In the last few years, signing international players has become second nature for MLB teams. The Phillies first international splash came with Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, who did not make a start for the team in 2014. The Phillies missed out on Yasmany Tomas when it appeared as if they were the front-runner for the now-Diamondbacks third baseman. Recent events have allowed 19-year-old prospect Yoan Moncada to hit the MLB free agent market and a bidding war is about to begin. The question for the Phillies is whether or not he is worth the sign, with knowledge of the risks it could pose both on the field and in their wallet.
Current Issues
The Phillies have started to rebuild their farm system and now have a stockpile of middle-to-back end starting pitchers to go along with infielders J.P. Crawford and Maikel Franco. In time, the Phillies will look to trade Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon and Cliff Lee (if healthy). The return for Hamels will yield the highest return because of recent performance and a club friendly contract for a guy who has four top-10 Cy Young finishes. There are rumors that the Phillies are seeking top prospects for Cole Hamels, which would bolster their system.
If the Phillies were to deal either Papelbon or Lee, the return would not be as great due to financial issues. As previously reported, Jonathan Papelbon will only waive his no trade clause if his option year is guaranteed. If that is the case, the Phillies will be on the hook for most of, if not all of that money.
Similar to Papelbon, a trade of Cliff Lee will require absorbing a financial hit. The Phillies owe Lee $25 million this season, plus his contract includes a buyout option prior to next season, which is $12.5 million. If Lee cannot stay healthy, Philadelphia will pay Lee $37.5 million for one year of work. One would imagine that Lee would want his option year guaranteed if he agrees to a trade, which would bring his contract to $52.5 million over two years. That is a lot of money for an aging pitcher coming off an elbow injury.
In the best case scenario, the Phillies get mid-level prospects for Papelbon and Lee. If the Phillies agree to pay the majority of Lee’s deal in a trade and he is throwing well, the demand could increase, but not by much.
This brings the Phillies to a scenario where they have two top infield prospects, both on the same side and 5-6 middle-to-back end starting pitchers in their system. The Phillies do have the tenth overall pick in next years draft, which means they will acquire another prospect. This brings up the question of whether or not it is the right time for Philadelphia to go after coveted Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada.
Evaluating Moncada’s Tools
As a player, Moncada has been praised for his build and tools as a 19-year old. Moncada is a 6 foot, 210 pound middle-infielder who hits from both sides of the plate. According to scouts, Moncada projects better at second or third base, but has the skill set to move to center field, too. Right now, Moncada is playing shortstop, but that is not his best fit. Moncada projects to be a five tool player. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, all five of Moncada’s tools rate higher than 50 (20-80 scouting scale, where 80 is elite and 20 is poor).
Here are Moncada’s tools, according to Mayo:
Hit: 60
Power: 60
Speed: 70
Arm: 60
Field: 50
It is important to remember that Moncada is just 19-years old and some of his tools will continue to grow as he gets older and more repetitions.
When evaluating prospects, teams should always get more than one opinion. With that said, I will review Fangraphs Lead Prospect Analyst Kiley McDaniel’s ranking of Moncada. In a recent article, McDaniel stated that he would rank Moncada between 5-12 in terms of best MLB prospects. He compared Moncada’s skill set to that of Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, both who rank in the top-10 prospects. In terms of a MLB player comprable, McDaniel has used Yasiel Puig. Funny enough, Moncada actually beat Puig in a foot race at an international showcase.
The Phillies benefit from being in a larger market and, outside of Yoenis Cespedes, international free-agents have landed in major markets because those are the teams that can afford these players with their risk. The risk for the Phillies is both financial and game-related. As physically gifted as Moncada is, and I do believe his skills will translate to MLB, he is no sure thing. There is a large financial investment that will go into signing the 19-year old prospect.
Financial Risk & International Market
In his recent article, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reported that the Phillies would take a financial risk signing Moncada. Of course there is the regular risk assocaited with signing a player but, as Zolecki points out, the international market differs from the standard MLB free agent market.
Since Moncada is under 23 years of age and has not played at least five years in a Cuban professional league, the club who signs him is subject to a 100% penalty if they exceed their international bonus allotment. As Zolecki points out, Philadelphia is currently 100,000 under their $3,221,800 cap for this year, which runs from July 2, 2014 through June 15, 2015. At this point, if the Phillies were to sign Moncada, they would be doubling down. Right now, it is rumored that Moncada could sign for $40 million dollars and since the Phillies would exceed their international bonus allotment, they would wind up paying close to double that for the 19-year old.
It doesn’t stop there, either. If the Phillies do sign Moncada and exceed their international budget by more than 15%, they won’t be able to spend over $300,00 in the international market over the next two years. So if another Moncada-type prospect came around, the Phillies would not be able to make a run at him. This would mean the Phillies couldn’t test the international market until July 2, 2017.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has stated that the Phillies are aware of Moncada and his talents saying “He’s a very good prospect. He has a chance to be a very good player. He checks off a lot of boxes, but we’re not the only team that would be interested in Yoan Moncada. But that’s all I can say.”
While Amaro addressed some of the interest the Phillies have in Moncada, the GM continued by saying “You can’t miss on a guy that may be a significant risk.” In a nutshell, this addresses the financial risk the Phillies would take on by signing Moncada, as well as the risk of missing out on other international prospects.
The interesting twist within the international free agent market will be the push for an international draft. In the next collective bargaining agreement (CBA), I expect there to be a significant amount of talk surrounding the international draft. Smaller market teams get priced out of the international market at times, which causes concern for owners who feel as if they do not have a fair shot. An international draft could change everything for the Phillies if they take this risk.
Should the Phillies risk it?
Personally, I have found myself on both sides of the fence here. Understanding the financial repercussions is completely different from wanting the prospect in Philadelphia. First, I will address the financial problem that I see, then I’ll discuss the farm flexibility with Moncada.
The Phillies are in a position where spending is not ideal for them. They have all but lost out on Ryan Howard’s contract, which they are going to eat whether they keep him on the roster or not. Then, the Papelbon and Lee issues that I have previously addressed. If we assume that Lee stays in Philadelphia and they buy him out because he does not meet the criteria to guarantee his deal, that is $37.5 million. Add in that Papelbon’s option will likely become guaranteed if he stays, accounting for another $13 million on the books. That would be $26 million over the next two years. If Philadelphia can trade Papelbon, I would assume the option becomes guaranteed and half of that option year is on Philadelphia, if not more.
Here it is an a broken down version:
Howard: $25 million in 2015, $25 million 2016, $23 million 2017 (Could buyout before season for $10 million)
Lee: $25 million in 2015, $27.5 million in 2016 (Could buy out at $12.5 million if Lee pitches fewer than 200 IP in 2015 or is on DL with left arm injury)
Papelbon: $13 million in 2015, $13 million in 2016 (option year; becomes guaranteed if Papelbon finished 100 games between 2014-2015)
These are three high risk financial situations that Philadelphia is already involved in. If they trade both Papelbon and Lee, they will still be accountable for a large portion of that money on top of paying Howard a minimum of $60 million since he is no longer marketable.
If I completely ignore their financial situation, I love the idea of Moncada in the Phillies system, but who wouldn’t? Moncada would allow the Phillies to be flexible in terms of positioning their prospects. At this point, Moncada can play shortstop, third and second base. He is also athletic enough to play center field. A top prospect with that type of versatility is amazing.
If Moncada became a Phillie, he would spent two or so years in the minor leagues prior to making his MLB debut. This puts him on the same track as J.P Crawford, who he would likely come through the system with. While the Phillies are grooming Maikel Franco to play third base at the major league level, they would be doing the same for their future middle infield consisting of two top-10 prospects. If Franco does not work out and needs to move to first base, the Phillies could move Moncada to third base. The other option is that Moncada does not work out as an infielder, which I doubt, but he could play center field which is another premium position.
Prior to writing this, I was imagine a lineup with Crawford, Moncada and Franco in the middle of the lineup. If they all meet their potential, that would be a scary middle of the lineup. The infield is not the only factor either. The Phillies have acquired several pitching prospects this winter via trade. Tom Windle, Zach Eflin and Ben Lively were all acquired via trade and now rank in Baseball America’s top-10 Phillies prospects. Along with Aaron Nola, who may reach the majors this season, that plays out well for the Phillies. If Philadelphia handles that situation correctly, Moncada or not, they could have a nice core in two or three years.
Overall, I think it may be worth the risk if the Phillies are seriously looking to content in just over three years. Moncada could change the dynamic in Philadelphia, but it is hard to ignore the money the Phillies owe to their aging players. This would be the biggest risk Ruben Amaro Jr. has ever taken. A move of this magnitude would make or break the beleaguered general manager. If it succeeds, he looks like a genius and earns praise. If the move fails, he will in all likelihood lose his job. I think the Phillies front office needs to sit down and take a hard look at Moncada because he may be the prospect the Phillies have been waiting for, but it won’t be cheap.