DraftKings Week 11 Picks

Each week there are millions who play Daily Fantasy Sports, and since we at Section215 care about our readers, we have decided to provide you with some detailed insight on the best plays on DraftKings.

Not everyone plays on DraftKings, and there is definitely pricing differences on each site. If you have any questions on whether or not I would recommend the players listed below on a site other than DraftKings, feel free to reach me @JFerrie23 on Twitter.

Quarterback

Cam Newton ($6,900) vs. Washington (Car -7.5; O/U 44.5)- Cam Newton has made a serious campaign for NFL MVP this season, and one can be made that he is the Daily Fantasy Sports MVP, too. Newton’s price has yet to climb over $7,600 despite putting up six 20-plus point performances, including two 30-plus performances. This week, Newton gets Washington at home. Washington has been decent against the pass this season, limiting opposing quarterbacks to 235 passing yards per game. The passing yards aren’t necessarily a reason to shy away from Newton, though. Washington is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game this season. That is the third-highest total in the NFL. As we all know, Newton is a dual-threat at QB and could break a huge run at any time. In his last three games, Newton has 28 rushing attempts, which makes this an interesting opportunity for Newton.

Derek Carr ($6,300) @ Detroit (Det -1; O/U 50)- At this point, I think Carr makes this column every week. He has made significant strides in his second year, and that has resulted in success for Oakland. Similar to Newton, Carr has six 20-plus point weeks on DraftKings. Crazy enough, but his salary hasn’t been greater than $6,000 since week one! In his last three games, Carr has thrown for 300-plus yards in each contest to go along with two 30-plus point performances. The Detroit defense has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Matthew Stafford ($5,400) vs. Oakland (Det -1; O/U 50)- So I am assuming that you read the Carr part prior to this, but here we go. As stated with Carr, the total alone draws interest. Then, diving into the salaries, you can see that Stafford is toward the bottom of all quarterbacks. There is no doubt that Stafford has been up-and-down this season, but in games that Stafford has played at home, he has averaged 1.73 points above expectation, according to FantasyLabs. This season, the Raiders have allowed 293 passing yards per game. The price is low, the total is high and Stafford is a home favorite. I like this spot for Stafford and the Lions.

For your consideration: Tom Brady ($8,500) vs. Buffalo; Carson Palmer ($6,700) @ Cincinnati

Running-Backs

Charcandrick West ($4,500) @ San Diego (KC -3; O/U 45)- Honestly, I have no idea why West has such a low price. In his last three games, West has 23.9, 22.2 and 31.1 DraftKings points, respectively. In each of those three games, West has at least 20 rushing attempts and five passing targets. The volume is very similar to what Jamaal Charles was accustom to prior to injury. The San Diego Chargers rank 31st in DVOA against running-backs, according to FootballOutsiders. Along with the low price and poor DVOA, the Chargers have allowed 122.9 rushing yards per game on a crazy 4.9 yard per carry. The ownership rate is going to be very high because of the recent outburst, but the workout is similar to Charles at just $4,500–is there something to hate?

Darren McFadden ($5,000) @ Miami (Dal -1; O/U 46)- The Dallas Cowboys will finally put a stop to their quarterback search with the return of Tony Romo. The return of Romo should help all facets of the game. Lets face it, opposing defenses came into games knowing the only threat was Darren McFadden. The return of Romo should draw some respect from the defense and pull the away from the line. Even with an ugly week against Tampa Bay, McFadden still had 20 total touches. That was his first sub-15 point game since earning the starting role. The Dolphins defense is allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game this season. Along with that, the Dolphins defense has allowed eight rushing touchdowns. For the year, the Miami defense has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing running-backs. At $5,000 McFadden is a great play again this week.

Todd Gurley ($7,600) @ Baltimore (Bal -2.5; O/U 41.5)- The Todd Gurley show heads to the east coast this weekend. The Rams should feature Gurley quite a bit in a matchup with Case Keenum at quarterback. Somehow, Keenum may be an upgrade from Nick Foles, who has been a train wreck in St. Louis. The quarterback situation should push even more work to Gurley, who scored four touchdowns in the past three weeks. While Gurley had just 12 carries last week, the game flow didn’t help at all. On the positive end, Gurley has been a solid checkdown, hauling in three receptions for at least 20 yards in each of his past three contests. The Ravens rank 18th in DVOA and are allowing just under 100 rushing yards per game, so the matchup doesn’t jump off the page. But, I will bet that Gurley touches the ball at least 25 times in a low scoring game. I know the total isn’t attractive, but the volume should be there. If that prediction is true, the talent of Gurley is something I am willing to bet on.

Jonathan Stewart ($4,400) vs. Washington (Car -7.5; O/U 44.5)- As stated above with Newton–Washington is allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game this season. The total allowed should jump off the page, as it is the third-worst rushing defense in football. The game log for Stewart shows that he is getting the volume needed to pay off this low price tag. In each of his last five games, Stewart has at least 20 rushing attempts. While he isn’t involved in the passing game, the rushing volume gives him a great shot at paying off his price tag. If you’re going to fade Newton this week, consider playing Stewart for just $4,400.

For your consideration: Lamar Miller ($6,200) vs. Dallas; LaGarette Blount ($5,000) vs. Buffalo

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones ($9,300) @ Indianapolis (Atl -5; O/U 47.5)- The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win coming off their bye week and it may be time to let Julio Jones go to work. Matt Ryan has targeted Julio Jones at least 10 times in all but one game this season. That provides Jones will constant opportunities. Vontae Davis may be shadowing Jones this weekend, which adds an element of difficulty for the all-pro receiver, but the talent of Jones is off the charts. On FantasyLabs, Jones has the highest projected ceiling at 31.5 DraftKings points. The price is high, but the volume for Jones is great. I have no issues paying up for Jones in a must-win game for the Falcons.

Michael Crabtree ($6,000) @ Detroit (Det -1; O/U 50)- In the quarterbacks section, I highlighted Derek Carr, who has a great matchup this weekend. Michael Crabtree finds himself in that same situation. The Lions rank 28th in DVOA against WR2 this season. While some would argue that Crabtree is their number one, ProFootballFocus has Crabtree lined up as the two. This season, Crabtree has received a ton of work. The fewest targets that Crabtree has seen in a week is five, and that was against the Vikings last week. Seven times this season, Crabtree has been targeted at least eight times. Crabtree also comes in $800 cheaper than Amari Cooper, who also has a decent matchup. The lower price, high total and poor DVOA against WR2 leads me to believe that Crabtree has a big week in Detroit.

Mike Evans ($7,300) @ Philadelphia (Phi -5.5; O/U 45)- The Eagles gave up yet another big week to a number one receiver last week. Jarvis Landry found the end zone and earned another double-digit fantasy day. This week, the Eagles meet up with Mike Evans, who has been a target machine. In his past four contests, Evans has been targeted 53 times. In three of those four games, Evans has gone for at least 125 yards receiving. The Eagles rank 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1. The poor DVOA correlates with the Eagles allowing 3.7 fantasy points above expectation to wide receivers, per FantasyLabs. The targets and matchup make Evans safe in all formats.

Danny Amendola ($4,000) vs. Buffalo (NE -7.5; O/U 48)- The unfortunate injury to Julian Edelman allows for a cost saving opportunity. There is no doubt that Amendola will be highly owned this weekend, but someone needs to assume the role for the Patriots. Amendola will see time in the slot and should see a higher volume of targets than he has in the past. Last week, Amendola was targeted 11 times, hauling in 10 for 79 yards. That does equate to 17.9 DraftKings points, but the volume is the main reason. It doesn’t appear that Amendola has big-play ability, but the targets should be there. This pick is more of an opportunity cost than anything.

Jon Brown ($5,200) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (Ari -4.5; O/U 48.5)- This is an interesting spot for Brown and the Cardinals. First off, please check injury reports before playing Brown as he has been troubled by a hamstring injury. While Brown didn’t do anything against the Seahawks, he did play–so that is a plus. Prior to that, Brown had no fewer than nine DraftKings points in a game this season. On ProFootballFocus, Brown is set to matchup against Dre Kirkpatrick, and the two have significantly different ratings. This game has a high total, and I am really using PFF ratings to look for a lineup differentiator. If you’re looking to do that, I like Brown if he plays.

For your consideration: Jarvis Landry ($6,700) vs Dallas; James Jones ($5,000) and Davante Adams ($4,600) @ Minnesota

Tight-End

Greg Olsen ($6,200) vs. Washington (Car -7.5; O/U 44.5)- This is another spot where I like Olsen. For the season, Olsen is getting over eight targets per game–which is elite in terms of opportunity. Washington has done well against opposing tight-ends this season despite their poor linebacker grades. However, the Panthers use Olsen quite a bit. In each of his past three games, Olsen has at least 16 DraftKings points. In two of those games, Olsen has reached the end zone. Olsen is an option if you want to pay up at tight-end.

Zach Ertz ($3,100) vs. Tampa Bay (Phi -5.5; O/U 45)- The Philadelphia Eagles will see a change at quarterback this week with Mark Sanchez playing for Sam Bradford. That change may not matter in terms of fantasy production, but Sanchez seems to check down more than Bradford, which seems impossible. The Bucs rank 18th in DVOA to opposing tight-ends, which makes it a decent matchup for Ertz. In each of the past five games, Ertz has at least six targets. The one thing that seems to be the issue with Ertz is touchdowns. But, if you watch the Eagles, you know that Ertz has had several touchdowns get called back. That’s just unlucky. If I pay down at tight-end this weekend, I am going with Ertz.

Eric Ebron ($3,500) vs. Oakland (Det -1; O/U 50)- In highlighting Matt Stafford above, I made sure to include the high total in the contest. That is an attractive thing for sure. Ebron comes into this contest against the team surrendering the most fantasy points to tight-ends. While Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate appear to be in a much better spot, Ebron has been targeted at least five times in each of the past three games which brings some intrigue. The total and Raiders defense against tight-ends made this matchup stand out to me. If you’re looking to find a very low owned pairing for the Lions, Ebron is a good option.

Travis Kelce ($4,700) @ San Diego (KC -3; O/U 44.5)- In the past month, Kelce has dropped $600 in price despite putting up double-digit fantasy points in three of four contests. The Chargers DVOA against tight-ends ranks 28th in football. In each game this year, Kelce has been targeted at least five times. While I like Charcandrick West a lot, Kelce is in a great spot and will probably have a lower ownership than normal.

For your consideration: Rob Gronkowski ($7,700) vs. Buffalo; Jason Witten ($5,100) @ Miami

Defense/Special Teams

Seattle Seahawks ($4,000) vs. San Francisco (Sea -13; O/U 40)- Blaine Gabbert. I got burned by this with the Falcons, but it isn’t happening this week. The Seahawks lost a heartbreaker last weekend and need this game. Gabbert isn’t one of the best 30 quarterbakcs in football and he has no skill players with plus-matchups. There is no doubt Seattle has taken a step back this year, but I am betting against Gabbert on the road as an underdog with a  low total. If you want to pay up, go to Seattle.

Carolina Panthers ($3,400) vs. Washington (Car -7.5; O/U 44.5)- I love this matchup. I created my set of rules against Kirk Cousins last week. Bet against Cousins unless he is going against a Rob Ryan defense. Since Rob Ryan isn’t in this matchup, I will bet against Cousins. The Panthers defense outmatches every skill player on the Washington, and that is enough for me to bet against Washington. Cousins can throw multiple interceptions in the snap of a finger, and I would bet he does it against this secondary.

Chicago Bears ($2,000) vs. Denver (Den -1; O/U 40.5)- I think the world of the Denver skill players, particularly Thomas and Sanders, but can they thrive with Brock Osweiler at quarterback? I’m not so sure. The total in this game is very low, and I believe that Chicago is in a good spot here. The Bears run defense has allowed just They are the riskiest option on the board, but they provide the opportunity to spend at other positions. In a tournament, I think you need to own some shares of the Bears defense.

For your consideration: Philadelphia ($3,100) vs. Tampa Bay; St Louis ($3,600) @ Baltimore

Please remember to check the injury reports prior to locking your lineups. If one of the suggestions above is ruled out, I will provide another option on Twitter. If you’re not on Twitter, leave a comment and I will respond in the section below! Best of luck!