The Steven Stamkos Sweepstakes: Can the Philadelphia Flyers Compete?

After turning over nearly half of their roster from the 2010-2011 season, the Philadelphia Flyers may still not be done.

With restricted free agent Steven Stamkos still unsigned in Tampa Bay, the rumor mill has kicked into high gear. Speculation that Stamkos may not want to play in Tampa long-term is rampant in every city claiming to be a potential suitor.

Questions about the Lightning’s financial situation only add fuel to the fire. And the silence from both Tampa Bay GM Steve Yzerman and the Stamkos camp is taken by many as a silent affirmation of all that we have been reading during these past weeks.

Flyers Chairman Ed Snider has made it clear that he would love to see the 21-year-old Richard Trophy winner in orange and black on October 6, when the Flyers host the Stanley Cup Champion Bruins.

Nothing says, “Bring it on” quite like the acquisition of a top-5 player in the NHL, a kid who has scored 96 goals and 186 points over the past two seasons.

Did I mention he’s only 21?

But what would Stamkos’ acquisition cost the Flyers?

The rumors currently have the market value for Stamkos pegged at Brayden Schenn, Sergei Bobrovsky (you didn’t think Dwayne Roloson was going to play forever, did you?), and some first round picks (probably 2012 and 2013). In addition to that hefty price tag, the Flyers would likely need to clear one more significant salary (Matt Carle or Scott Hartnell) in order to fill out the roster and remain cap-compliant.

As far as a new contract goes, Stamkos is likely to command one with an average annual value between $7-$8M. The Flyers will undoubtedly want to see him signed long-term to ensure that they didn’t give away the farm only for Stamkos to waive good-bye when he’s eligible for unrestricted free agency in four years.

That would not be good for Paul Holmgren and Co. A 10-year pact worth about $73.5M should get the job done, provided things like a massive signing bonus for next year are included (Stamkos is going to want to be paid, even if he’s locked out).

Any way you slice it, the price for Steven Stamkos isn’t going to be cheap. That was never really in doubt. The question that’s probably keeping Paul Holmgren up at night is: will he be worth it?

On one hand, the Flyers have the opportunity to acquire one of the 5 or 10 best players in the league well before he hits his prime. While it may seem that he’s been around forever, Stamkos was drafted in 2008. He’s only been legally able to drink in the US for five months, and he’s already made a couple All-Star appearances, won the “Rocket” Richard trophy, been a serious contender (but not a finalist) for the Hart Trophy, and came within 17 points of the Art Ross Trophy — twice.

Not a bad resume for a third-year player.

I’m sure Flyers head coach Peter Laviolette would be salivating if given the opportunity to put out a top line of James van Reimsdyk, Claude Giroux, and Steven Stamkos. Opposing coaches might be drooling for other reasons. Needless to say, Jeff Carter’s scoring would no longer be missed.

On the other hand, Brayden Schenn projects as an elite player at the NHL level. He’s got boatloads of offensive upside, he plays a very solid two-way game, and he’s only 19. The kid has the whole package: skill, toughness, grit, passion—everything Philadelphia fans love to see in their athletes, Schenn has in spades. Scouts have been comparing the kid to the likes of Jonathan Toews and Mike Richards for a reason: he is going to be a star in the NHL for a long time.

The same is true of Bobrovsky. While he may not have had the best playoff performances in 2010-2011, he certainly was a big reason why the Flyers won the Atlantic. His stellar play down the stretch while the rest of the team was off in la-la land helped avoid complete collapse.

Despite the setbacks, Bobrovsky’s potential is still nearly limitless. In terms of raw ability, he’s a coach’s dream. He may be the quickest netminder in the entire NHL. He has reflexes that most goaltenders only dream of possessing. He has size. He already has the ability to deal with pressure and expectation. He’s the real deal. And he’s only played North American hockey for one year. There is nowhere to go but up for the kid.

In any trade for Stamkos, the Flyers would be giving up those two young prospects. Both have the potential to be elite players in the NHL for the next 1o or 15 years. Add onto that two more first-round draft selections, and the Flyers may well have single-handedly given Tampa Bay the pieces it needs to deal with life after St. Louis and Lecavalier.

This trade could go down as the Lindros deal, version 2.0. Or it could go down as one of the greatest steals in history. I could be wrong, Schenn could be a bust, Bobrovsky’s 2010-2012 an aberration. Stamkos could go on to average 50+ goals for the next decade, firmly establishing himself as one of the best players of his generation and Paul Holmgren and the Philadelphia Flyers would look like geniuses.

As for me, I’d roll the dice. As a GM, if the opportunity to acquire a player like Stamkos presents itself, it is a once-in-a-career chance to make a splash. Take the plunge. If nothing else, no one can say you didn’t have the courage to pull the trigger.