Philadelphia Flyers: Understanding their Draft tendencies

The fifty-fourth NHL draft will be held this coming weekend, and the Philadelphia Flyers have the 18^th pick with the four defensive horsemen lying in wait.

As a result, conventional wisdom dictates the Philadelphia Flyers should select a winger in the draft this Friday, but the team already selected three wingers during last year’s draft.

This raises an interesting question:  is it necessary for the Flyers to draft a winger after having selected one last year, or can they select the best player available?  An analysis of the current prospects and the wingers under contract will help determine whether or not the team should select a winger.

Two out of the three prospects are Canadian born.

• Right winger Travis Konecny stands 5’10’’ tall and weighs 175 pounds
• Left winger Samuel Dove-McFalls stands 6’2’’ and weighs 207 pounds

The third prospect is from the Czech Republic.

• David Kase stands 5’11’’ and weighs 170 pounds

These prospects are far from a lock to make the team, and it will take time to see if any actually succeed.  Travis Konecny is the prospect most fans are familiar with, but even he is not a lock to make the team at this point.  Furthermore, to further delve into the situation an analysis of the Philadelphia Flyers current wingers will be helpful.

The Wingers:

• Wayne Simmonds – RW – 27 years old due $3.975 million in 2016.  Simmonds ranked 1^st on the team with 32 goals, 5^th on the team with 28 assists, and 1^st on the team costing it 147 penalty minutes.

• Jakub Voracek – RW – 26 years old due $8.250 million in 2016.  Voracek ranked 7^th on the team with 11 goals, 2^nd on the team with 44 assists, and 7^th on the team costing it 38 penalty minutes.

• Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (PEB) – LW – 31 years old due $712,500 in 2016.  Bellemare ranked 12^th on the team with 7 goals, 18^th on the team with 7 assists, and 16^th on the team costing it 27 penalty minutes.

• Michael Raffl – LW – 27 years old due $2.350 million in 2016.  Raffl ranked 5^th on the team with 13 goals, 7^th on the team with 18 assists, and 12^th on the team with 30 penalty minutes.

My reasoning for assessing the position, age, contract, goals, assists, and penalty minutes is a basic cost-benefit analysis of the recently drafted winger prospects to the wingers currently on the roster.  The position will determine whether or not it is necessary to draft a winger, or whether the Flyers have enough.  The age will determine how soon the Philadelphia Flyers need to think about selecting a replacement in addition to the preceding factor.  The goals, assists, and penalty minutes determine how well the winger scores, helps or costs his team.

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Three out of the five wingers on contract (or 60%) are listed as right wingers.  There is $15.850 million tied up into that ring wing spot, and $3,062,000 million tied up into the left wing spot for a total of $18,912,000 million spent on the wing position.  Most of that money goes to Voracek who is not going anywhere.  The Philadelphia Flyers will no doubt retain Simmonds and Raffl as well – their age production and contract help solidify this.  That means the Flyers could look to replace Read or PEB down the road.

Read and PEB are at or over thirty years old, and out of those two PEB has lower statistics than Read (including financial concerns, goals, and assists).  But PEB is on a fourth line noted for its chemistry, and many fans enjoy PEB’s presence on the team (myself included).  The fourth line grinds hard, and PEB is a major part of that line.  PEB kills penalty minutes which is a huge asset to a fourth line whose job is to basically not make major mistakes and, if necessary, to throw their weight around.  I want PEB to remain a part of the Philadelphia Flyers because his contract is excellent and he works hard when on the ice.

Mock drafts have the Philadelphia Flyers selecting either Max Jones or Kieffer Bellows (both listed as left wing).  The left wing prospect the Flyers do have – Canadian left winger Samuel Dove-McFalls – is huge.  He is listed at 6’2’’ and weighs 207 pounds.  Max Jones is listed as 6’3’’ and Kieffer Bellows is 6’0’’.  Read is 5’10’’ and PEB is 6’0’’.  While it seems the Philadelphia Flyers are leaning towards selecting a winger to maintain or increase size at the position, their hand may not be as forced as some would have you believe.

Next: Three Reasons Shayne Gostisbehere Could Win the Calder Trophy

Hextall preaches patience with his prospects and values current players who have good contracts and work hard.  He is noted for not forcing prospects into the league, and both Read and PEB fall under what Hextall is looking for at a “position of need.”  The Philadelphia Flyers selection will be a tough decision, but Hextall has accomplished many good things with the Philadelphia Flyers so far and has done little to suggest that this decision will be any different.