Philadelphia Phillies are Due for Regression

As shown in the title I am about to write about a topic that Philadelphia Phillies fans don’t want to hear about. However, it needs to be said.

The Philadelphia Phillies are so close to being in first place in the NL East but they will not be able to keep up their current production. They are 14-3 in one-run games thanks to strong performances by their bullpen. They also only have two reliable pitchers in the starting rotation in Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola thanks to Charlie Morton being out for the season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have only scored 126 runs while allowing 156 which is good for a -30 run differential. There are only four teams with worse run differentials than the Phillies the Minnesota Twins (-57), the Oakland Athletics (-51), the Atlanta Braves (-64), the Milwaukee Brewers (-38), and the Cincinnati Reds (-50). What do these teams have in common? They all have losing records.

Before I continue I would like to issue a disclaimer. The Phillies are better than these aforementioned teams and I hope that the Philadelphia Phillies can continue their pace for 96 wins and make a playoff appearance but with all the optimistic posts coming out about the Phillies exceeding expectations I think that a more realistic look needs to be taken at their season. The Phillies remind me of the Minnesota Twins last year, a team that overachieved for a season but when you look at the stats they shouldn’t have finished 83-79.

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In the first half, the Twins went 49-40 with a + 20 run differential but in the second half, things evened out and the Twins went 34-39 with a -27 run differential to leave them at a -7 run differential for the year. Their Pythagorean win percentage* was 81-81 which is about where I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to finish the season.

The difference between this Philadelphia Phillies team and the Minnesota Twins team of last year is that the Phillies have players waiting to help immediately as well as money to spend in the offseason with Ryan Howard‘s contract coming off of the books. The Phillies will hopefully avoid the mistake that the Twins made by being complacent with premature success.

Now that we’ve gotten that out the way let’s get down to analyzing the Philadelphia Phillies season so far. Not counting last night’s game the Phillies are sitting at 22-16 but their Pythagorean winning percentage is 15-23 which show’s that they have been extremely lucky so far this season.

The offense has been non-existent outside of Odubel Herrera and Carlos Ruiz. Overall, the lineup has produced 126 runs with a .233 batting average and a .292 on-base percentage. All of these numbers are near the bottom of the NL. There are only four batters in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup with 50+ at bats that are hitting over .250. This is the definition of an anemic offense.

The pitching staff, while it has been good also has its holes. The starters have pitched to a 3.80 ERA by allowing 92 earned runs in 217 innings pitched. They have also held opponents to a .233 batting average against. These numbers, while good are slightly misleading. The Philadelphia Phillies only have two starters with ERA’s under 4.00 and they are Vincent Velasquez (2.70) and Aaron Nola (2.89). Those numbers will bring any team’s ERA down to reasonable levels.

The bullpen has also been masked by strong performances from a few key pitchers. Overall the pen has an ERA of 4.01 with 54 runs allowed in 121 innings. They have compiled 16 saves and held opponents to a .243 batting average. The bullpen only has four pitchers with ERAs under 4 and 10+ innings pitched. They are led by the late-game duo of Hector Neris (1.52 ERA, 11.49 K’s per 9 innings) and Jeanmar Gomez (2.49 ERA, 14 saves). After them, only David Hernandez (2.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Dalier Hinojosa (3.27 ERA, 1 home run allowed) have ERAs under 4.00.

With only four pitchers in a seven-man bullpen truly being reliable there is room for improvement for the Philadelphia Phillies luckily there will be major competition for spots in the starting rotation and the pitchers that miss out can be bullpen pieces for years to come.

Next: Phillies Series Preview: the Miami Marlins

There will be massive turnover in the 25-man roster for the Philadelphia Phillies both this year and beyond. The Phillies may not finish above .500 for the season, but that’s ok because we can see the progress. There are players on the major league roster that are true building blocks for the future. The Philadelphia Phillies may not follow the Houston Astro’s “worst to first” path and that’s ok because all rebuilds aren’t created equally. Even if the Philadelphia Phillies can’t keep up their current pace, the future looks bright and that brings us hope as fans. At the end of the day isn’t that all we could truly ask for this season?

* = Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team’s winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky.

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The Philadelphia Phillies are Due for Regression

By Chuck Booth | May 17, 2016

As shown in the title I am about to write about a topic that Philadelphia Phillies fans don’t want to hear about. However, it needs to be said.