Philadelphia Phillies: Have They Improved From 2015?
By Mike Lacy
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen a lot of change the last few seasons, but will they improve from the down year they had in 2015?
The Philadelphia Phillies’ 2016 season is about to begin after a busy offseason. There has been a considerable amount of player turnover since last season (only one pitcher on today’s roster was on the team at the beginning of the 2015 season) and the rebuilding effort is clearly well underway.
With all the turnover, there is a newfound sense of optimism surrounding the team. But is that optimism justified? Looking at the roster, it’s not entirely clear if the team will actually be any better than the 99 loss edition from 2015.
I’ll look at each of the team’s units and decide if they are better or worse than last year.
Starting pitching
The 2015 rotation had one huge advantage in the form of Cole Hamels. He gave the Phillies a true ace at the top of the rotation, and gave fans hope that at least one out of every five games wouldn’t be a disaster. The 2016 rotation doesn’t have anyone nearly that good.
On the other hand, the depth of the 2016 rotation is far superior. Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton aren’t stars, but they are legitimate major league starters. The 2015 Phillies received far too many starts from the likes of Jerome Williams and Sean O’Sullivan; pitchers who rarely even gave the team a fighting chance at victory. In addition, the 2016 rotation has some upside as Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Vincent Velazquez all have varying degrees of future potential.
Edge: 2016
Bullpen
Heading into 2015, the Phillies’ bullpen appeared to be a strength. While the middle relief wasn’t as good as expected, the back end was superb. For as many faults as the 2015 Phillies had, if they entered the eighth inning with a lead, Ken Giles and Jonathan Papelbon generally made sure they kept it.
The 2016 bullpen doesn’t have a single reliever who you can definitively say is a reliable option. Considering the historic volatility of relievers, that isn’t necessarily a recipe for disaster, but it isn’t a good sign that the team still hasn’t settled on a closer.
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Hopefully a few of the no-names manage to prove themselves, but there’s a definite possibility that we could suffer through more than a few ugly late-inning situations.
Edge: 2015
Infield
In 2015, the decline of team mainstays Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Carlos Ruiz continued. All three had offensive seasons that were far below league average at their positions.
Maikel Franco had a strong rookie season while getting hurt, and if his spring stats are any indication, the Phillies may have a star on their hands. While both were better than expected offensively in 2015, it isn’t clear if either Freddy Galvis or Cesar Hernandez will ever be better than league average offensively. At this point, they’re probably competing to see who gets the second base job once J.P. Crawford is called up.
At catcher, the team is transitioning from Ruiz to Cameron Rupp. Rupp had a few flashes of power in 2015. Can he do even more given more playing time?
At first base, manager Pete Mackanin appears committed to platooning Howard with Darin Ruf. That hope is that both men continue their performance against opposite handed pitching and the Phillies get above average production out of first base.
Edge: 2016
Outfield
The offensive performance of the 2015 Phillies outfield was barely passable. Unfortunately, the 2016 outfield will be hard pressed to reach even that level. Ben Revere, Jeff Francoeur, Aaron Altherr, and even Domonic Brown (Yes, Dom had a few good moments in 2015) are gone, and their replacements are huge question marks.
Odubel Herrera will look to build upon his surprisingly strong rookie season, but regression certainly isn’t out of the question. One corner spot will be handled by Peter Bourjos, who is much better on defense than he is on offense. The other corner will be manned by Rule 5 pick Tyler Goeddel. Can the Phillies strike Rule 5 gold two years in a row?
There may be some hope for improvement at midseason or whenever top prospect Nick Williams proves himself ready for the big leagues.
Edge: 2015
Final Take
While the bullpen frightens me, it is encouraging that the Phillies’ rotation looks capable of keeping them in the game every night. I imagine the team will surrender fewer runs than it did in 2015.
But how will they do offensively? Aside from Franco and perhaps Herrera and the first base platoon, is there any player that opposing pitchers would be the least bit concerned about? This could easily be the worst offensive team in the league.
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If I had to guess, I’d say the Phillies will modestly improve their 2015 record, and that’s mostly because of the manager. The team seemed to despise playing for former manager Ryne Sandberg, and some of Sandberg’s decisions cost the team victories. Just having a competent manager who isn’t hated by the players could give the Phillies a few extra wins in 2016.