as he stands as an injured big.
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The most likely scenario will be the Sixers matching an offer next summer, with or without proof that Embiid is able to stay on the court. It’s not an ideal scenario, but Philadelphia is handcuffed. They could just let him walk, but then the Sixers lose a huge part of their young core. The reality is, this is a lose-lose situation for the organization unless Embiid overcomes historical precedent.