Philadelphia Phillies: The Importance of Jeremy Hellickson’s Changeup

You know what every Philadelphia Phillies fan needs? Another article outlining Jeremy Hellickson.

Have no fear because this has nothing to do with if he’s being traded or not. Instead, we’re going to focus on what’s going on behind the scenes with his improvement. Lately, Hellickson has been putting on a clinic on the mound, having pitched to an ERA of 2.20 over his last seven starts spanning 45 innings. Those numbers aren’t a fluke as his fielding independent pitching (FIP or what Hellickson’s ERA would be with average fielders) is  3.27.

These numbers are much better than his season lines of  an ERA of 3.65 and an FIP of 4.17, but why? Strikeout rate is the answer. Hellickson has struck  out 107 batters. Hellickson is also striking 7.7 out batters per nine innings which is his best since 2010.

For a pitcher with an average fastball and cutter Hellickson has had to rely on his off-speed stuff. Hellickson has an above-average curveball but the changeup has become Hellickson’s bread and butter. It has went from an average pitch to an elite pitch over the course of the season causing batters to swing and miss about 60 percent of the time.

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This is important because it has really made Jeremy Hellickson a more reliable pitcher and it’s also a reason why I would like to see the Philadelphia Phillies extend Hellickson rather than trade him. While there’s talk about the Phillies’ crop of young starters with Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez, Jake Thompson and Zach Eflin each of them comes with question marks.

Thompson is talented but unproven. Nola hasn’t been himself since his first nine starts. Velasquez is an injury waiting to happen. Eflin can’t miss bats. Jeremy Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff have been the pictures of consistency this year and it would make a lot of sense for the Philadelphia Phillies to try to sign him to a three-year deal (they have the payroll for it). And if Hellickson has another good season and the young starters show that they’re ready for the bigs, the Philadelphia Phillies could get a lot more than one top prospect in return for Hellickson.

Naysayers may point out that this is unsustainable but if you look at Hellickson’s career he’s always had this potential it just hasn’t materialized in the bigs.  A lot of pitchers are late bloomers, just look at Jake Arrieta, since leaving the Orioles he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball thanks to the cubs and pitching coach, Chris Bosio. Hellickson has also cut down on his walks and is walking two batters per nine innings which is under his career rate of 2.8 batters per nine.

Hellickson also has a great pitching coach behind him in, Bob McClure and the scary thing is there’s room for improvement in Hellickson’s performance. This season Hellickson is getting shelled by left-handers and giving up more homers. Usually, those things would coincide with a downturn in performance but not for Hellickson.

From a Fangraphs article on his performance to date:

"On the one hand, Hellickson’s the same as he’s ever been. He’s still giving up the long ball far too often, he’s still getting killed by lefties — and, even in a career-year, he doesn’t look like much more than a league-average starter. Maybe a bit better than that. On the other, even six years after his top-20 placing on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, there looks to be some potential left still. He’s still got the fascinating curveball that gets more spin than anyone. And now, he’s crafted his change to look like one of the game’s best, which would seem like the key to solving the lefties. It just hasn’t yet been used that way. It sure seems like Jeremy Hellickson could just be one more tweak away. So the story goes."

He’s giving up 1.4 homers per nine innings which is a side effect of calling Citizens Bank Park home. Hellickson is also allowing lefties to bat .255 against him compared to .228 versus right handers. With the improvement of his changeup you’d expect these numbers to even up for Hellickson but they haven’t yet.

Next: Should they Keep Jeremy Hellickson?

Jeremy Hellickson may be in the process of turning a corner for the Philadelphia Phillies. I just hope that he’s still on the team in the future for his improvement to bear fruit.