Flyers vs Penguins: Series Preview
The NHL playoffs are upon us, and the Flyers-Penguins first round matchup that has loomed for a few weeks now has come to fruition. It’s widely seen around the NHL as the marquee first-round matchup, evidenced by the fact that it’s the opening game of the playoffs (Wednesday night at 7:30). Whatever order you want to put the teams in, it’s clear that the Rangers, Flyers, and Penguins are the top 3 contenders in the Eastern Conference by far. This first round series will eliminate one very good team from the playoffs, an unfortunate by-product of the NHL’s divisional seeding, which this year rewarded an extremely mediocre Florida Panthers team that won the subpar Southeast Division with the 3-seed in the conference. In fact, if the NHL seeded their playoff teams strictly by points, the Penguins would claim the 2 seed and the Flyers would get the 3 seed, as both teams would leapfrog the Northeast Division (and defending Stanley Cup-champion) Boston Bruins. Alas, the NHL still seeds in the archaic divisional manner and the Flyers and Penguins square off in the first round. Here’s a preview of the series with my prediction at the end:
Trends:
The Flyers dominated the head-to-head series this season, winning 4 out of the 6 games between the two teams. Since the Flyers rested Claude Giroux and Ilya Bryzgalov in the season finale vs. Pittsburgh, one could argue that the Flyers are really 4-1 against the Penguins in meaningful games. The Flyers have also dominated the Penguins in their new home arena, going 5-1 in the first 2 years of the Consol Energy Center, with the only loss coming in the aforementioned regular season finale. The advantage clearly goes to the Flyers.
Goalies:
The Penguins boast one of the best net-minders in the league in Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury has a career GAA of 2.68, an already stellar mark, but he’s played even better in the postseason, recording a .910 save percentage and a GAA of 2.52. This season was one of the best of Fleury’s career, as he put up 29 wins, a .913 save percentage and a 2.36 GAA. Fleury’s extremely battle-tested, as he’s won a Stanley Cup with the Penguins, played in the finals another time, and overall boasts a 41-28 career mark in the playoffs. The Flyers will be hard-pressed to light the lamp against Fleury in this series.
Meanwhile, it wouldn’t be a Flyers playoff series without some goalie controversy. Ilya Bryzgalov is the starter for Game 1 (and hopefully
the rest of the series). He had an up-and-down year, finishing with a .909 save percentage and a 2.48 GAA fueled by an incredible 6-week stretch after a rocky start to the year. Unfortunately, his hot streak was derailed by a broken bone in his foot that saw him miss most of the last two weeks of the season. In his last 2 games, he gave up 5 goals in a home loss to the Rangers but bounced back to allow just 1 goal in a win against the Sabres. Based on his rocky season, there’s no way to know what you’ll get out of the enigmatic Bryzgalov in this series. Since he burst onto the scene with the Anaheim Ducks in the 2006 and 2007 postseason, his play has dropped dramatically come playoff time. The past two years with Phoenix he went just 3-8, with a save percentage of .896 and an abysmal GAA of 3.73. Last year was particularly bad, as the Coyotes were swept by the Red Wings in the first round. Bryzgalov gave up 17 goals in those 4 games, and struggled to a .879 save percentage and an eye-popping (not in a good way) 4.36 GAA. Meanwhile, the Flyers have an in-house safety net in backup goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who has owned the Penguins in his short career. He’s gone 5-3-1 against them with a GAA of 2.83, but he’s been spectacular on the road against Pittsburgh, going 5-1. He’s started every away game against the Penguins in the last 2 years, a streak that will end tomorrow. The Penguins look to have the advantage in net, but Bryzgalov is capable of elevating his play to a level above where Fleury consistently performs. If Bryzgalov is subpar in the first couple games, head coach Peter Laviolette should not hesitate to pull him and go with Bobrovsky for the remainder of the series.
Defensemen:
The Penguins send out a defensive group consisting of Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik, Paul Martin, Matt Niskanen, Deryk Engelland, and Zbynek Michalek. Letang and Orpik are by far the best players of the group. Letang is an offensively-minded defenseman who accumulated an impressive 42 points in just 51 games during his All-Star campaign this season. He’s a power-play trigger man and a penalty killer, so he’s an extremely talented and versatile player. Orpik is a tough, physical defenseman who brings a veteran presence and leadership to the back line. The rest of the crew is solid if unspectacular, and is overall an above-average unit.
The Flyers, with Nik Grossmann set to return from an injury for Game 1, will send out a defensive unit of Kimmo Timonen, Matt Carle, Nik Grossmann, Pavel Kubina, Brayden Coburn, and either Andreas Lilja or Marc-Andre Bourdon. Timonen is an offensive threat from the point, racking up 43 points in 76 games during his own All-Star campaign. Carle, while prone to mental lapses and gaffes from time to time, is still an above-average defender. Grossmann and Kubina, both trade-deadline acquisitions (from Dallas and Tampa Bay, respectively) are defensively-minded players, with each bringing a unique skill. For Grossmann, it’s his elite shotblocking, which was among the league leaders. Kubina uses his massive frame (6’5, 255) to clear opponents out of the crease, while also bringing Cup-winning experience to the defense. Coburn is a big, tough defender who’s consistent and rarely makes mistakes. The Flyers could opt for the veteran Lilja over the rookie Bourdon, but both are occasionally shaky. The Flyers have the advantage on defense, as their quality depth that has allowed them to survive injuries to Chris Pronger and Andrej Meszaros outweighs the spectacular play from Letang and Orpik.
Forwards:
The Penguins boast one of the most formidable offensive units in the league. There’s talent from top to bottom on this unit. Led by Art Ross (NHL points leader) trophy winner and Hart (NHL MVP) favorite Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins offense is simply scary. They got a big boost when team captain Sidney Crosby returned from his concussion issues, as racked up 37 points in his 22 games and continued to showcase his transcendent talent on the ice. Winger James Neal had a breakout year with 40 goals, and they have quality players on each line. Chris Kunitz had 61 points, Pascal Dupuis had 59 (and an NHL-leading 19 game point streak that he takes into the playoffs), Jordan Staal had 50, and Steve Sullivan, Matt Cooke, and Tyler Kennedy all had over 30 points on the year. The team’s big strength is its depth down the middle. When you employ Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Jordan Staal at center on 3 different lines, you’ve got a good chance to score goals no matter what line is on the ice.
The Flyers also have incredible depth on their offensive unit. The team was led by the line of Scott Hartnell, Claude Giroux, and Jaromir Jagr for much of the season. Hartnell had a breakout year of his own with 37 goals, while Giroux led the team with 93 points. Jagr made his return to the NHL from Russia this season and racked up 54 points while battling nagging injuries throughout the year. He also provides the Flyers with a veteran presence on offense who’s won multiple Stanley Cups. Danny Briere, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, rookie standout Matt Read, and former Penguin Max Talbot all recorded over 30 points on the year. Impressive rookies Sean Couturier and Brayden Schenn also helped pace the offense, while Zac Rinaldo brings toughness and Eric Wellwood brings incredible speed to the table. While the offense is very youthful (aside from Jagr), they have scoring from top to bottom and are a threat to put the puck in the net at all times. The Penguins have the advantage here, but that can be said against just about any other team in the league. The Flyers’ offense is potent as well.
Special Teams:
Both teams have impressive power play units, scoring on 19.7% of their opportunities, good to tie for 5th best in the league. The Flyers rely mainly on passes from Giroux, Jagr, and the defenseman into the slot for one-time opportunities for Scott Hartnell and Wayne Simmonds, who were both among the league-leaders in power play goals. The Penguins simply overwhelm PK units with the talent they put on the ice on the PP. When Letang, Malkin, Crosby, Kunitz, and Neal are all on the ice at the same time (as they are on some power plays), there’s a good chance goals will be scored. The Penguins, led by Letang, have a large advantage on the penalty kill. They finished 3rd in the league with an 87.8% kill rate, while the Flyers’ mediocre PK unit was 17th in the NHL with just an 81.8% kill rate. This wide gulf in the PK units gives Pittsburgh the advantage on special teams. They might be able to neutralize the Flyers’ PP group, but it seems unlikely that the Flyers can stop Pittsburgh’s.
Coaching:
Both teams sport excellent coaches. Dan Bylsma won the Cup in 2009 after taking over the Penguins mid-season. He won the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s coach of the year last season and is an excellent coach. He provides a steady and calming influence on the bench. Peter Laviolette’s bench demeanor is quite the opposite. Lavvy won the Cup in 2006 with the Carolina Hurricanes, and took over the team in December 2009. He led the team to an appearance in the Cup finals in 2010, and provides his team with fiery passion and emotional leadership. He’s become famous for the Flyers’ success after he uses a timeout, as well as his profanity-laced tirades caught on HBO’s 24/7 this year. He also was one of the main participants in the brawl with the Penguins late this season. While both coaches lead with incredibly different styles, they’re both excellent at what they do and are a wash in this series.
Injuries:
With Sidney Crosby’s return from his concussion towards the end of the season, the Penguins don’t have any lingering injuries they have to deal with. The team is, for the most part, healthy entering the postseason, particularly among its key players. There’s always a risk of
Crosby sustaining another concussion, however, so they must keep that in mind.
The Flyers, meanwhile, are decimated by injuries. Nicklas Grossmann (knee) is set to return for Game 1, but Danny Briere’s status (back) is still up in the air (for what it’s worth, I say he plays in Game 1). Andrej Meszaros (knee) and James van Riemsdyk (foot) both look to be out until the middle of the 2nd round (if the Flyers can get there), while star defenseman Chris Pronger is out for the season after suffering a nasty concussion early in the year. Bryzgalov is recovering from his broken foot, while Timonen suffers periodic back spasms that occasionally force him to sit out a game. While no team is fully healthy at this stage of the year after a grueling 82-game schedule, the Penguins are much healthier than the Flyers.
My Prediction:
Penguins in 7. While the Flyers have played better in the head-to-head matchups this season, I think the Penguins’ talent wins out and Fleury outplays Bryzgalov in net as the Penguins win a decisive Game 7 on home ice to advance to the next round of the playoffs.
Here are my predictions for the rest of the NHL Playoffs:
1st Round:
Vancouver Canucks (1) defeat Los Angeles Kings (8) in 6 games. While Jonathan Quick’s goaltending keeps LA in the series, Roberto Luongo and his backup Cory Schneider are no slouches themselves and their offensive talent wins out.
San Jose Sharks (7) defeat St. Louis Blues (2) in 6 games. The Blues have a goalie controversy in net, as Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak have both played well this season. Meanwhile, the Sharks have been on fire as of late, they have a formidable offense, and goaltender Antti Niemi can get hot and lead his team to a Cup as he did with the Blackhawks in 2010 against the Flyers.
Chicago Blackhawks (6) defeat Phoenix Coyotes (3) in 7 games. I predict Corey Crawford plays well enough in net to neutralize the Coyotes’ advantage there with Mike Smith, and the return of captain (and former Conn Smythe winner) Jonathan Toews from his concussion propels the offense to a dominant performance in the series despite their lackluster special teams.
Nashville Predators (4) defeat Detroit Red Wings (5) in 7 games. This series comes down to home ice, where Preds goalie Pekka Rinne is a stud, and Nashville rides its defensive duo of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter, combined with just enough offense, past the dangerous Red Wings.
New York Rangers (1) defeat Ottawa Senators (8) in 5 games. The Rangers have a spectacular goalie in Henrik Lundqvist, while the Senators have question marks in net and might just be happy to be there after an unexpected playoff berth.
Boston Bruins (2) defeat Washington Capitals (7) in 7 games. Although the Capitals have dominated the Bruins head-to-head this season, it’s just not smart to bet against Tim Thomas in the postseason. When he gets hot, it’s nearly impossible to beat the Bruins.
New Jersey Devils (6) defeat Florida Panthers (3) in 5 games. The Panthers are simply not that good of a team, and the Devils will ride Ilya Kovalchuck, Zach Parise, and Martin Brodeur to an easy series win.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) defeat Philadelphia Flyers (5) in 7 games. If you’ve gotten this far, you know why.
2nd Round:
San Jose Sharks (7) defeat Vancouver Canucks (1) in 7 games. Niemi plays Luongo to a draw, and the Sharks offense gets hot to spring the upset.
Nashville Predators (4) defeat Chicago Blackhawks (6) in 6 games. Rinne vastly outplays Crawford in net, and the combination of Weber, Suter, and Hal Gill shuts down the Blackhawks’ high-flying offense.
New York Rangers (1) defeat New Jersey Devils (6) in 6 games. While the Devils have the potential to spring an upset, Henrik Lundqvist is much, much better than Martin Brodeur at this stage of their careers and that is the key to the series.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) defeat Boston Bruins (2) in 5 games. Fleury neutralizes the one advantage Boston has in Tim Thomas, and the Penguins with Sidney Crosby are simply a better team than the Bruins.
Conference Finals:
Nashville Predators (4) defeat San Jose Sharks (7) in 6 games. The Preds have the superior goaltender and they have the dominant defensive unit to neutralize the Sharks’ offense. Nashville makes its first trip to the Finals in franchise history.
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) defeat New York Rangers (1) in 7 games. The Penguins have owned the Rangers this season, and Fleury will outplay Lundqvist in this series. The Penguins offense finally penetrates the vaunted Rangers defense and the franchise makes its 3rd trip to the Cup in 5 years.
Stanley Cup Finals:
Pittsburgh Penguins defeat Nashville Predators in 5 games. The Penguins are the most talented team in the field, and that will culminate with them hoisting the Cup in June. They have the goaltending to match up with Rinne, and they have the offensive depth to score on the Preds. The Flyers will wonder what might have been if they didn’t have to face the Penguins in the first round.
Sound off in the comments! Tell me what you think will happen in the Flyers-Pens series, as well as the entire postseason. Enjoy the playoffs, and go Flyers!