There has been chatter around the Philadelphia Eagles and WR Jordan Matthews this offseason. Does he deserve an extension? We look to the tape for answers.
A bit of breaking news coming your way: the Philadelphia Eagles WRs are pretty crummy.
2015 1st-round pick Nelson Agholor has received a beating by the media and fans alike (though we at Section 215 still think there’s hope). Trade acquisition Dorial Green-Beckham sure looked tall running those slant routes and dropping every fourth pass. Josh Huff got cut, Bryce Treggs played like an undrafted free agent, Paul Turner decided to slow-play the onset of his undoubtedly Hall of Fame career, and Jordan Matthews…
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Well, it depends on who you ask. Plenty of Matthews truthers out there will speak to his route-running, toughness, and rapport with rookie QB Carson Wentz. The naysayers will cite his questionable hands and inability to play outside.
No matter in which camp you plant your flag, Matthews will hit free agency after the upcoming season. GM Howie Roseman showed last summer that he wouldn’t shy from extending impact players before their contracts expired. And of course, every year, as the salary cap increases and bigger names demand more money, the price for a free agent goes up and up.
The Eagles have two options, at their current juncture: extend Matthews this offseason or have him play out the remainder of his rookie deal and consider negotiations following the 2018 season. To determine which route they should take, I charted each Jordan Matthews target over the 2016-2017 season. Here’s what I found.
1) A WR who can catch the football…just, you know, doesn’t
I figure I won’t get too far talking WRs in Philly without talking hands, so let’s address the elephant in the room. Jordan Matthews drops the football sometimes.
Per Sporting Charts, Matthews had 6 drops last season, tied for 8th-most in the league. That’s less than ideal. And as every Eagle fan knows, they seemed to come at the most inopportune times:
Now, both of these balls aren’t gimmes, but they are catches I expect an NFL-caliber WR to make. Both hit his hands, and he had plenty of time to adjust to and prepare for each. If I’m going to extend a player, I want him to make these grabs.
The fact of the matter is that Jordan Matthews is a body catcher. He would rather capture balls against his frame than snag them out of the air with his hands. Watch him adjust to this ball. He gets his hips turned, leaps, and even lifts his left leg so he can successfully capture this football in his gut.
A pure hands catch here would have been mighty impressive, but we’ve seen it done before. Not by any Eagle receivers, of course. Other teams’ guys.
However, we need to take a moment to put these plays and stats into context. While he ranked Top-10 in the NFL in total drops, Matthews caught a solid 62.4% of his targets over the season. For perspective, Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas caught 62.5% of his passes with 7 total drops. Super Bowl Champion WR Julian Edelman, the owner of arguably the greatest catch in Super Bowl history, reeled in 61.6% of his passes with 5 drops. Undeniable WR1s Odell Beckham Jr. and T.Y. Hilton both dropped 6 passes over the year, just like Matthews–for catch rates of 59.8% and 58.7%, respectively.
Now, there are many reasons that a WR wouldn’t catch an on-target ball, beyond just dropping it. Defensive play is the biggest reason, I’d say, which tells us something else about Matthews.
2) A WR who excels at separating
This is, undeniably, Matthews’ greatest strength. And it’s one of the most important things for a wide receiver–and a quarterback–to have.
With quick feet and explosion out of cuts, Matthews can regularly cross the face of his defender and present a target to the quarterback. On this play, he receives scheme help from the bubble, no doubt. But the shimmy, quick feet, and explosion are all quite nice. Not for nothing…so are the hands.
Beyond the clean route running and explosiveness out of cuts, few receivers use their hands at both the stem and the top of their route as effectively as Matthews does. With a long frame and solid strength, he can throw defenders off of himself to create space for the quarterback.
Catching, of course, recommended but not required.
And as the ball arrives, watch him create just a little bit of room with the slightest shove (that will never get called) to haul in this beauty.
Matthews’ solid catch rate despite his relatively high number of drops stems in good part from his ability to separate. Defenders don’t have the positioning necessary to make plays on the football when they’re covering Matthews. He runs too clean of routes and wins too often with his hands to allow them positioning when the ball arrives
Again, here’s the full comparison:
- Jordan Matthews: 6 drops, 117 targets, 62.4% catch rate, 5.1% drop rate
- Demaryius Thomas: 7 drops, 144 targets, 62.5% catch rate, 4.9% drop rate
Demaryius Thomas signed a 5-year, $70 million dollar deal in 2015. Is Jordan Matthews worth that? Not a chance. Why?
3) A WR who does basically nothing after the catch
This is definitely what surprised me the most during my film review. Matthews doesn’t have any open-field quickness about him whatsoever. He lacks any vision or instincts as a ball carrier. He just catches, turns upfield, and gets tackled. I charted 5 broken tackles for Matthews this season. For a WR catching the majority of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, that’s…what’s the word?
Bad.
The play below litters Matthews’ tape. He runs this 5-10 yard curl, identifying the hole in the zone well, presenting a big target for Carson and making the catch. Sometimes, he tries to cut behind a closing defender; sometimes he tries to speed between them; and sometimes, like on this 3rd down, he does this.
He isn’t a YAC guy, plain and simple (he averaged 3.5 YAC/reception this past season), which is also…oh, what is that word?!
Bad.
For comparison, other predominantly slot guys: Taylor Gabriel (7.9 YAC/reception), Adam Humphries (7.3 YAC/reception), Chris Hogan (6.6 YAC/reception).
If we want to go with more similar body types/skill sets: Quincy Enunwa (6.5 YAC/reception), Amari Cooper (5.6 YAC/reception) and Michael Thomas (5.2 YAC/reception)
In an offense predicated on the creation of YAC, it would seem that other options such as FA Victor Cruz (5.1 YAC/reception) or–and here it comes–incumbent WR Paul Turner (5.9 YAC/reception) would produce better numbers in Pederson’s system.
However, there’s a big point of distinction to be made here. There was a conversation at the beginning of last season, given the coaching change, regarding the possibility of moving Jordan Matthews to the outside. He has the size and the straight-line speed to make it a real possibility. He can track and adjust well to deep balls, and if he can learn to play with greater physicality on the edge, I truly believe he can be a weapon out wide, where he would not be asked as often to win after the catch.
That’s speed, tracking ability, and a victory in the leverage battle as the ball arrives. With a 6’3 frame and 33″ arms, I’d look for Matthews to make more of these plays next season.
Conclusion
So what’s the verdict?
The way I see it, extending him this very moment would be foolhardy. The Philadelphia Eagles
clearly intend on addressing the WR position with an influx of talent this offseason–both through the draft and free agency, I would expect. What level of talent they’re able to acquire and how that talent translates in Doug Pederson‘s offense will dictate the future of Jordan Matthews in midnight green.
If the Eagles are able to acquire a verifiable WR1 threat on the boundary through the draft (I’m not even going to conceal my shameless Corey Davis plug with a fake cough here), they’ll have money remaining at the position to potentially extend Matthews with good WR2 money. That’s a far less likely eventuality if they land a whale in FA (fake cough Alshon Jeffrey fake cough).
If they decided to bring in/draft a jitterbug at the slot position and permanently move Matthews to the outside, they get to play the waiting game. Matthews won’t be able to leverage only one year of good production on the boundary into a big contract anywhere but Philadelphia, so if he plays well, he’d probably receive a back-end WR1 deal here. If he struggles outside, there’s no longer a place for him in the slot, and he’ll walk.
In short, if the Eagles can’t get a real receiving threat in the building this year, Matthews will have the leverage necessary to demand WR1 money next year. The Eagles could elect to let him walk, but they’ll just end up paying it to someone else anyway. Should the Eagles draft a dynamic wideout, they’ll have capital to spend at the position, and may be able to negotiate Matthews down to a solid WR2 contract (think Eric Decker: $7.25M per year over 5 years, with $15M guaranteed). If he’s unwilling to go that low, he walks.
Next: Philadelphia Eagles Draft | Wide Receiver Positional Review
Given the uncertainty at the position, I doubt any extensions will be handed out this offseason (which is a shame, because Paul Turner’s price is going to keep getting steeper every passing year). Matthews is undoubtedly worth WR2 money, especially if he continues to develop with Carson Wentz. The question is, when the time comes, will the Philadelphia Eagles have the leverage necessary to get him to take it?