76ers: Should they consider Dennis Smith Jr?
The 76ers will be working out freshman phenom point guard Dennis Smith Jr. before the 2017 NBA draft. His game, and his numbers compare favorably to former MVP Derrick Rose. Should they consider him with the 3rd pick?
Entering the draft with a tremendous need at point guard, the 76ers surely and rightfully have their eyes on the explosive 19 year old from NC State. Saying that Dennis Smith Jr. is “super athletic” simply wouldn’t do him justice. At times the kid looks like he is wearing spring-loaded shoes, and I would imagine the rim thinks “oh crap, this is gonna hurt” whenever it sees Smith Jr. leaping towards it for a dunk. He’s got the kind of bounce that makes scouts and GMs salivate, just as Derrick Rose once did.
Watching the tape, Dennis Smith Jr. definitely has a lot of Derrick Rose-type qualities in his game. At 6’3” 195 pounds they are nearly identical in size and quickness. Both are ball-dominant guards that can get to the basket with ease, have the ability to leave defenders in the dust, and create quality shots from either inside or outside the paint.
The disconcerting part however, is Smith Jr’s inability to make those shots consistently. Let’s take a look at a few of their college shooting statistics.
FG% 3P% TS% EFG%
Smith Jr – 46 36 56 52
Rose – 48 34 56 52
His effective field goal percentage is less than ideal for a high volume shooter. As the three-point shot has become more prevalent, 50 percent from the floor just won’t cut it anymore. Smith Jr. will need to work extra hard on his jumpshot, something Rose refused to do. Remember that the three-point line is over two feet further in the NBA than it is in college. Derrick Rose was never able to hit consistently from distance and it ended up making his game nearly one-dimensional as teams finally learned how to defend him.
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To be fair, Smith Jr.’s numbers should be taken into context. Name another NC State player NOT named Dennis Smith Jr….i’ll wait.
His surrounding talent was pretty dreadful this season. Smith Jr. didn’t have the same luxury as Kentucky or Duke players, where the majority of their team was comprised of the nation’s top players. Opponents were able to gameplan for him and him alone.
Even with NC State finishing at an abysmal 15-17 this season, what Dennis Smith Jr.was able to do was pretty impressive, all things considered. His per-40 minute stat-line is nothing to scoff at, as he averaged 21 points, five rebounds, seven assists, two steals, and half a block.
So should they consider him with the 3rd overall pick?
No.
Dennis Smith Jr.is in the “unfortunate” situation of declaring in a season where the draft class is absolutely loaded, and loaded with a bunch of other players who quite frankly are better than he is. The key to drafting successfully is all about finding value players. The 76ers would be making a major reach by taking Dennis Smith Jr.at number three. A mistake that a team rebuilding for years can ill afford to make.
So should they consider him with picks 5-10?
Yes.
If the 76ers find themselves in a trade-down scenario, Dennis Smith Jr. could be their guy.
At 5-10 he would presumably be the best point guard available and the 76ers would have likely netted a starter-caliber player from the trade.
Smith Jr. could potentially thrive as the starting point guard of the 76ers. The burden to carry a team would immediately be lifted off his shoulders, and complementing the trio of Simmons-Saric-Embiid would allow him to showcase his passing ability. With opposing teams no longer solely focusing their efforts on stopping him, he will be able to do what he does best, get to the basket and score.
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Dennis Smith Jr.truly could be the next Derrick Rose. He might not be the 2011 MVP-version, but the 76ers won’t need him to be. He would add to a young trio of high-potential players, instantly ignite the offense, and surely scare the hell out of NBA rims across the league.