Jon Lester Signs, Cole Hamels on the Block

Sep 28, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels (35) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Day two of the Winter Meetings revolved around Jon Lester and his future ball club. Lester, who will be entering his age 30 season- signed a six year, $155 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. The market for Cole Hamels should take shape now that Lester has signed. While clubs could sign Max Scherzer or James Shields, neither are Hamels and both have different asking prices. Scherzer is seeking a deal in the $200 million range. Only one pitcher has inked a deal north of $200 million– Clayton Kershaw. While James Shields has become a household name, he is not in Hamels class. Ruben Amaro Jr. will be looking to deal his 30-year-old ace, but has certain criteria in mind.

First, Cole Hamels deal appears to be a bargain for the Phillies. If Hamels were to hit the open market today, I believe he would received at least six years, $170 million. Am I a little high on Hamels? Honestly, no. Over the last three seasons, Jon Lester has been 8.3 WAR. During that same period, Hamels is 15.8 WAR. Lester had the worst year of his career during that three-year span, but if I included his best year in that span, 2014, he would still have a lower WAR than Hamels. While Wins Above Replacement is not the end all be all, Hamels has a better K/BB rate, ERA+, ERA and FIP. While Lester has bounced back to form in the last year and a half, Hamels is a safer bet moving forward. Hamels and Lester are quite similar in a lot of respects, but I would bet on Hamels fulfilling contractual value over Lester.

Now that Lester has signed, who will be seeking Hamels services? It is fair to assume that majority of the teams involved in the Jon Lester sweepstakes will look into a deal for Hamels. Few teams have the prospects to acquire Hamels, which will trim the list of potential suitors. Ultimately, the Red Sox and Dodgers have the prospects to complete a deal for Cole Hamels. The deal will involve at least two highly ranked prospects. The catch on a trade involving Hamels will be the money owed to the 30-year-old left-hander. Hamels will receive at least $96 million over the next four seasons. That is a good bit of money, but in all likelihood, Hamels will out-perform his contract.

If Hamels is dealt to the Red Sox or Dodgers, who should they expect in return? Now, we can get into specifics about player return. The Red Sox and Dodgers both appear to be win-now teams. The Dodgers have Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu in their opening day rotation. If they were to add Hamels, they would easily be the favorite to represent the National League in the World Series. If the Dodgers want to add Hamels to their rotation, expect OF Joc Pederson and LHP Julio Urias to be involved. I am not sure the Dodgers would be willing to part ways with two of the best prospects in baseball, but Amaro should inquire about Pederson and Urias in a deal for Hamels.

If the Red Sox want to acquire the services of Cole Hamels, they are in the same situation as the Dodgers. The Red Sox have several top prospects or valuable trade chips at the Major League level. For starters, the Phillies should NOT acquire Yoenis Cespedes. While the Phillies could flip Cespedes at the trade deadline, there is no guarantee he will stay healthy in a walk year. If he does not stay healthy, teams will not want Cespedes at the deadline. The names that should be surrounding a deal for Hamels are Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Henry Owens and Brian Johnson. I am not suggesting that all of these names will be in a deal for Hamels, but I believe they are good starting points and I like their upside. Personally, I am highest on Henry Owens. A deal for Hamels should involve multiple prospects with high ceilings to provide future value to Philadelphia.

Moving into day three of the Winter Meetings, I expect the market for Hamels to increase. Hamels is a valuable arm now and in the future. The Dodgers and Red Sox appear to be in win-now scenarios. The Red Sox need a front of the rotation arm since they missed out on Jon Lester. The Dodgers will have an all-time great rotation (on paper) if they acquire Hamels. I do not believe a deal for Hamels will occur at the Winter Meetings, but the Phillies can set the market for Hamels this week. If the Phillies deal Hamels, expect Amaro to target highly ranked prospects. Cole Hamels is a valuable asset and the Phillies are going to seek maximum value for their ace.