April 27, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber (6) reacts in game one of the 2012 Western Conference semifinals at Jobing.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

Where do the Flyers go from here? It’s tough to say. Shea Weber was what the Flyers needed. A big, tough, physical, nasty defenseman who could both shut down opposing scoring lines and score goals himself, something the Flyers have lacked since Chris Pronger tragically suffered what looks to be a career-ending concussion early last season. Acquiring him would have been like acquiring Chris Pronger in his prime. And now he’s gone. Nashville somehow came up with the money to match. Whether it was a yard sale, lemonade stand, looking under couch cushions, or taking out a second mortgage on the house, they managed to get it done. There’s no defenseman on the market who is even close to Weber’s caliber. It looks as if the defensive corps going into next season will be Braydon Coburn, Kimmo Timonen, Nicklas Grossmann, Luke Schenn, Andrej Meszaros, and some combination of Marc-Andre Bourdon, Erik Gustafsson, Bruno Gervais, and Andreas Lilja. In front of Ilya Bryzgalov, that simply doesn’t look like a Cup-winning (or even Cup-contending) defense. It’s got many solid players and has good depth, but no #1 star. Timonen is an excellent puck-mover, but he’s not in Weber’s neighborhood defensively.

The offense still looks very solid, and now that #WeberWatch is over, look for the Flyers to agree on a contract extension for RFA Jakub Voracek. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-4 years with an average annual value of $3-4M. Paul Holmgren surely can’t be content with how his team looks now, however. He’s currently looking at a team that lost in 5 games in the 2nd round of the playoffs that lost its top-line RW (Jagr), promising top-6 LW (van Riemsdyk), and 2nd-best defenseman (Carle). In return, the team added a young defenseman with lots of question markes (Luke Schenn), a bottom-6 forward (Ruslan Fedotenko), and a 6th or 7th defenseman (Bruno Gervais). To be blunt, that offseason is horrendous. As of now, here’s how the roster shakes out for next season:

Hartnell-Giroux-Voracek

Simmonds-Briere-Schenn

Read-Couturier-Fedotenko

Wellwood-Talbot-Rinaldo/Sestito

Coburn-Grossmann

Timonen-Schenn

Meszaros-Bourdon/Gustafsson/Gervais/Lilja

Bryzgalov

Leighton

That team does not look like a Cup contender to me. Especially not with the Rangers owning the Flyers last year and dramatically improving themselves yesterday by trading for Rick Nash. Especially not with the Penguins still boasting an offense with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, and Chris Kunitz. Especially not with the 2010 Cup champion Boston Bruins ridding themselves of the Tim Thomas distraction and welcoming back 2010 playoff hero Nathan Horton from a concussion. Especially not with the Ottawa Senators on the rise with a young core of talent led by Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson. I’d mention the Western Conference teams like the offensively-explosive Vancouver Canucks, defensively-dominant St. Louis Blues, and defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings, but the Flyers won’t get anywhere near the Stanley Cup finals with this roster.

May 8, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers players Philadelphia Flyers center Maxime Talbot (27), right wing Wayne Simmonds (17), center Brayden Schenn (10) and right wing Matt Read (24) sit on the bench after they lost to the New Jersey Devils in game five of the 2012 Eastern Conference semifinals at the Wells Fargo Center. The Devils defeated the Flyers 3-1, to win the series 4 games to one. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-US PRESSWIRE

What can Paul Holmgren do? He could try extending an offer sheet to Montreal’s PK Subban. He’d be an excellent addition to the defense. But Montreal would seem to be able to easily match the offer with their massive fan base and revenue. He could try to bolster the offense with an offer sheet to Winnipeg’s Evander Kane or Dallas’ Jamie Benn. But both of those would be unlikely to succeed. He could try to trade for a defenseman like Calgary’s Jay Bouwmeester or Phoenix’s Keith Yandle, but Bouwmeester is overpaid (a $6.6M cap hit) and not particularly productive and Phoenix’s asking price for Yandle is astronomical. Besides, both of them are offensively-minded (Yandle especially), which wouldn’t fill Flyers’ main need on the blueline. He could wait until the 2013 offseason and add a defenseman in free agency. Of course, the only marquee defenseman in that class (Shea Weber) is no longer going to be a free agent. And Kimmo Timonen is an unrestricted free agent then, too, who will most likely retire. So, barring a minor miracle, the Flyers will go into the 2013 season without their top 3 defensemen (Pronger, Timonen, Carle) from the beginning of the 2012 season. Oh joy.

Feb 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Montreal Canadiens defenseman PK Subban (76) retrieves the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. The Canadiens beat the Maple Leafs 5-0. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

There are two marquee players still available in free agency as of now: Shane Doan and Alexander Semin. Doan has been with the Coyotes’ franchise since they were still the Winnipeg Jets, but the unstable ownership situation has him testing the free agent market. He visited with the Flyers yesterday, and would add roughly 20 goals and 50 points to the Flyers’ offense, along with hard-nosed, physical play and leadership. Semin, meanwhile, is known as a lazy player who doesn’t work hard, but there’s no denying his offensive talent (40 goals in 2009-2010), and he’s got a wrist shot that was crafted by God himself. A relatively short deal (2 years is ideal for me) would keep him motivated, and there’s no doubt that he’d be very productive on a line with Claude Giroux. With the Flyers currently boasting roughly $7.81M  in cap space for next season in addition to having Chris Pronger’s $4.92M able to be put on long-term injured reserve (and thus taken off the salary cap) if they need it, they’ve got enough money to add one of these players, and potentially both. However, I’d rather not overbid for them, especially not Doan because of his age. Doan is 36 years old, and under the NHL’s current CBA, contracts signed when the player is 35 or older count against the cap until they expire, even if the player retires or cannot play due to injury. That’s the issue the Flyers currently have with Chris Pronger, and that’s why he hasn’t retired yet: because putting him on long-term injured reserve at the start of every season frees up cap space for in-season moves by the team.

May 20, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Phoenix Coyotes right wing Shane Doan (19) winds up to take a shot against the defense of Los Angeles Kings defenseman Willie Mitchell (33) during the first period of game four of the Western Conference Finals of the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

A final option for the Flyers would be to re-kindle trade talks with the Anaheim Ducks for RW Bobby Ryan. I’d love to see Ryan wearing the orange and black, but only for the right price. Andrej Meszaros and a 1st round pick sounds awesome to me. Meszaros, a 1st, and a 2nd? I’d still do it. But if this turns into Meszaros and Matt Read plus picks or Meszaros and Voracek, I’m not sure that I’m on board. Ryan is a very good player, but sacrificing quality players and quality depth for someone who doesn’t fill the Flyers’ biggest area of need doesn’t thrill me. I would not be surprised if Ryan ends up with the Flyers next season. I also would not be surprised if Holmgren overpaid for him. Homer loves to make bold moves, and he could feel pressured into overpaying for Ryan after striking out on Zach Parise and Ryan Suter in unrestricted free agency, having Shea Weber slip through his grasp in restricted free agency, and watching the Rangers acquire Rick Nash. The “keeping up with the Jones’s” effect is a real thing, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Homer fall victim to it.

March 12 2012; Denver, CO, USA; Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin (23) reacts to his goal and the assist by left wing Bobby Ryan (9) against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period of the game at the Pepsi Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-US PRESSWIRE

If I was running the Flyers? I’d lock up contracts with RFAs Jakub Voracek and Marc-Andre Bourdon, then work on contract extensions with Claude Giroux and Scott Hartnell. I’d make offers to Shane Doan and Alexander Semin: 3 years, $12M to Doan, 2 years, $11M to Semin. If neither one of them signed (or even if one of them did), I’d make an offer to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan: Andrej Meszaros, a 2013 1st round pick, and a conditional pick depending on how Ryan and the Flyers perform this season. I’d kick the tires on Jay Bouwmeester and Keith Yandle. It can’t hurt to see what the market is, right? Hell, I might even try to get PK Subban to sign an offer sheet. It can only turn out positively for the Flyers. Either Montreal matches and the status quo is kept or they don’t and the Flyers get Subban. There’s no downside there. Just disappointment. There are a lot of different ways the rest of the Flyers offseason could go from here, but none of them are as good as signing Shea Weber would have been. The Flyers went from a potential Stanley Cup favorite to a team that doesn’t have the look of a Cup contender. Let’s all just hope that Chris Pronger’s concussion magically heals itself. Sure, that would be something of a divine intervention, but that’s what Nashville’s owners (and more specifically, their checkbooks) seemed to get this afternoon.

March 19, 2012; Detroit, MI, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Alexander Semin (28) skates with the puck as Detroit Red Wings center Henrik Zetterberg (40) defends at Joe Louis Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

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May 7, 2012; Glendale, AZ, USA; Phoenix Coyotes center Antoine Vermette (50) and Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber (6) battle for the puck during the second period in game five of the 2012 Western Conference semifinals at Jobing.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-US PRESSWIRE

See, in hockey, offer sheets are extremely uncommon. There have only been seven players (including Weber) who have signed offer sheets under the new CBA. It’s partly due to the new CBA (compensation is steep-more on that later) and partly because there’s something of a gentlemen’s agreement between NHL GM’s that offer sheets just don’t happen. In fact, many GM’s take it extremely personally when one of their players is signed to an offer-sheet by another GM. In 2007, when Dustin Penner, then an Anaheim Duck, signed a 5 year, $21.25M offer sheet with the Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim GM Brian Burke was reportedly so incensed that Edmonton GM Kevin Lowe (who was a good friend of his at the time) would sign Penner to an offer sheet (the Ducks were coming off a Stanley Cup victory and were pressed against the salary cap) that he reportedly tried to rent a barn in Lake Placid to fight Lowe in before being told off by commissioner Gary Bettman.

Nashville GM David Poile has always had a good relationship with Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgren and the Flyers in general. The reality of the situation is that Nashville is one of the smaller markets in the NHL, and they can’t often afford to keep their players when they hit unrestricted free agency (ex: Ryan Suter). Poile knows this, and he has teamed up with the Flyers before to get some sort of value for these players. Most notably, he acquired Peter Forsberg from the Flyers at the 2007 trade deadline and sent d the rights to unrestricted free agents Kimmo Timonen and Scott Hartnell to the Flyers for a 1st round pick later that year. If Poile didn’t think he could keep Weber monetarily, it would make sense to work out a trade for one of the top 3 defensemen in the league rather than lose him for peanuts, which could happen now. The Flyers, with their solid relationship with Nashville (though perhaps not for long) and their need for a top defenseman, would seem to be a good fit. Dreger also reported that the Flyers had been trying to negotiate a trade with Nashville for some time, but they grew frustrated with the lack of progression in the talks and got fed up, signing Weber to the massive deal. But an offer sheet, if successful, is infinitely better than a trade. For a player of Weber’s caliber, the Flyers would have likely had to give up something akin to Sean Couturier or Brayden Schenn (and with Luke Schenn now in Philadelphia, it was probably going to be Cooters), Jakub Voracek and/or Matt Read, Andrej Meszaros or Brayden Coburn, and a 1st round pick or two.  Perhaps more. A steep price to pay for Weber, blowing up the team’s young core just a season after acquiring it.

Jan 28, 2012; Ottawa, ON, CANADA; Team Alfredsson defenseman Shea Weber (6) of the Nashville Predators in the hardest shot challenge of the 2012 All Star skills competition at Scotiabank Place. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-US PRESSWIRE

Nashville has two choices here: match the Flyers’ offer sheet (and pay Weber $100+M over the next 14 years), or allow him to go to the Flyers and recieve 4 1st round picks as compensation. I know what you’re thinking: “CAN the Predators afford to match Weber?”. The answer is yes, at least under the salary cap. The Predators have the least amount of money committed to the $70.2M salary cap next year at just over $40.85M, per Capgeek. However, the team may not be able to afford the deal in terms of real dollars. Nick Kypreos reports that the deal is structured so Weber receives $1M of salary and $13M in signing bonuses each of the first 4 years of the deal, followed by $4M in salary and $8M in signing bonuses in years 5 and 6, followed by $6M in salary in years 7-10, $3M in salary in year 11, and $1M in salary in years 12-14, totaling $110M over the next 14 years. That means that, since signing bonuses are usually paid out prior to July 1st, the Predators would need to pay Weber $56M between now and July 1st, 2015. Fifty-six million dollars. And that means that the Predators would have to pay Shea Weber $27M in the next 347 days. Twenty-seven million dollars. In less than a calender year. That’s Dr. Evil money right there. Can Nashville afford that?

I know the Flyers can. The Flyers are owned by Comcast, and Comcast is made of $$$. And it makes sense for Ed Snider. He’s 79 years old. He doesn’t care about money anymore. All he wants is another Stanley Cup win for his Philadelphia Flyers, his baby, his pride and joy. In 2006, the Flyers signed Vancouver’s Ryan Kesler, then an unproven young player who is now a supremely talented two-way forward to a 1-year, $1.9M offer sheet. Vancouver matched, and afterwards the Flyers were quoted as saying that their “only regret was not thinking to make the offer hard to match”. They certainly did that this time. Nashville’s franchise was valued at $163M in 2011 according to Forbes. Can they really afford to pay one player, regardless of how talented he is, $26M in one calender year? However, Nashville is on record as saying that they’d match any offer sheet to Weber. Now it’s time to put their money where their mouth is. However, I can’t see Nashville not matching this offer sheet. They’ve told their fans that they’re willing to spend the $ to be a consistent Cup contender, that things are different now. They’ve said that the days of Thomas Vokoun, Dan Hamhuis, Peter Forsberg, Scott Hartnell, Kimmo Timonen, and the like leaving in free agency are gone. That they’ll spend as much money as is necessary, like the big boys of the hockey world. That they won’t be a farm system for the Philadelphia Flyers and the New York Rangers and the Detroit Red Wings any longer. And yet, how can you say those things and then let Ryan Suter and Shea Weber depart in free agency in the same offseason? If the Nashville Predators DON’T match this offer sheet, I’m not sure how they can look their fans in the eye. But how will things shake out? I’d put it at a 75% chance that Nashville matches it, 25% that they don’t. Here’s what the offer sheet’s fallout could look like as a result of both courses of action:

April 11, 2012; Nashville, TN, USA; Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber (6) checks Detroit Red Wings left wing Tomas Holmstrom (96) into the boards during the first period in game one of the 2012 Western Conference quarterfinals at Bridgestone Arena. The Predators beat the Red Wings 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Don McPeak-US PRESSWIRE

If the Predators match the offer sheet:

The Flyers will be sorely disappointed, but they’ll likely turn their attention to contract extensions with restricted free agents Jakub Voracek and Marc-Andre Bourdon, and will perhaps get themselves back into the Bobby Ryan and Rick Nash sweepstakes. They will maintain room under the salary cap for potential in-season trades, and leave themselves oodles of cap room and flexibility for the 2013 free agency period (almost $8M in cap space now, with Kimmo Timonen’s $6.33M cap hit and Scott Hartnell’s $4.2M cap hit set to expire, among others). They’d likely use the money to sign Claude Giroux to a massive extension to keep him away from his own restricted free agency in 2014 and to give Scott Hartnell a contract extension. With a new CBA pending, who knows what the future salary cap might look like? The Flyers would maintain flexibility no matter what the new cap situation looks like.

If the Predators do not match the offer sheet:

The Flyers instantly become a Stanley Cup favorite. They’ll be right up against the current salary cap, but with Chris Pronger’s contract being able to be put on long-term injured reserve, they’ll probably be able to get enough salary cap relief to get creative and fit everyone under the cap. In order to sign Jakub Voracek to a contract extension and stay under the cap, the Flyers would likely try to trade Andrej Meszaros or Braydon Coburn (with Meszaros being far more likely to move). If neither is traded and Voracek is simply tendered his qualifying offer and no one offer-sheets him, the defense goes from a potential question mark to one of the best in the league next season. The roster next year in that scenario would likely look something like this:

Hartnell-Giroux-Voracek

Simmonds-Briere-Read

Schenn-Couturier-Fedotenko

Wellwood-Talbot-Sestito/Rinaldo

Weber-Timonen

Coburn-Grossmann

Schenn-Meszaros

Bryzgalov

Leighton

Looks pretty good, no? If Coburn/Meszaros is traded, newly signed Bruno Gervais, Marc-Andre Bourdon, Erik Gustafsson, and Andreas Lilja are all waiting in the wings to fill in as the 6th defenseman. This team is a Cup contender this season with Weber, and with Timonen’s large contract expiring after the season, they’ll still have roster flexibility past this season. If Nashville doesn’t match, it’s a great time to be a Flyers fan.

P.S.-it’s nothing we didn’t already know before, but this offer sheet definitely means that Chris Pronger’s career is over. They wouldn’t be throwing $110M at the best comparison to a young Chris Pronger if the old one was ever going to play again.

Today, the Phillies took care of another possible arbitration issue by signing Cole Hamels to a 1-year, $15 million deal. Hamels was not eligible immediately for free agency, but he was definitely a top priority for the organization and they wanted to let him know that. The Phillies lock up their young, left-handed superstar for another year, and Hamels garners the highest pitcher’s salary ever in a non-free agency, arbitration situation.

The deal is both good and bad for Phillies fans. On the bright side, they lock up Cole Hamels for another year and avoid a free agency situation. On the other side however, the length of the deal should be worrisome. The organization was reportedly discussing a long-term deal with Hamels during the off-season, but apparently a deal couldn’t be reached. The 1-year deal could signify that a long-term deal was harder to agree too than originally predicted. Hamels and his wife have been a staple in the community for the duration of his career, and it would be hard to believe Cole wanting out of Philadelphia after he has spent his whole career here. However, a superb left-handed talent will definitely garner some big money in the free agent market, just as Cliff Lee did a year ago. Some good news though, Cole’s agent, John Boggs, has told the media that the 1-year deal is just a precaution to give them the time to discuss a multi-year deal.

Hamels only seems to be developing and improving each year as a pitcher. Last year in 32 appearances he went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 194 strikeouts. He has sustained a winning record over the course of his career with a 74-54 record and a 3.39 ERA. He is no doubt a vital part to the Phillies’ future and should be a pressing concern as the season progresses. An early deal with Hamels would allow the Phillies to allocate the remaining funds to fill holes in the lineup and sure up their future, so the sooner the better.

Last year, Hamels was voted to his second career All-Star game and finished in the top 5 in the Cy Young vote. Cole definitely has some more hardware coming his way over the remainder of his career. Hopefully he’s wearing a Phillies hat when he walks up to claim those future awards.

The Phillies and “utility pitcher” Kyle Kendrick reached a deal today to avoid arbitration. The official press release dubs it a 1-year deal worth just over $3.5 million. With the loss of Madson earlier in the week, this definitely sures up some questions in the bullpen, if that is indeed where we will see Kendrick this season. He will certainly be thrown into the conversation for the fifth spot in the rotation along with Joe Blanton, but Kendrick does have much more bullpen experience.

Last year we saw a few different pitchers thrown into that fifth spot, before Vance Worley really took hold of it. Worley looks to move up into the fourth spot with the departure of Roy Oswalt, which leaves Kendrick and Blanton to battle it out for the last spot. Either way, this adds nice depth to the Phils’ rotation and a good utility or long-relief option down the stretch.

Last year, Kendrick was 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 34 appearances, 15 of them being starts. These numbers don’t blow you away, but he is more than a solid option in the fifth rotation spot or as a long-reliever. He has been particularly impressive in-division against the National League East. Last year 18 appearances versus division foe, he posted a 5-2 record and a 2.14 ERA. Kyle is definitely a good piece to hold onto during the long MLB season, especially with Blanton’s recent injuries and Vance’s youth.

Kendrick is far from the most important player eligible for arbitration, however. Cole Hamels, Hunter Pence, and Wilson Valdez are also facing arbitration this off-season and not much has been said about an impending agreement. It is safe to assume that deals with be reached with Hamels and Pence, but things seem to be up in the air with Valdez. I would like to see them bring Wilson back for another year, at least. He provides a good spark off the bench and came up big in some key situations last year. He provides a more than efficient glove at any infield position and has improved his hitting while a member of the Phillies. We will keep you updated on the Phillies’ busy off-season as it progresses.

Ryan Madson, who has spent the last 8 years of his baseball life with the Philadelphia Phillies, was signed by the Cincinnati Reds late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.  He signs a one-year deal reportedly worth $8.5 million.  He will replace their departed closer, Francisco Cordero, who is also still out on the free agent market.

Madson is 31 years old and had perhaps the best season of his career with the Phillies in 2011.  He took more of a stronghold of the closer role and performed well in some key situations down the stretch for the Phils.  During that “career year”, he went 4-2 with an 2.37 ERA and 32 saves.   Overall, he tallied a 47-30 record with an ERA just over 3.50 as a Phillies pitcher.

This move was more or less expected after the Phils and Madson were unable to reach a deal last fall.  The postseason acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon pretty much put the writing on the wall for Madson.  This only affects the Phillies in the case that Madson would step back into the setup role.  It doesn’t really make much sense to carry two “big money” closers on the staff, so I can’t argue with the decision to sign Papelbon long-term and let Madson walk.  Madson had a great year last year, but his career numbers pale in comparison to Papelbon’s 2.33 ERA and 219 saves.  The Phillies should move on confidently with Papelbon holding up the end of the bullpen in 2012.