10 Bold Predictions for the 2012 Phillies Season

For the record, I may not expect that all of these will 100% come true, but I believe everything I say in this column has a good chance of occurring. After all, what fun are bold predictions if they aren’t a little risky? Here are 10 bold predictions I have for the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies season, as well as my predictions for the 2012 MLB season.

1. The Phillies will win their 6th straight NL East title, but it will be close
The Phillies simply have too much pitching not to win the East. Any time Vance Worley is your 4th starter, Joe Blanton is your 5th, and Kyle Kendrick is a long reliever, it’s going to be tough to score runs against you. However, the Phillies will also struggle to score runs, and that’s what’s going to allow the Marlins, Nationals, and Braves (yes, in that order) to hang around with the Phillies. I say the Phillies barely crack 90 wins and finish 91-71 (as opposed to 102-60 last year) and hold off the Marlins by 2 games. The Marlins, Nationals, and Braves will all finish over .500, however, and the division race will be closer than it has been in recent years.

2. Hunter Pence will have a career year
I’m talking somewhere in the neighborhood of a .315 batting average, 35 HRs, 100 RBIs, an all-star starter, and a top-10 finish in the NL MVP voting. While this might be wildly optimistic, I like his aggressive approach at the plate and he’s going to have a lot of RBI opportunities as the primary hitter in the middle of the lineup for much of the season.

3. 4 Phillies pitchers will make the All-Star game, but none will win the Cy Young award
I’ll say that Halladay, Lee, and Hamels all make the all-star game as starters, and Jonathan Papelbon makes it as a reliever. Halladay and Lee are as consistent as they come, and Hamels will repeat his stellar season from last year. Papelbon will dominate in the NL East (his interleague pitching numbers were even better than his already-stellar AL East stats) and make the all-star team as the primary relief pitcher. While the Phillies would seem to have 3 of the top 5 starting pitchers in the NL in Halladay, Lee, and Hamels, I think that the Cy Young award will come from outside Philadelphia this year. While it wouldn’t surprise me if Halladay or Lee won the award (because they’re the 2 best pitchers in the NL), I think that they will end up being out-pitched by my pick for the award, who comes from the NL West (and no, it isn’t Clayton Kershaw or Tim Lincecum).

4. Ty Wigginton will be the best bench player
I’m going to call the “starters” Ruiz-Howard-Utley-Rollins-Polanco-JMJ-Victorino-Pence for the purposes of this prediction, so that means I believe Wigginton will be better than Schneider, Galvis, Nix, Pierre, Thome, Orr, and anyone else (Michael Martinez, Dom Brown) that might come off the bench this season. While he’s not a very good defensive player, Wigginton can hit for power. I see him hitting 15+ HRs this season while playing 1st and 3rd base pretty regularly as a replacement for the currently injured Ryan Howard and the oft-injured Placido Polanco.

5. Joe Blanton will not finish the season in Philadelphia
Blanton is due to make $8.5M this season, and the Phillies have a capable replacement for Blanton’s spot in the rotation in Kyle Kendrick. Blanton drew interest in spring training from other teams, most notably from the Toronto Blue Jays. If the Phillies want payroll flexibility to make a move at the trade deadline (which Reuben Amaro, Jr. loves to do), they will need to move Blanton. If he pitches at a decent level the first half of the season and the Phillies agree to eat some of his salary, Blanton will be moved at the deadline and Kyle Kendrick will slide into the rotation.

6. Freddy Galvis will play 100+ games this season and finish in the top-15 of the NL Rookie of the Year voting.

While I’m not sold on Galvis quite yet, three things became clear during spring training: He will get a lot of playing time at 2nd base, he is an excellent fielder, and he’s a better hitter than anticipated. There’s no timetable for Utley’s return, Wilson Valdez is no longer on the team, and Michael Martinez has a broken foot. Galvis will get plenty of playing time at 2nd base, and with the ever-present threat of a Jimmy Rollins injury, he could also see time at short. He’s excellent with the glove at both spots, and he showed some surprising power to the gap in spring training, hitting .280. While he still needs to work on plate discipline and he isn’t a threat to hit many home runs, in a weak class of NL rookies this year I expect him to play excellent defense, hit .275, and finish in the top 15 of the NL’s ROY voting.

7. John Mayberry, Jr. will stake a claim to the LF job for the foreseeable future
JMJ will open the season spending the majority of his playing time at first base while Ryan Howard is out. But, with him most likely spending the majority of his time in the 5-hole behind Hunter Pence (I see the two possible lineups for the beginning of the year as Pierre-Polanco-Rollins-Mayberry-Victorino-Ruiz-Galvis or Victorino-Polanco-Rollins-Pence-Mayberry-Wigginton-Ruiz-Galvis), I see him getting off to an excellent start and forcing the Phillies to keep him in the lineup in LF after Howard returns, even against right-handed pitchers. I see him hitting .260 with 25+ HRs and 75+ RBIs, leading to the Phillies deciding that Mayberry-Victorino-Pence are their outfield of the future. This development leads to…

8. Dom Brown will be traded at the deadline
Truth be told, I’m hedging my bets on this one. Either Brown dominates competition at AAA and gets called up to the big leagues where he continues to play well, or he struggles as he bounces between AAA and the MLB this year. I wouldn’t be surprised with either outcome, but I really don’t see it any other way. This is a make-or-break year for Brown with the Phillies. With Shane Victorino set to hit free agency next year, the Phillies need to decide whether they can live with an outfield of Brown-Mayberry-Pence for the future or if they will bring back Victorino. If they bring back Victorino, it would seem that one of Mayberry or Brown won’t be with the team next year as they’ll choose their LF of the future. Look, Brown isn’t a wunderkind prospect anymore. He’s 24. He’s been “one year away” for a few years now. The possibility that he doesn’t pan out is a real possibility If Mayberry comes out on fire to start the season (which I see happening) and the Phillies want to make a splash at the deadline (David Wright?), they’d be wise to move Brown while he still has trade value.

9. The Phillies will get off to a better-than-expected start with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard on the DL to start the season, and no set timetable for either to return, the consensus seems to be that the Phillies will start slowly and come-from-behind when Utley and Howard return. I disagree. I think that the Phillies will be in first place for the majority of April and May, and will be in 1st at both Memorial Day and the All-Star Break. Simply put, I think the starting pitching will rise to the occasion and dominate opponents, and the offense will score just enough to win games. The days of 2006-2008 where balls were flying out of Citizens Bank Park are long gone, but I think the offense will do enough to allow the Phillies to get off to a good start and hold first place for the majority of the first half of the season. But…

10. The Phillies will lose in the NLDS again
I don’t know what it is about October, but the Phillies’ bats fall silent. The last 2 years, their exit can be directly tied to the offense coming up small when it matters most. In elimination games in the 2010 NLCS and the 2011 NLDS, the Phillies tallied just 2 runs. The pitching has been stellar, but the offense simply can’t string hits together. The Phillies don’t have many high-average hitters in the lineup, and they seem to all slump at the same time in the postseason. With the team’s fortunes in the postseason trending downward (WS champs, NL champs, lost in NLCS, lost in NLDS) and the offense getting worse this season, I have no reason to believe they will reverse the trend and win another World Series this year. I think the formula that has beaten them the last 2 postseasons will beat them again this year: their opponents will pitch them to a relative draw, and they will get more timely hits and score more runs than the Phillies. Sound familiar?

For the record, here are my postseason picks and award choices for the AL and NL this year:
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Diamondbacks
NL Wild Cards: Marlins, Giants
NL MVP: Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
NL Cy Young: Matt Cain, Giants
NL Rookie of the Year: Trevor Bauer, Diamondbacks
AL East: Rays
AL Central: Tigers
AL West: Angels
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Rangers
AL MVP: Evan Longoria, Rays
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver, Angels
AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Moore, Rays
Wild Card Round: Giants over Marlins, Rangers over Yankees
Divisional Round: Diamondbacks over Phillies, Giants over Cardinals, Rays over Rangers, Angels over Tigers
Championship Series: Diamondbacks over Giants, Rays over Angels
World Series: Rays over Diamondbacks

SOUND OFF!!! Comment below and tell us what you think of the 2012 Phillies and how you predict the 2012 season will finish!!