The Philadelphia Phillies are unlikely to trade Cole Hamels before the start of the season
By Mike Lacy
The Philadelphia Phillies have not provided their fans with much excitement this offseason. Sure, they’ve made a few moves: They signed some minor free agents, they made a few trades; Heck, they even traded away the franchise’s all-time hits leader.
But they haven’t made the one potentially franchise-altering move that many people expected them to make: Trade Cole Hamels. And as Spring Training draws closer, it’s looking less and less likely that a trade is going to happen before the season begins.
I’m basing this on the following factors:
The Phillies do not NEED to trade Hamels
There is a belief that to jump-start their rebuilding process, the Phillies need to trade their only player who possesses a high trade value. But it seems that not everyone in the Phillies’ organization believes that such a move is necessary.
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
If Hamels will still be a quality pitcher when the Phillies are (hopefully) good again in a few years, then it would be counter-productive to trade him. Trading away an ace pitcher would just mean they’d have to find a replacement somewhere down the line.
Money doesn’t appear to be an issue either. Yes, Hamels is highly paid, but considering the Phillies’ payroll has already been drastically reduced, they certainly can afford him. And it isn’t like there are many productive ways to spend any money they might save.
The team also seems opposed to “tanking” the season. While they have publicly admitted they don’t expect to contend this season, they’re also going to attempt to put a major league quality product on the field. Which is good, because unlike the NBA or NHL, tanking the season to get one of the top picks in the draft isn’t a sound strategy.
So yes, a trade could potentially give them a few good building blocks for the future. But it’s hard to consider it an absolute must. If they can’t get what they want for Hamels, then they’ll be fine with running one of the best pitchers in baseball out there every five days.
The Phillies are asking a lot for Hamels
As mentioned, they wouldn’t be trading Hamels out of necessity, but rather out of desire to improve the team’s chance in the future. Therefore, it only makes sense to trade Hamels for a group of prospects who you think will actually help the team some day.
The Phillies are reportedly being “unrealistic” in their trade demands, but that’s the approach they should be taking. They don’t need to trade him, so there’s absolutely no reason for the Phillies to compromise.
Prospects are valued extremely highly
Max Scherzer. Image Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Free agent Max Scherzer has agreed to a seven-year/$210 million contract with the Nationals. While that’s a lot of money, it seems in line with the going rate for an ace pitcher. Hamels – who most pundits consider to be equal if not better than Scherzer – will cost only $94,000 over the next four years. (There is an extra option year after that.)
Shouldn’t teams be jumping for the chance to get Hamels at what is now a below-market rate, especially when there are fewer years left on his deal? Why aren’t teams beating down Ruben Amaro’s door?
The reason appears to be because teams are overvaluing their prospects. They’d rather pay a free agent a lot more money for more years rather than part with their best minor league talent.
Basically, based on the Scherzer signing, baseball’s open market has decided that a good haul of prospects is worth over $100 million.
When Ruben Amaro lamented that teams are overvaluing their prospects, he wasn’t just bitter about not being able to strike a deal. Teams really do seem to be prizing their minor league talent to an extreme degree.
Good starting pitching is readily available
Ace-level pitchers like Hamels are desired commodities throughout baseball. Teams seem to always be in search of good starting pitching.
It seems slightly counter-intuitive since good starting pitchers are almost always available. They’re kind of like luxury cars: They’re going to cost a lot, so most buyers can’t afford them. But to those who are willing and able to pay the price, they’re easy enough to get.
Don’t like the price for Cole Hamels? Why not check out Jordan Zimmermann instead? Image Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports
This offseason, the free agent market contained Scherzer, James Shields, and Jon Lester, who were all considered top-of-the-rotation starters. Barring them signing an in-season extension, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann are just a couple of big-name pitchers due to become free agents after the 2015 season.
In addition, it seems like there are always good pitchers available on the trade market. Just look at some of the pitchers who have been traded in the past five years:
Lester, Price, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke
You could cobble together a pretty nifty major league rotation out of those guys.
As a result, if teams don’t like what Amaro is demanding for Hamels (and it seems that they don’t), they don’t have to give in, since there are other options out there.
It’s still possible that some team out there becomes desperate enough that they agree to Amaro’s asking price. And I suppose it’s also possible that Amaro will feel pressure to make a big move and will lessen his demands. But I think the most likely outcome is that when the season begins on April 6th, Hamels will still be in a Phillies uniform.