Sixers: The Volatile History Of The Fourth Position In The Lottery

By George Kondoleon | May 9, 2017

May 17, 2016; New York, NY, USA; Philadelphia 76ers head coach Brett Brown represents his team during the NBA draft lottery at New York Hilton Midtown. The Philadelphia 76ers received the first overall pick in the 2016 draft. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

With one week away from the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery, here’s a look at the history of the fourth position, which the Sixers currently hold.

Every May for the past few seasons, the NBA Draft Lottery has been made a holiday for Sixers fans. As the team continuously found themselves with high chances to snag the top pick in the draft and build on a promising future, the city of Philadelphia has made it a special event.

Spike Eskin’s yearly lottery party gets fans excited about the event, and this year will be no different. The Sixers finished with the fourth worst record in the NBA, earning them a 11.90% chance to jump up to the top pick in the draft (not including the chances of the Kings pick swap destroying the world).

The history of the slot is a volatile one. In the 33 draft lotteries to date, the team with the fourth worst record only stayed put at that position three times. The Charlotte Bobcats were one of those teams in 2004, but only due to a locked position in their inaugural season. Essentially, two teams only stayed put with a chance to move up or down.

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The pick moved up 12 times; thrice at the top position and the second pick and six times towards the third pick. Somewhat promising numbers. There are some variables however. From 1985-1989, each team had equal odds of obtaining the top pick. In that stretch, the pick dropped to six twice, the third pick twice, and the first pick one time. The team that jumped up to the top spot were the San Antonio Spurs, who stole David Robinson from the rest of the league in 1987.

The Milwaukee Bucks in 1994 and the New Orleans Hornets in 2012 were the only other teams to jump from fourth to first. Glenn Robinson and Anthony Davis were the results, respectively. So while the pick moved up 12 out of 33 times, the pick also dropped 18 times.

The most common position was fifth, which has conveyed 11 times. The sixth pick conveyed six times, and the Sacramento Kings were the sole team to drop to the seventh position thanks to the rarity of the Orlando Magic winning the top pick with the lowest pre-lottery odds. The Sixers held the fourth position just one time prior, which jumped up one spot in 1995 where the team selected Jerry Stackhouse.

The Sixers upcoming draft will look to complete a talented young core. With the team being fourth and in need of another complement to Ben Simmons, many have pegged the high-scoring Kentucky guard Malik Monk as the main pick if the draft order were to hold once again. If Monk is the Sixers top priority, they should be in a position to draft him considering prior history.

The talent from fourth to eighth picks are marginal in difference, so the most common outcome (fifth) conveying would still give the Sixers either Monk, or a different top five talent. Of the Sixers 17 lottery appearances, the team has jumped up at least one spot seven of those times.

Now, adding in the increased chances of the Kings jumping ahead of the Sixers should add confidence towards the team securing a top five pick in some way. And of course there is the infamous Los Angeles Lakers pick. The third position in the draft has dropped out of the top three an incredibly high ten times since the 2000 NBA Draft Lottery.

The Sixers are in a position to make lottery night hectic for the rest of the league in many ways. A pick swap is in play, a potential additional pick is in play. Both of those plus the fact that the Sixers are in perhaps the most volatile lottery position within the top ten makes it a complete guessing game on how the organization walks away come June 22nd.

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A week left until lottery night, but it already feels like the Sixers are in prime position to turn the corner. With the direction of the team now relying on ping pong balls, it’s time to commend former general manager Sam Hinkie on granting Philadelphia with many failsafes in the 2017 draft if the Sixers pick were to drop drastically.