2014-2015 Flyers Season Preview: Dawn of the Hextall Era

Sep 30, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers center Claude Giroux (28) yells to a teammate during the third period at Wells Fargo Center. The Flyers defeated the Rangers, 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Flyers open their 2014-2015 campaign tonight as they visit the Boston Bruins. The Orange and Black are coming off a first-round exit from the 2014 playoffs and an offseason of significant change within the franchise. Ron Hextall was handed the reins as the team’s general manager and brought with him a different approach to the offseason from what fans had seen under Paul Holmgren. Due to salary cap restrictions and an insistence on keeping the organization’s top prospects, there was not the normal ‘splash’ trade or acquisition that the Flyers had become somewhat notorious for.

Still, the 2014 offseason would have to be categorized as one of change. Longtime fan-favorite Scott Hartnell was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for veteran forward R.J. Umberger. The team’s top defenseman, Kimmo Timonen, is a significant question mark after he was diagnosed with blood clots over the offseason. Though the veteran hasn’t officially ruled out a return to the lineup at some point this season, one has to imagine the team is going forward under the assumption that they ill be without Timonen.

As far as additions to the lineup, the Flyers brought along some forward/center depth in the form of Pierre Edouard-Bellemare. The French import managed to stand out fairly well during the team’s preseason and demonstrated chemistry with fellow fourth-line mates Jason Akeson and Zac Rinaldo. Former Rangers and Predators blue liner Michael Del Zotto was signed following Timonen’s diagnosis. Del Zotto, 24, is a few years removed from being one of the most promising young defenseman in the NHL during his tenure in New York. Now he is looking to resurrect his career in Philadelphia, where his mobility and offensive game will most likely be an addition to a defensive corps that lacks such abilities, for the most part.

The theme of the offseason, contrary to years past, was much more about stability and streamlining. For the first time since probably the early 1970s, the Flyers will not be carrying a traditional ‘enforcer’ on their active roster. The lineup will not lack in the toughness department, but the ommision of Jay Rosehill from the opening day chart signifies a philosophical shift that is a long time coming. Instead, the focus was to improve the talent already within the organization and bank on the chemistry built over the better part of three seasons will allow the team to steadily progress together. The franchise appears comfortable moving forward with a ‘core’ of: Claude Giroux, Jake Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds, Steve Mason, and Matt Read while it waits for improvements on the defensive end from the lower levels. Especially for players like Schenn and Couturier, whose ‘breakout’ seasons seem long-awaited at this point, the Flyers will be depending a great deal on expectations for young talent. That being said, Giroux and potentially Voracek are world-class talents and most of the team is either entering or already in the early stages of their prime.

From a big picture standpoint, the Flyers were one of the least active teams within their division as far as offseason transactions. The Capitals spent a boatload of money on free agents and brought in coach Barry Trotz after Adam Oates was fired during the offseason. Pittsburgh lost James Neal, but arguably upgraded with the addition of Christian Ehrhoff to their back-end. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are back, and most likely still the two best players in the game. The defending Eastern Conference champion Rangers are somewhat of a question mark. They return the better part of last year’s Stanley Cup runner-up roster. Henrik Lundqvist is still the best goalie in the world. They also will be without the services of center Derek Stepan for the first part of the season and are still waiting on major contributions from Rick Nash. The Islanders made major additions in recent weeks and, with a healthy John Tavares leading the pack, could make a return to the playoffs after missing last year’s postseason. Jaroslav Halak should be an upgrade between the pipes and a young roster with legitimate talent should help the Islanders stay in the hunt for playoff positioning throughout the season. The Blue Jackets appear to be a team on the rise. Though they will start the season with injury issues of their own, Columbus gave the Penguins a serious scare in last year’s postseason and are strong in all phases of the game. This seems like a team that could be a serious contender out of the East for some time. The Devils have handed the goaltending duties over to Cory Schneider for good this year, ending the Martin Brodeur era. With a strong crop of veteran talent and a continued reputation as a strong defensive team overall, the Devils will most likely contend for a return to the postseason as well. The Hurricanes might win the first overall pick.

I was lukewarm on last year’s Flyers team. I was genuinely surprised that they made the playoffs. Most of it was due to the fact that the proficiency of the offense and power play allowed the team to make up late deficits where other teams might not have the firepower. Claude Giroux had a tremendous second half of the season and, at times, single-handedly willed the team into the postseason. Were it not for a concussion to Steve Mason in one of the last games of the regular season, it’s possible that last year’s playoffs would have gone quite differently. Upon his return to the lineup in the seven-game loss to the Rangers, Mason was terrific and, no slight to Ray Emery, was a potential series-changing presence. Mason is under Philadelphia’s control and has every chance to seal up the ‘franchise goalie’ status with a strong 2014-2015 season. At just 26 years old, the former Rookie of the Year still has the time and talent to re-write his career permanently.

With all of that said, the Flyers are a team with a ceiling.  Unfortunately, but realistically, that ceiling is not a berth in the Stanley Cup Finals. The last few cup winners have demonstrated that an elite defensive core is essential to the type of postseason success that has evaded the Flyers for a few years now. The Flyers do not possess such talent and, if they are patient with their prospects, won’t for at least two years. For the time being, the Flyers will go as far as their offense and Mason takes them. The defense will have stretches where they play above their level, but this is not a group that is dependable on for long-term success. Here are three reasons the 2014-2015 Flyers Will and Will Not Make the Postseason.

3 REASONS THE FLYERS WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

1. The Flyers have a potentially elite first line. 

In a perfect world, one would have hoped the Flyers would have found a winger to play alongside with elite goal-scoring potential. Were that the case, the team could play Jake Voracek on the second line and have the luxury of putting a legitimate playmaker on each of their first two offensive units. The consolation prize for not living in a perfect world? The Flyers play both of them on the top line and it’s an extremely potent combination.

After both Voracek and Giroux got off to slow starts last season, the two of them picked it up down the stretch and were among the biggest reasons for the rally into the postseason. It is arguable that each of them, especially Voracek, have another level to reach towards. All reports are that both players are in better shape entering this season and hope to build on another season of chemistry.

Scott Hartnell, though he went through a few demotions throughout the lineup, was the third member of the Flyers top line last season. Now that #HartnellGone, the pressure shifts to Brayden Schenn to provide the scoring punch that Hartnell was capable of. The 23-year-old forward has been dealing with high expectations since his arrival from the Los Angeles Kings organization, though he has played well and is coming off a career year, there are still some that expect more from the 5th overall pick in the 2009 draft. Playing alongside Giroux and Voracek, he will have every opportunity to live up to that promise. Should Schenn take that extra step that many expect of him, the Flyers first line will be better than it ever was with Hartnell on it. Especially within the Metropolitan Division, there are very few teams with the sort of ‘stopper line’ that could consistently handle a performing Schenn-Giroux-Voracek line.

2. The Flyers should be great in both special teams departments. 

In terms of 5-on-5 hockey, the Flyers are middle-of-the-pack in relation to the rest of the NHL. What tips the competitive edge in the Flyers favor often times is their special teams units. The Philadelphia power play and penalty kill both have the capability of being among the league’s best. The power play (19.8%) and penalty kill (84.8) were both good for 7th in the NHL. Sean Couturier may be the best individual penalty killer in hockey. Much like their top line, the Flyers power play is devastating when it’s clicking. Mark Streit will be taking over Timonen’s duties as far as the defenseman on the Flyers’ top unit. Though Timonen’s vision and playmaking may be missed, Streit provides more of a scoring threat from the top of the point and the presence of  Giroux and Voracek should balance out what is missed with Timonen’s absence. Special teams was a huge reason that the Flyers were able to come back in so many games last season and should be a big reason for whatever success they have this year.

3. Steve Mason Is One Good Season (Like Last Season) From Becoming Franchise Goaltender

I remember watching the Flyers 2nd to last game of the 2013-2014 season. It was a game that clinched their spot in the playoffs, but possibly cost them any chance at success. Toward the end of the second period, Penguins forward Jayson Megna crashed into Steve Mason on a dead play. Mason remained in the game to complete the frame, but was replaced by Ray Emery to finish out the 4-3 overtime win. Mason would not return to the ice until game four of the Flyers first round playoff series against the Rangers. He would go on to post a 2-2 record along with a nifty 1.97 GAA (best in the playoffs). It was eventually revealed that Mason had suffered a concussion and could not return until he passed all of the mandated protocols for concussion treatment. The Rangers were the better team against the Flyers over the course of the seven-game series. That being said, considering the Flyers only lost by a goal in game seven, Mason’s presence could have tipped the scales in an earlier game during the series.

Aside from going through revisionist history, it’s best to look at the positives of Mason’s performance last year. It was his first full season of 20 or more games since 2012-2013 and he posted a 2.50 goals against and .917 save percentage. The Flyers would not have made the playoffs without Mason and, at his best, the young netminder appeared just as talented as he seemed when he captured the Calder trophy in 2008-2009. Mason might be the most talented option between the pipes for the Flyers since Sergei Bobrovsky. Seeing as they have no intentions of bringing in any sort of other options, the job is Mason’s to lose. I am pretty hopeful that he will put together another strong season and continue to do the seemingly impossible: ease goalie woes in Philadelphia.

Now, for three reasons the Flyers WON’T make the playoffs.

1. The defense is really bad

As much as I love Kimmo Timonen, his absence is not the reason the Flyers defense is not exactly a ‘strength’ of this years Flyers team. Even with Timonen, the Flyers blue line was a major weak point of last season’s team and was arguably it’s undoing against the Rangers. One of the realities of the start of the Hextall era was that the team was handicapped by an underperforming, expensive, second-rate defense group. There is nothing close to a ‘number one’ type player, but rather a cluster of 2s, 3s, and 4s. Braydon Coburn has gone from defender who’s just trying to reach his potential to disappointing underperformer. He will continue to play top-pairing minutes, for the sole reason that he is the only player capable of doing so. Last season’s trade deadline acquisition Andrew MacDonald is about as underwhelming a talent as one can come across. Like Coburn, he will be forced into top-four minutes and most likely be the target of frustration for fans throughout the season. Luke Schenn and Nicklas Grossmann will continue to plod along the back-end and provide almost no sort of offensive presence whatsoever. Michael Del Zotto could be a pleasant surprise, but he did little in the preseason to give hope for that to happen. As mentioned before, the Flyers have a prospect group that, in a few years, could represent an elite group among the NHL ranks. Until then, fans will have to continue to stomach a product on the ice that is subpar to say the least.

2. The Flyers can’t withstand any sort of lengthy absence of Giroux or Mason

The fact that Claude Giroux is the unquestioned emotional leader of the Flyers whose performance has almost a direct correlation with the team’s performance on the ice isn’t necessary a bad thing. There are only a handful of players with Giroux’s talents, intangibles, and flair for the dramatics in the entire NHL. The Flyers should feel lucky enough to have one of them. However, due to the fact that there isn’t yet an established presence on the team that can take over the reins for a few games should Giroux suffer an injury, the team is quite vulnerable when their captain isn’t on the ice. When Giroux struggled at the beginning of last season, so did the team. After going 4-9-1 before Giroux scored his first goal, the Flyers went 38-21-9. He has the capability of shouldering the scoring load for the team if he is healthy. If Giroux sustains another drought such as last year, it stands to reason that the team might do the same.

It’s tough to say how interested the Flyers were in upgrading the backup goaltender position this past offseason. Re-signing veteran Ray Emery to another one-year deal either says they did not care much, or that they did not have the financial flexibility to splurge on a luxury. Once upon a time, Ray Emery could handle the rigors of being a starting NHL goalie. Nowadays, after injury and ten seasons in the league, Emery is far more valuable in a ‘spot start’ situation rather than any sort of long stretch. Mason might not be the franchise option for the Flyers moving forward, but he’s the only player on the roster with the talent to be that answer. Prospect Anthony Stolarz is still some time away and Emery is simply riding out the end of his career. An injury to Mason would be devastating for the organization.

3. Craig Berube is still unproven as a high-tier coach 

Much like Ryne Sandberg with the Phillies, Craig Berube stepped into a less-than-ideal situation upon taking over as head coach after just three games into the 2013-2014 season. After an apparently disgraceful preseason and training camp as far as preparation, Berube had to improve areas such as conditioning and physical fitness while implementing his own systems and strategies. Berube deserved all the accolades that come with a playoff berth and he absolutely earned an opportunity to come back as coach this season. With all of that said, I am not convinced he is the type of coach that can bring out the best in this team and eventually lead them to a Stanley Cup.

I do, however, think he could be that coach. If he and Ron Hextall can continue to develop a positive working relationship, I think the two could make up a coach-GM combo that might bring championship hockey back to Philadelphia. Berube is not afraid to challenge his players and has a strong, correct take on how important it is to improve in overall team speed, fitness, and discipline. From a big picture standpoint, Berube has the right approach on most of the key points of coaching.

What we’re still waiting on at this point is the ability to outscheme and outstrategize opponents. Especially against teams like the Rangers, Devils, and Bruins, the Flyers have recently seemed easy to stymy with a collective defensive effort. Though a big part of the Flyers progress on offense has to do with the development of players like Couturier and Schenn, it is equally important that the team continues to develop offensive and defensive approaches that keep the opposition off-balance. Can Craig Berube do this with the benefit of a full offseason? Remains to be seen.

2014-2015 PREDICTIONS

MVP: Claude Giroux-This is an easy selection. Giroux is far and away the best player on the team. His teammates feed off of his success and he provides the pulse for the entire locker room. Slow starts have doomed Giroux the past two seasons. Here’s to hoping he can flip the switch earlier than 15 games in this season.

Breakout Player: Jason Akeson-Though it’s possible that this could end up going to a bigger name such as Schenn or Couturier, there is something about Akeson that you can’t ignore. The slightish fourth-line winger has a knack for the puck and a goal scorer’s touch that supersedes his spot on the depth chart. He had a pair of goals in the playoffs and, just by making the team, positions himself for a breakout season. With the fourth line appearing to be more of a offensive-geared unit compared to a checking or defensive group, expect Akeson to be in position to provide unexpected offensive punch. I also would not be surprised if he gets some time on the second power play grouping.

Biggest Disappointment: Brayden Schenn-Unfortunately for Brayden Schenn, he is victim to his role in the Flyers trade involving Mike Richards. Schenn, not Wayne Simmonds, was supposed to be the crown jewel of the swap that sent away the former captain prior to the 2011-2012 season. Ultimately, what I expect to be the reason Schenn doesn’t reach that potential in Philadelphia is due to the logjam at the center position. Schenn was supposed to play center upon his arrival to the Flyers. The fact that Vinny Lecavalier is incapable of doing so and is forced into the nightly lineup is as big a reason for Schenn along the wing as any. It’s possible that he can demonstrate the sort of goal-scoring ability that Scott Hartnell managed to do a handful of times. Schenn has the physicality and talents to do so. There is a lot of pressure going along with being the wing on Claude Giroux’s line and it seems like setting the young man up for failure.

BEST-CASE SCENARIO FINISH: Giroux’s 82-game wizardry leads him to his first MVP trophy and a 2nd place division finish for the Flyers. A healthy Steve Mason makes an appearance in the All-Star game and finishes the season having improved on his 2.50 GAA posted in 2013-2014. Schenn and Couturier contribute on offense to the tune of a combined 100 points and Wayne Simmonds continues to rack up goals on the power play. The defense stays healthy long enough and a late-season call-up of prospect Shayne Gostisbehere provides an extra punch from the blue line. Craig Berube’s emphasis on conditioning and fitness has the team playing their best hockey toward the end of the season. 100 Points, 2nd in Metropolitan Division, Host first round playoff series against 3rd place division finisher. 

WORST-CASE SCENARIO FINISH: Giroux suffers injury or lengthy scoring drought and team is unable to rebound from it. Steve Mason withers under pressure of trying to establish spot as franchise goalie and some of the tendencies shown in his final days in Columbus start to surface. Couturier and Schenn fail to combine for 60 points and trade value continues to drop. Defense suffers early injuries and organization executes trade deadline deal akin to MacDonald deal last season. Lack of overall scoring depth insurmountable.

80 Points, 7th in Metropolitan Division, Miss Playoffs, Berube Fired

OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

I think the Flyers will probably make the playoffs as a 7th or 8th seed, much like last season. I expect Giroux to be among the top five in the NHL in scoring, again. I expect Steve Mason to do enough to where his status is not questioned entering the 2015-2016 season. I think that one, not both of Schenn and Couturier will have a ‘breakout season’. I do not think any member of the defense will do enough to ease concerns over that group. The fourth line will be a fun spectacle to track and one of the big reasons the Flyers make the playoffs. The Flyers will, once again, lose in the first round of the playoffs, costing Craig Berube his job.

94 Points, 3rd in Metropolitan Division, Road team in first round playoff series, Berube Fired.