Philadelphia Phillies Weekend Preview: Cincinnati Reds
By Mike Lacy
The Philadelphia Phillies series against the Cincinnati Reds is previewed.
Every weekend, I look ahead to the Philadelphia Phillies’ next opponent and preview their opponent. I try to be as optimistic as possible about the Phils’ chances. No matter how dreadfully they have played, I attempt to find a reason to hope that the Philadelphia Phillies will emerge victorious.
Quick Phillies Update
Although it was more difficult than it should have been, the Phillies took two of the three games they played against the Atlanta Braves. Cameron Rupp was the hero on Thursday night, with a bases-clearing double to win the game in extra innings.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, they won’t have a chance to rest, as they’ll be heading home tonight to face an opponent who gave them some trouble earlier in the season.
Cincinnati Reds
Record: 14-20 (4th in NL Central)
Manager: Bryan Price
What’s the deal with the Reds
After opening the season with three straight wins (more on this below) – and five in their first six games – the Reds have looked more like the last-place team they were in 2015. They are tied for last place in the National League Central.
Despite some “name brand” players like Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips in the lineup, the Reds’ offense hasn’t been that impressive, ranking near the bottom of the National League in many offensive categories. Their pitching staff isn’t much batter, posting the second worst team ERA in the NL. The bullpen has been especially bad, as their relievers combined ERA is a putrid 6.34.
The last time they met
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The Phillies and Reds faced each other in the opening series of the season. Based on those three games, you might think the Phillies were the team dragged into last place by their bullpen. The Phillies blew late-inning leads in the first two games, and the bullpen was a big part in allowing eight runs in the fourth inning of game three.
After that series, more than a few Phillies fans questioned if the team would even win 60 games this season.
Reds player who isn’t entirely horrible
Shortstop Zack Cozart has been a solid player for most of his career, but in his age-30 season, he appears to be well on his way to career best numbers. His .330 batting average far exceeds his lifetime numbers, and he’s slugging at an impressive .550 rate.
Reds player who is horrible
After six starts and one relief appearance, Alfredo Simon has an 8.67 ERA. Unfortunately for the Philadelphia Phillies, they will not get to face him in this series.
Starting pitching preview
Taking a look at the expected starting pitching matchups for the series.
Brandon Finnegan vs. Jeremy Hellickson
The Reds have high hopes for Finnegan who was formerly a top prospect for the Royals. He has not often pitched deep into games this season, averaging fewer than six innings per start. That’s not a good thing considering the state of the Reds’ bullpen.
After pitching a gem against the Nationals at the end of April, Hellickson has been shaky in his past two starts. For the season, his ERA is a disappointing 4.91.
Adleman is a 28-year-old rookie who will be making his third career start this weekend. He’s pitched well – if not particularly deep into the game – in his first two starts, allowing only three earned runs in eleven innings.
Nola has surpassed expectations in his first full season, and even has people talking about him as a future ace. He clearly wasn’t at his best his last time out, but still kept the Philadelphia Phillies in the game for six innings, giving them a chance for a comeback victory.
Straily has bounced around the majors in his early career, but he may have found a permanent home as he’s thrived since moving into the Reds’ rotation.
Morgan pitched spectacularly against the Braves his last time out. (With the caveat being that the Braves don’t have a good – or even major league caliber – lineup) His velocity seems to be up from last year, and the Philadelphia Phillies are optimistic that the increased speed will lead to better results.
Reason for optimism
The Reds aren’t especially good, and based on their relief corps, the Phillies should have the advantage in a close game. The Philadelphia Phillies are probably eager to redeem themselves for their failures against the Reds at the beginning of the season.
Reason for pessimism
The Reds know they can beat the Philadelphia Phillies, and sometimes one team – even lousy teams like the Reds – can have another team’s number (see last season’s series between the Phillies and Brewers for example). The Phillies have done well in one-run games, but you wonder if that season-opening series might be in their heads if things are close in the late innings.
Next: Ryan Howard's Trade Value Rising
Prediction
The Reds aren’t good enough to dominate the season series. The Phillies win two out of three.