Section 215’s 10 Questions About the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies
By: Tyler Trumbauer and Stephane Hardinger
This upcoming 2012 season for the Philadelphia Phillies will be their most intriguing yet. They aren’t entering the season being the favorite to win the Fall Classic. They aren’t entering the season on a high note of a successful playoff run the season before. The 2012 Phillies are entering the regular season worrying about injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They are unsure of how John Mayberry Jr. is going to fare being the everyday left fielder. They aren’t sure of how their new fleet of reserve players will deliver when called upon. Fellow Section 215 staff writer, Stephane Hardinger, and I compiled 10 questions about the upcoming season for the Phillies. We each have given our own response to the questions. Go Phillies!
1. How will the absence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard affect the Phillies offensively and defensively?
Stephane: Obviously, the absence of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard for the majority of the first half of the season is going to have a negative impact on the offense. Any time you lose your 3-4 hitters who’ve been the centerpieces of your lineup for almost a decade, it leaves a void in the offense that isn’t easily replaced. The Phillies are better suited to deal with the Howard injury, however, because Ruben Amaro, Jr. had an entire offseason to acquire a backup plan, and he did so by bringing in Juan Pierre, Ty Wigginton, and Jim Thome to help offset the loss of Howard. Wigginton and Thome will try to replicate Howard’s power, while Pierre allows promising youngster John Mayberry, Jr. to play some 1st base. Meanwhile, Utley’s injury caught the front office by surprise, and combined with the trade of Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez’s foot injury, the Phillies were ill-prepared to handle it. Light-hitting rookie Freddy Galvis is the only available replacement, and he doesn’t project to bring a fraction of the pop that Utley does, even after all of his injuries.
Defensively, Utley is above-average and while Galvis was a very good fielder in the minor leagues, it’s probably still a downgrade in the middle infield since Galvis doesn’t have the connection with Rollins that Utley does. Howard wasn’t a great fielder by any stretch of the imagination, but his replacements are even worse. Wigginton is a below-average fielder at every position he plays, Thome hasn’t played 1st base in 5 years and is well past his prime, and Mayberry Jr. is a converted outfielder. Unfortunately, the injuries to Utley and Howard will decimate the lineup offensively and weaken the team’s defense. How they weather the early storm without their star players is going to be key to the team’s chances this season.
Tyler: The absence of those two superstars to the Philies line-up will be drastic. Offensively, the Utley injury will hurt the Phillies more as Freddy Galvis will be the replacement for Utley. Galvis is a young, inexperienced player that will require some time to get accustomed to big league pitching. Also, Howard never produced that much earlier in the season.
On the defensive side of it all, Galvis is a pretty good fielder. He won’t make to occasional spectacular plays that we are used to seeing from Utley. The replacing Howard will be interesting as there is multiple players that will play the role of starting first baseman in his absence. Wigginton I think will be the best substitute for Howard. Thome and Mayberry Jr. will also get some time over there.
The bottom line is, not having Howard or Utley for most likely the majority of the season will hurt the Phillies tremendously. All the national pundits think the absence of these two will setback the Phillies so much that they might not even make the playoffs. I think they are underestimating the substitutes that will be stepping in their roles. Those reserve players must consistently be performing adequately or those pundits will be correct.
2. Will John Mayberry Jr. be an upgrade or a downgrade from Raul Ibanez in left field?
Tyler: This is an easy question. John Mayberry Jr. will be an upgrade from Raul Ibanez in left field. Mayberry Jr. did struggle this spring; Mayberry hit only .203 this spring. Also, Mayberry in the past has struggled with hitting the curve ball. He has worked diligently on his hitting and it has improved, but his struggles this spring will make us worry in the beginning of this season. Raul Ibanez was aging and couldn’t cover the area that Mayberry Jr. can cover. Ibanez had to leave and go to the American League. Ibanez is still a good baseball player as he can hit well, but he is too old to play at a high level in the National League. Mayberry may not be dominant right out of the gate, but at the end of the season I guarantee he will have produced numbers that will be above Ibanez’s from a few years ago.
Stephane: I think JMJ will be an upgrade over Raul Ibanez in left field. Last year, Ibanez hit a paltry .245, but provided 20 HRs and 84 RBIs in 575 PAs. Meanwhile, JMJ hit .273 with 15 HRs and 49 RBIs in just 296 PAs. Mayberry hit 75% as many HRs as Ibanez in just over half the plate appearances, and with a higher batting average to boot. With the team in dire need of power this season with the aforementioned injuries to Howard and Utley, Mayberry provides the team with the ability to hit for power as well as retain good contact skills leading to a higher batting average. Although Mayberry isn’t a great fielder, he’s fast, lanky, and definitely an upgrade over Ibanez. While Ibanez had a good arm, his range in LF was atrocious. Mayberry played well last season in limited playing time, and one could argue that he was better than Ibanez. The Phillies let Ibanez walk in free agency for a reason. Mayberry will have a breakout season for the Phils this year. I’m predicting a .270 batting average with 25 HRs and 85 RBIs in 500 PAs for JMJ this year.
3. Will Vance Worley continue pitching at the level he did at the end of 2011?
Stephane: The answer to this question is no. While I still think Vance Worley will pitch well this season, it’s unrealistic to expect him to pitch at the level he did last year, when he went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA over the course of a full season. His fielding-independent pitching (FIP) stats suggested a 3.32 ERA for the year, and his xFIP, which projects the next season’s ERA, was 3.66. I think we’ll see something like a 15-8 record with a 3.45 ERA. He’ll still be above-average, especially for a 4th starter, but to expect him to repeat last year’s performance, when he got somewhat lucking with fielding and opponents’ batting average on balls in play, is unrealistic.
Tyler: I like this guy a lot. I’d love to say that he continues his dominance from 2011, but I don’t think he will. I feel that batters will have a good scouting report on him and will know how to hit him. Hopefully Worley will be the kind of player that can overcome that adversity and will be able to dominate even though there is now an extensive scouting report on him. I don’t think Worley will be terrible. He will win a good amount of games. Of course his success will be dwarfed but the success that the top three aces of the rotation will have. Last year he got 11 wins. I expect him to get the same amount, but throughout the entire season.
4. Who will be the reserve player that makes the biggest impact this season?
Tyler: I’m predicting Freddy Galvis. Ty Wigginton would be my second player. I’m saying Galvis because I feel Utley will be out for an extensive amount of time. Galvis will have to perform well in order to have the Phillies win ball games. This prediction could be more of a wishful one as we all know that he needs to play well, but I think he steps ups and gets the job done. There aren’t any stats to add as Galvis is a young player, but I think he can do it. Wigginton will have a great season, but he won’t have to do as much as Galvis.
Stephane: I’m going to say Ty Wigginton. He can play 1st base and 3rd base, and can fill in at 2nd in case of an emergency. With this versatility, combined with the injuries to Howard and Utley to start the year and Polanco’s propensity to spend time on the DL, I think Wigginton will see a lot of playing time this year. He provides a right-handed power bat (along with below-average defense). I think he’ll be a poor man’s Ryan Howard off the bench for the Phillies, providing pop at multiple positions where the Phillies will have a need for hitting.
5. Which player on the 25-man roster will be the biggest disappointment this season?
Stephane: Without a doubt, Juan Pierre. Despite having over 700 PAs each of the last 2 seasons, he’s scored less than 100 runs each season and has hit a combined 3 HRs in each of those 2 years. He was the league leader in caught stealing each of the last 2 seasons, and for his career, while leading the league in SBs 3 times, he’s led it in CS 7 times. He’s a slap hitter who has a noodle for an arm and isn’t much better in the outfield than Raul Ibanez was. Last season, he stole 27 bases but was caught a whopping 17 times. Quite frankly, Pierre is a declining player who isn’t above-average in any facet of the game anymore. I think the Phillies would have been better served by keeping Dom Brown with the major league club rather than bringing Pierre in, as his speed has become greatly overrated this season.
Tyler: The biggest disappointment would be Juan Pierre. I was scratching my head a little bit when I heard that they signed him to a minor league deal. I was flabbergasted when I heard that he had made the 25-man roster. Pierre still has the skills to be on a major league ball club, but not one that is a perennial playoff powerhouse. Pierre is just like Dom Brown, but Brown is underdeveloped yet. Last year he stole 27 bases, but was caught 17 times. I have a feeling that Pierre won’t make the entire season with the Phillies, but if he does he won’t be doing much.
6. Which starting pitcher(s), if any, will win at least 20 games in 2012?
Tyler: I think only Roy Halladay will win 20 games. It will be tough to notch 20 wins as the offense won’t be as potent as seasons past, but I believe Halladay will see the lacking offense and will step up his game. The work-horse will heighten his workload and will try to shut down every line-up he faces. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee will have great seasons, but they won’t be as spectacular as Halladay.
Stephane: I don’t think any of them will win 20+ games this year. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels all failed to reach that lofty plateau last season despite each of them pitching spectacularly. With the offense figuring to struggle this year with the injuries to Utley and Howard, run support will be less plentiful for the starters. While I think Halladay, Lee, and Hamels will all pitch well enough to win 20 games, I don’t think any of them do. I’ll say that Halladay goes 18-9, Lee goes 17-10, and Hamels goes 16-11.
7. Will Dom Brown be called up to the MLB level sometime in 2012 and stay there for the duration of the season?
Stephane: I think he will. As I’ve stated numerous times, the offense is going to be below average this season. There are always injuries, and since I’m aslo on record as saying that Juan Pierre will struggle this season (and I’m not sold on Lance Nix, either), eventually Dom Brown will get his opportunity in the big leagues. Even if it’s in a LF platoon with JMJ, I say Brown gets called up to the big club at some point relatively early in the year and he’ll play well enough to keep his spot for the rest of the year.
Tyler: I think Dom Brown will stay down in AAA until September call-ups. I think GM Ruben Amar Jr. realizes he made a mistake by rushing Brown to the big leagues. Brown has a lot of maturing to do as a player and needs to spend an entire season down with the recently successful Ironpigs. He needs to stay there for a season, not worry about when he will get called-up. Dom Brown just needs to worry about playing baseball and the promotion will come in due time. Brown needs to have a successful 2012 more than anyone else in the Phillies farm system. That is why he will stay there for the regular season.
8. Which position in the starting line-up will be the most productive in 2012?
Tyler:It has to be right field with Hunter Pence. Pence provided a great spark last season after the Phillies acquired him in the middle of
the season. Having Pence for the entire season will work wonders. Pence has a great work ethic and is not a selfish guy. He is just a hard-nosed baseball player that will do whatever it takes to win the game. Pence will easily knock in 100 RBIs, which he has never done in his career. Pence will be the key to the line-up that will see a decrease in production this season.
Stephane: This is between CF and RF, because Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are head and shoulders above every other healthy position player on this team, but I’ll go with RF. Pence is a key to the team’s fortunes, as he’ll be batting 4th for the majority for the first half of the season and will then move to 3rd or 5th. With all the at bats he’ll get in the middle of the lineup, he figures to lead the team in RBIs, and with his good contact skills I see him leading the team in batting average as well. Victorino figures to bounce around the lineup, as he could bat anywhere from 1st to 6th, so he might struggle to find his stroke. Pence is a complete 5-tool player: he can hit for average and power, steal bases, field his RF position well and has a very good arm. Pence will provide these excellent tools with his durability to make RF the most productive position in the lineup in 2012.
9. How do you think Jonathan Papelbon will affect the end of games and the bullpen for the Phillies in general?
Stephane: I think Papelbon will pitch very well as the Philliles’ closer this year. However, I don’t think he’ll be that much of an upgrade over Ryan Madson. Madson had a very good year last year, and Papelbon will do the same this year. I think he could provide the rest of the bullpen with more confidence, as he is a brash and outspoken closer. With the 1-2 combo of Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo, who is coming off a breakout 2011, at the back end of the bullpen, I don’t think the Phillies will have any trouble closing out games in 2012.
Tyler: The Phillies are coming back to having stability at the back end of baseball games. Ryan Madson did a decent job last year, but I don’t like not having a solid closer that you can count on to shut down hitters. Papelbon won’t bring the security that the Phillies fans got back in 2008 when Brad Lidge never blew a save, but Papelbon will have a great season.
10. How many wins will the Phillies notch in 2012 and how will their season end?
Tyler: Now it is time to get realistic. Everyone knows that this season doesn’t look as promising as previous ones. The absence of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley is huge. There are a lot of questions surrounding this ball club. It is risky business having your success hinge on an inexperienced infielder. The safest bet to make is that the Phillies will not win 100 games this season. I believe the Phillies will win 89 games this season. That number will be enough to win the NL East once again. It will be a close race as the Marlins will be tough along with the usual push from the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies will win in the divisional series regardless of who they play. They will lose in the NLCS though. Deep in October teams need constant offense and great pitching. The great pitching will be there, but the offense will be inconsistent. Also the lack of leadership in the playoffs will be a bit of a factor. Jimmy Rollins may be the vocal leader, but Utley and Howard led by example and they will be sitting on the bench. This season doesn’t have “high hopes”, but it will be a decent season by MLB standards.
Stephane: If there’s one thing I’m sure of about the upcoming season, it’s that the Phillies won’t top the century mark like they did last season. While the starting pitching is going to be excellent, just like last year, the offense won’t be the same. The offense’s decline combined with the radical improvement of the Miami Marlins (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, a healthy Josh Johnson, Heath Bell) and the Washington Nationals (a healthy Stephen Strasburg, Edwin Jackson, Gio Gonzalez, Bryce Harper), along with the always-threatening Atlanta Braves, the NL East will be tough sledding this season. I’ll say the Phillies win 91 games this season and take home their 6th straight NL East crown, although it will be much closer this year then it has been in recent years. Once they get to the postseason, anything can happen. They certainly have the pitching to match up with any team in the league, but in their last 2 postseason series’ (2010 NLCS vs. Giants, 2011 NLDS vs. Cardinals) the bats have fallen silent. I expect that to happen again this year, as the lack of consistent contact hitters in the lineup will doom the Phillies again this year. I see the Phillies bowing out in the NLDS again in 2012, although I hope I’m wrong.
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