2012 Philadelphia Eagles 1st Round Draft Preview and Mock Draft

The 1st round of the NFL Draft is Thursday night at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. It starts at 8:00 PM EDT, and it will be televised on both ESPN and the NFL Network. The Eagles could go in a number of directions in this year’s draft. GM Howie Roseman said the team will draft this year strictly based on the “best player available” theory, which states that a team should draft the highest-rated player on their draft board when their pick rolls around regardless of position or need. The Eagles have needs at DT, LB, and S, and could use depth at QB, RB, CB, and OL. The Eagles’ draft this year is very unpredictable, as they could trade up, trade down, or stay put and no one would be surprised. Here are the scenarios the Eagles could undergo and the players they could target Thursday night.

Trade Up: there are a few teams looking to move down in the draft, but the most intriguing team is definitely the Jacksonville Jaguars, who hold the 7th pick in the draft. This draft has a consensus top-6 players: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne, and Justin Blackmon. The Jags know they hold the 7th choice in a 6-player draft, and they are desperately trying to move down. The Eagles have the ammo to move up if they want, as they have two 2nd round picks and a 3rd rounder.

Reports coming out of the Eagles camp are that they are smitten with Fletcher Cox, a 6-4, 298 pound DT from Mississippi State. He’s good against the run, but is an excellent pass rusher as well, which surely appeals to the Eagles because of Jim Washburn’s Wide-9 defensive line scheme. Cox probably won’t make it past the Carolina Panthers at the 9th pick, so they would most likely have to trade up to get Cox.

Another player that would make sense for the Eagles to trade up for is Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly. Kuechly is a 6-3, 240 pound linebacker who has the versatility to play both inside and outside in a 4-3 scheme. Despite the addition of DeMeco Ryans in a trade, the Eagles still need upgrades at both outside linebacker positions. Kuechly would certainly provide that, and he figures to be off the board by the 12th pick in the draft, which is held by the Seattle Seahawks. However, trading up for Kuechly would be a drastic change from the Eagles’ organizational philosophy, which is to devalue the linebacker position. While many fans would like to see this happen, including me, it doesn’t seem very likely.

Finally, Alabama safety Mark Barron is another player the Eagles could target with a move up. His stock is on the rise, as teams see him as a safety that is good enough in coverage to play free safety while being strong enough in run support to play strong safety. There are reports that the Buffalo Bills have interest in him at the 10th pick, while the Dallas Cowboys are certainly salivating over the possibility of him being available at their 14th pick. A move up for Barron would signal that the Eagles might be giving up on young safeties Nate Allen and Jaiquan Jarrett very quickly. Since both of these players were 2nd round picks in the last 2 years, it figures that the Eagles will give them at least one more season of seasoning. They also traditionally haven’t spent first round picks on safeties, so this would be a surprising move. Although it would make sense, it doesn’t seem likely.

Stay Put: if the Eagles decide to stay at the 15th pick in the draft, there are still going to be quality players available to them. At

defensive tackle, LSU’s Michael Brockers and Memphis’ Dontari Poe are the two likely targets. Brockers is a 6-5, 322 pound run stuffer who is still raw and needs work on his pass-rushing. Poe’s stock skyrocketed after the Scouting Combine, where the 6-4, 350 pounder ran an astonishing sub-4.90 40 yard dash time. However, he didn’t have great numbers from his time at Memphis and that has raised questions. He’s probably better suited to be a nose tackle in the 3-4 than he is in a 4-3, especially in a scheme like the Eagles’ that relies on pass-rushing DTs so much.

The Eagles could also take a look at cornerback at the 15th pick. With today’s trade of Asante Samuel to the Atlanta Falcons for a 7th round pick, there is a need at CB. The Eagles figure to start Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie opposite Nnamdi Asomugha next season, but with DRC’s less-than-stellar play last year there’s no guarantee that will work. There are a few CB options at this point in the draft, and any of them could be the best player on the Eagles’ draft board. South Carolina’s Stephon Gilmore has rocketed up draft boards and is now considered the 2nd-best corner in the draft after LSU’s Morris Claiborne. Gilmore looks to be an excellent man corner in the NFL due to his size (6-foot, 190 pounds) and speed (4.44 40 yard dash). He’s an excellent run defender already, but was somewhat inconsistent at SC. There’s some talk that he might crack the top 10, so the Eagles may not even be able to get him at 15. The other corner who will be discussed at 15 is Alabama’s Dre Kirkpatrick, who was a standout in the defensive backfield for the national champion Crimson Tide. He’s 6-2, 186 and was a dominant force in both coverage and the run game. He’s got foot speed (4.46 40 yard dash), but is also a sure tackler. He wasn’t tested much this past season, and he was also arrested in the offseason for marijuana possession (the charges were later dropped). If the Eagles want to go with a CB at 15, Kirkpatrick would be an excellent choice. However, he doesn’t have a lot of experience in the slot, where he would most likely be utilized in Philadelphia, so the Eagles could opt to go in a different direction after their experiment with DRC in the slot ended badly.

There are also defensive ends that the Eagles could have as their “best player available” at 15. One is UNC DE Quinton Coples.

He’s 6-5, 281 and is an excellent pass rusher who is a good fit in the Wide-9 at DE and could slide inside to DT on passing downs. However, there are question marks about his work ethic, since he seemed to take plays off during the season at UNC. He was once considered a consensus top-10 pick, but his draft stock has now slid to the point that he’s been mocked everywhere from 12 to 32. Andy Reid loves having a deep defensive line rotation and Coples has talent, but he’s a luxury for a team that already has Trent Cole and Jason Babin at DE. The pick could (and should) be used on a more immediate need. However, the Giants proved that you can never have too many pass rushers, so Coples might make sense at 15. The other is pass rusher Chandler Jones, who is 6-5 and 266 pounds. He’s excellent at getting to the QB with his good speed rush and bull rush. He’s adequate against the run from the DE position, he’s a hard worker with a good motor, and he’s also got good bloodlines: one of his brothers plays for the Ravens, the other is MMA superstar Jon “Bones” Jones. The only question mark surrounding him is durability (he missed 7 games with a knee injury this year). Jones would be a similar pick to Coples, although with Jones there is a guaranteed work ethic that Coples doesn’t have. However, Coples has the higher upside. Either one of these picks would be an extreme luxury for a defense that still needs upgrades.

A potential wild card selection at 15 is Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd. Andy Reid likes to zig when everyone else expects him to zag, and choosing Floyd would certainly fit that profile. Reid does like to add talent at the skill positions, even when no one expects it. A good example of that is when Reid traded up to acquire Jeremy Maclin in the first round of the 2009 draft. Floyd is a 6-3, 224 monster who has spectacular hands and is an excellent red zone target. However, he was occasionally corralled by double teams at Notre Dame and had some legal trouble. Floyd would add another potent weapon to an excellent Eagles’ offense and could solve their red zone woes, but the defense needs to be addressed first and foremost.

Trade Down: the Eagles could opt to trade down if they don’t see value at the 15th pick. Some of the players previously mentioned could be available later in the first round, in which case the Eagles would probably attempt to trade down. The only new players the Eagles might consider later in the round are Stanford TE Coby Fleener and Michigan State DT Jerel Worthy. Fleener was Andrew Luck’s favorite target at Stanford, and would be another option for Michael Vick and the Eagles in the passing game. 2 TE sets are becoming more and more common in today’s NFL, and the Patriots have showed that having two excellent receiving tight ends can be a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. Fleener isn’t a great blocker, but he does a passable job and would help the Eagles in the red zone. If the Eagles trade down to the end of the first round, Fleener would be an interesting pick for them. Worthy is a 6-3, 310 pound DT who can collapse the pocket and get to the QB. He plays with a fiery, intense passion and was a team leader at MSU. However, he was inconsistent and occasionally got frustrated and took bad penalties. He would be a good fit as an interior pass rusher in the Wide-9 if the Eagles wanted to trade back towards the end of the first round. Trading down, however, is by far the least likely of the 3 scenarios to occur on draft night.

Here’s my mock draft (without trades) for the entire first round of the 2012 NFL Draft:
1) Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford
2) Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor
3) Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT USC
4) Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB LSU
6) St. Louis Rams: Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma State
7) Jacksonville Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina
8) Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
9) Carolina Panthers: Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi State
10) Buffalo Bills: Malcolm Floyd, WR Notre Dame
11) Kansas City Chiefs: David DeCastro, G Stanford
12) Seattle Seahawks: Luke Kuechly, LB Boston College
13) Arizona Cardinals: Riley Reiff, OT Iowa
14) Dallas Cowboys: Mark Barron, S Alabama
15) Philadelphia Eagles: Quinton Coples, DE UNC
16) New York Jets: Melvin Ingram, DE South Carolina
17) Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama
18) San Diego Chargers: Chandler Jones, DE/OLB Syracuse
19) Chicago Bears: Michael Brockers, DT LSU
20) Tennessee Titans: Courtney Upshaw, DE Alabama
21) Cincinnati Bengals: Cordy Glenn, G/OT Georgia
22) Cleveland Browns: Kendall Wright, WR Baylor
23) Detroit Lions: Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford
24) Pittsburgh Steelers: Dontari Poe, NT Memphis
25) Denver Broncos: Peter Konz, G/C Wisconsin
26) Houston Texans: Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech
27) New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois
28) Green Bay Packers: Shea McClellin, DE/OLB Boise State
29) Baltimore Ravens: Dont’a Hightower, LB Alabama
30) San Francisco 49ers: Amini Silatolu, G/OT Midwestern State
31) New England Patriots: Harrison Smith, S Notre Dame
32) New York Giants: Nick Perry, DE USC