Flyers-Penguins Game 5 Preview

The Flyers look to capitalize on their second chance to finish off the Penguins and close out their first round series tonight in Pittsburgh at 7:30 EDT. Here’s a preview of tonight’s Game 5 at the Consol Energy Center:

Injury News: For the Penguins, defenseman Paul Martin is out again with an undisclosed upper-body injury. They will have James Neal and Craig Adams returning from suspensions for tonight’s game as well. For the Flyers, shutdown defenseman Nicklas Grossmann is out indefinitely with a concussion suffered as a result of a Tyler Kennedy hit to the head and a particularly damaging Evgeni Malkin elbow to the head. Since Marc-Andre Bourdon is still sidelined with the upper-body injury that knocked him out of Game 1, rookie defenseman Erik Gustafsson will make his postseason debut for the Flyers tonight. Winger James van Riemsdyk has been cleared to play, and is expected to replace Zac Rinaldo in the Flyers’ lineup this evening. However, that change is not confirmed yet. Philadelphia sports personality Howard Eskin reported that Ilya Bryzgalov has a hip injury that came as a result of him overcompensating for his earlier foot injury. However, the Flyers vehemently denied this report, saying Bryzgalov was fine and he would be the Game 5 starter. However, the Flyers recalled Michael Leighton from the minor leagues, seemingly as insurance.

Projected Line Combinations (left to right):
Flyers:
Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr
Schenn-Briere-Simmonds
Talbot-Couturier-van Riemsdyk
Wellwood-Read-Voracek
If van Riemsdyk is not able to play, Voracek will take his spot on the 3rd line and Rinaldo will move down to the 4th line where Voracek currently is listed.

Penguins:
Kunitz-Malkin-Neal
Sullivan-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Adams-Vitale-Park

Projected Defensive Pairings:
Flyers:
Timonen-Coburn
Carle-Gustafsson
Lilja-Kubina

Penguins:
Niskanen-Letang
Orpik-Michalek
Depres-Engelland

The Penguins also might play 7 defenseman and 11 forwards tonight as they did in Game 4 instead of the traditional 6/12 alignment. in that case Strait would be the 7th defenseman and Vitale would be scratched.

Both teams send their starters from the first 4 games back into net tonight. The Flyers are hoping for a rebound performance from Ilya Bryzgalov, while the Penguins are hoping that Marc-Andre Fleury can continue the turnaround that started after the first period in Game 4.

3 Keys to the Game:
1) Ilya Bryzgalov and Marc-Andre Fleury:
After the Flyers opened the series with 3 wins despite his mediocre play, Bryzgalov had a terrible game Wednesday night, giving up 5 goals on just 18 shots. He looked tentative and slow, which would be explained by the hip injury that Howard Eskin reported, although GM Paul Holmgren denied the injury. For the series, he’s got just a .844 save percentage and an alarming 4.95 GAA. The dirty secret in this series for the Flyers is that the defense and goaltending haven’t been that good. They’ve been winning games based on their outrageous offensive output (with some help from Marc-Andre Fleury, of course). Bryz has to step up his game if the Flyers want to end the series in Pittsburgh tonight. Meanwhile, for the Penguins Fleury has been absolutely abysmal this series, particularly in games 2 and 3. He’s got an outrageous 5.43 GAA to go along with a dismal .817 save percentage in the series. However, he rebounded Wednesday by stopping 22 of 25 shots, and not allowing a goal after the first period. It goes without saying that whoever wins the goaltending matchup tonight is very likely to win the game.

2) New Faces
For the Flyers, they have at least 1, and hopefully 2 new players in the lineup tonight in James van Riemsdyk and Erik Gustafsson. Van Riemsdyk’s return is more of a luxury: he adds another offensive weapon who, when healthy and on his game, is a dominant force to be reckoned with. We all saw how well he performed in the postseason last year against the Bruins, and it earned him a massive contract extension in the offseason that he hasn’t lived up to this season. If JVR is healthy, Fleury could be in for another long night. Even more crucial to the Flyers’ hopes in Game 5, however, is Erik Gustafsson. He’s replacing Nicklas Grossmann, who was paired with Brayden Coburn on the Flyers’ shutdown defensive pairing that matched up with Evgeni Malkin’s line. Gustafsson doesn’t bring the shot-blocking and crease-clearing big bodied presence that Grossmann does, but he’s a good skater who can move the puck well. With Kimmo Timonen most likely shifting to a pairing with Coburn that will be the Flyers’ defensive pairing, it’s important that Gustafsson and Carle provide an offensive threat from the back line for the Flyers in 5-on-5 situations.

3) Discipline
Both teams have been potent on the power play of late, as the Flyers went 3-5 in Game 4 and the Penguins went 5-9. After the brawls in Game 3, the officiating crew called Game 4 very tightly and it’s likely that we’ll see more of the same in Game 5. With both teams struggling on the PK, it’s important that they avoid the penalty box and spend as little time on the PK as possible. It’s not a stretch to say that whoever gets the most power play opportunities has a very good chance of winning the game.

Prediction:
Penguins 5, Flyers 3. They can’t lose every game at home, right? I predict that Ilya Bryzgalov struggles again in net (perhaps as a result of this mysterious hip injury) and the Flyers make a goalie change in Game 6. I also think Erik Gustafsson will struggle in his first postseason game, and go -1 or worse. Finally, I believe that the Penguins will get more power play opportunities than the Flyers and convert on those opportunities, leading to a Game 6 back in Philadelphia. Hopefully I’m wrong, enjoy the game. Let’s go Flyers!