Game 1 Preview: Flyers-Penguins

The Flyers and Penguins take the Consol Energy Center ice tonight in Pittsburgh at 7:30 EDT (on NBC Sports or CSN Philly, depending on where you live) for Game 1 of their highly anticipated first round playoff series. I wrote a much longer preview for the entire series yesterday, but here’s an update and a prediction for Game 1.

Injury News:
The Flyers announced today that both Nicklas Grossmann and Danny Briere would play today, a big boost to both the offense and the defense. Grossmann clears bodies away from the front of the net and blocks shots, a crucial skill to have against the Penguins, while Briere is one of the best scorers come playoff time, as he’s averaged around a point-per-game in his illustrious playoff career that’s seen everything but a Stanley Cup win.

Surprise Scratch:
The Flyers decided to scratch deadline-acquisition Pavel Kubina from the lineup tonight and instead go with the rookie Marc-Andre Bourdon. Bourdon did have a goal 2 weeks ago in their 2nd-to-last meeting, but it was still surprising to see Peter Laviolette decide to play the untested rookie Bourdon over the hulking, Cup-winning Kubina. My guess is that the Flyers decided that Kubina couldn’t skate well enough to keep up with the high-powered Pens offense, but I’m not sure. We’ll see if this move backfires on the Flyers tonight.

Projected Line Combinations (listed from left to right):

Flyers:
Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr
Schenn-Briere-Simmonds
Voracek-Read-Wellwood
Talbot-Couturier-Rinaldo

Penguins:
Neal-Malkin-Kunitz
Sullivan-Crosby-Dupuis
Cooke-Staal-Kennedy
Adams-Vitale-Asham

No surprises in net, as both teams send their #1 goaltenders in Marc-Andre Fleury and Ilya Bryzgalov out onto the ice.

3 Keys to the Game:
1) Ilya Bryzgalov
Bryz capped off an incredible 6-week stretch with an unfortunate foot injury, and hasn’t seen much playing time since his recovery. It remains to be seen whether he’s still got the form that allowed him to post a 1.61 GAA over that stretch. His play will be key to the Flyers’ success in this game (and the entire series). If he stops the pucks that should be stopped (and hopefully a few more), the Flyers have a chance to win every game. If he lets in some soft goals, the Penguins will win the game.

2) Special Teams
The Flyers need to stay out of the penalty box in an effort to keep the Penguins’ dominant PP unit off the ice. With their shaky PK group, they simply can’t afford to give the Penguins many chances on the power play if they want to win. When the Flyers have a power play, they must convert opportunities. Fleury is an excellent goaltender, and he doesn’t let many pucks past him. If you’re going to score goals, power plays are probably your best chance of doing so.

3) Returns from Injury
Nicklas Grossmann and Danny Briere make their return from injuries suffered in the March 29th game against the Penguins tonight. Grossmann will probably be part of the defensive pairing (along with Brayden Coburn) that sees much of the ice time against the Neal-Malkin-Kunitz line (which sometimes includes Sidney Crosby as well), so it’s imperative that he plays like he did when healthy: blocking shots and clearing bodies. On the offensive side, Briere’s line figures to be a key to this game. Since the Pens will most likely throw their best defensive pairing (either Letang-Orpik or Letang-Martin) at the Hartnell-Giroux-Jagr line, Briere (along with Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds) figure to get some scoring opportunities tonight. If Briere and his linemates can bury those scoring chances, the Flyers will win this game.

Prediction:
Penguins 4, Flyers 2. The Flyers give up 2 quick goals and eventually fight back to cut the deficit to 3-2 before an empty net goal by the Penguins. Peter Laviolette hasn’t won Game 1 of a playoff series with the Flyers since the first game of the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals vs. Montreal, and hasn’t won one on the road since Game 1 of the 2010 first round series vs. the New Jersey Devils. Overall, Laviolette is just 2-4 in the first game of a series with the Flyers. I say the absence of Kubina hurts, as the Bourdon-Lilja pairing is on the ice for at least one goal. Meanwhile, Fleury steps up and limits the Flyers’ offense. Hopefully I’m wrong. Enjoy the game, and go Flyers!