Philadelphia Phillies Weekend Preview: Chicago Cubs
By Mike Lacy
A preview of this weekend’s series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs
The “easy” part of the Philadelphia Phillies’ schedule is over. Now they’ll have to travel to Chicago and take on the powerful Cubs.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 31-14 (1st in NL Central)
Manager: Joe Maddon
What’s the deal with the Cubs?
The Cubs lead the majors with 31 wins and look to be in position for their second straight playoff berth. They have proven dangerous at the plate (2nd in runs scored) and on defense (best team ERA in the NL). Their offensive production is especially impressive considering the struggles of outfielder Jason Heyward (more on him later) and the loss of Kyle Schwarber to a season-ending knee injury.
For the benefit of any masochistic Cubs fans reading this, here’s a video of the play where Schwarber was injured:
The last time they met
The Phillies actually did well against the Cubs in 2015. They swept a three-game series at Wrigley and split the four-game rematch in Philly.
I know many of us have blocked out most memories of the 2015 season, but Philadelphia Phillies fans will probably remember at least one of those Wrigley Field games:
Reason to hate the Cubs
The Cubs’ success has caused their fans to walk around with a little bit of swagger, a development which I find to be completely unacceptable. We expect swagger from Yankees fans; from Cubs fans, we want humility and a defeatist attitude! It feels like this team needs a lengthy losing streak to get everyone’s heads straight.
They also recently released Shane Victorino, depriving Philadelphia Phillies fans of a chance to see an old favorite again.
Cubs player who isn’t entirely horrible
Ben Zobrist has long been the darling of the sabermetric community. His ability to play many positions and his excellent on-base skills always allowed him to record an impressive WAR total.
In his first season in the National League, Zobrist is showing exactly why he was held in such high esteem. His .453 on-base percentage is the best in baseball.
Cubs player who is horrible
Jason Heyward was a highly sought after free agent this offseason. Some Phillies fans thought that his combination of youth, defensive ability, and power potential would make him worth pursuing. It’s still early, but it seems the Phillies may have been wise not to go after him.
His defense has been as advertised, but Heyward’s offensive game has not been worth the money. He’s batting .217 (albeit with a solid walk rate) and only one home run. Defense is nice, but the Cubs would probably prefer if his offensive numbers weren’t comparable to Peter Bourjos‘. Especially considering Heyward costs about $20 million more.
Brief Phillies update
The Philadelphia Phillies pulled out the finale of the Tigers series thanks to home runs by Odubel Herrera and Peter Bourjos. It was one of the rare times when the offense picked up the pitching. Despite that victory, the Philadelphia Phillies have now lost their last two series.
Starting pitching preview
When he was a free agent over a year ago, some people characterized Lester as an ace. While he probably isn’t really at that level, he’s been a solid #2 in the Cubs’ rotation. He’s also dominated the Phillies throughout his career, going 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in six career starts.
Morgan will be looking to make his second straight quality start. His last time out, he limited the Braves to two runs in six innings.
Kyle Hendricks vs. Jerad Eickhoff
Hendricks has established himself as a solid young starter. Since being called up midway through the 2014 season, Hendricks has a career ERA of 3.46. He won his only start against the Phillies in 2015, giving up three runs in 6.2 innings.
Eickhoff had one of his best starts of the season on Sunday against the Braves. He shut them out for seven innings. We’ll see if he can continue to succeed against a more formidable lineup.
John Lackey vs. Vincent Velasquez
A 14-year veteran, Lackey is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, recording a 2.77 ERA for the Cardinals in 2015. He signed with the Cubs as a free agent and has provided a solid, veteran presence in their lineup. In seven career starts against the Phillies, he has a 3.13 ERA.
Velasquez has had difficulty pitching deep into games lately. He hasn’t made it past the sixth innings in any of his May starts and had to be pulled after four innings due to a high pitch count his last time out.
Reason for Optimism
Considering they’ve outplayed expectations so far, who’s to say the Philadelphia Phillies can’t take down the team with the best record in baseball?
By the way, the Cubs have the best record in the National League. The last time the Cubs finished with the league’s best record in baseball was 2008. Anyone remember who won the World Series that year?
Reason for Pessimism
The Philadelphia Phillies’ record has been built on a 14-4 record in one-run games. They haven’t done as well in games decided by five or more runs, with a 1-7 record. On the other hand, the Cubs are 17-2 in blowouts. The Phillies need their pitchers to keep things close. If any of the starters get knocked out early, they will likely lose.
Next: Top Five Phillies Prospects to Keep an Eye on
Prediction
The Philadelphia Phillies will finally beat Lester in the opener. Unfortunately, they won’t sustain that success over the weekend and they’ll lose the final two games.