Sixers’ Money Situation If They Pay Nerlens Noel

The Sixers can handle Nerlens Noel in many ways, but what would the future look like if Philadelphia decided to pay him?

Nerlens Noel. Outside of Joel Embiid and celebratory cat-raising, the young rim protector has been in the midst of plenty of talk amongst Sixers talking heads. Noel’s talent is unquestioned for a player finishing up his rookie contract.

He’s been putting up incredible defensive metrics in his two and a half NBA seasons, yet his future is still in question. For many reasons unrelated to play, Noel could still find himself the odd man out in front court stacked with young talent.

Noel’s expected restricted free agency could have the Sixers paying out big money to a projected backup center, or watching a promising player walk with no return on asset barring a mid-season trade.

It’s a situation that has been haunting the Sixers through a season that has been a promising one. But if the situation pans out to a point where the team does decide to pay Noel, how could it impact the payroll long-term?

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Let’s break down what Noel’s numbers could turn out to be, courtesy of Keith P. Smith of 16WinsARing.com. These numbers are based off of the latest salary cap projection of $103 million. If the Sixers decide to offer Noel a maximum offer before he hits the market, it would be a five-year, $149 million deal. They could also offer a four-year max, just over $115 million. It’s unlikely the Sixers offer such a high offer, however.

If Noel did hit restricted free agency, he could very well mull some big offers. Specifically from the Brooklyn Nets, a team that has shown a willingness to hunt aggressively in restricted free agency. Noel could get a max deal, one that if the Sixers matched would cost them $111 million.

The big figures don’t mean much up front. But let’s assume the Sixers match a max offer sheet. Noel’s salary next season would be $25.7 million, increasing by roughly one million each season.

Another assumption must be made for hypothetical purposes. Let’s assume the cap increase goes up by $5 million, accounting for an expected flattening out of the cap. We will be including one top ten pick in 2017, going by tankathon.com’s current probabilities in the 2017 lottery.

One season goes by, Joel Embiid is now up for an extension. According to the new CBA, a player under the rookie contract who makes the All-NBA team (as well as other accolades), could earn a contract worth 30% of the cap with 7.5% annual raises.

The cap being at $108 million, Embiid could earn a five-year, $188 million dollar contract assuming he reaches the requirements of the 30% salary.

Going into the 2018-19 season, Embiid would be making $32.4 million, while Noel will be making $27 million. The Sixers will have an additional $27.5 million on the books. Without guessing what moves the team makes, Philadelphia is on the books for $98 million without any other signings and just 12 players total on the roster (2017 pick was given the 6th pick salary and future picks were given average rookie salary).

After the 2019-2020 season, the Sixers will have to give Ben Simmons a contract as well. He, like Embiid, could earn the 30% salary if he pans out as expected. And thanks to the new CBA, the Sixers could also give him a five-year extension. Dario Saric would also be up for extension.

So what does signing Noel do? Max money puts the Sixers in a situation where their cap room is at a place that sees them paying a majority of their money to three essential front court players.

There’s always a possibility Noel takes a hometown discount. A small one, considering Noel’s want to prove his worth. With future numbers looking clogged up by two expectedly high-performing rookies, Noel could be moved sooner than later.

Basketball-wise, keeping Noel seems like a no-brainer. Financially, it’s not as clear. The Sixers must decide in the next few weeks how they’ll handle this situation, and whether they can move forward by paying Noel, are distributing money elsewhere.

It seems that to take the next step forward, a step back must come first. Noel’s departure frees up future money in the front court. With two stars in place for the Sixers and another potential star in the upcoming draft, the Sixers can afford to push their money towards complementary role players.

Next: Amaro and Hinkie: Losing and Legacies

It’s a tough decision, but must that one be made. The talent the Sixers are losing in Noel is irreplaceable, but the need for him on this roster isn’t as drastic as it could be for other teams.