Believe it or not, the Philadelphia Phillies could be improved in 2015

Preseason predictions have not been kind to the Philadelphia Phillies. Most pundits have them finishing in last place in the National League East, and they are the odds-on favorites to have the worst record in the league.

It’s only natural that many Phillies fans might not be feeling too excited about the upcoming season. After all, last season wasn’t much fun, and the team is expected to be even worse this year.

At the risk of being labeled an unrealistic optimist, I’m here to tell you that things might not be that bad. In fact, it’s a real possibility that the 2015 Phillies actually finish with more wins than the 2014 edition.

Before you question my sanity, please keep a couple of things in mind:

1. We’re not dealing with an especially high-set bar here. The Phillies only had 73 wins in 2014.

2. I’m not saying that the Phillies will be good in 2015. I’m only saying that their record may be improved.

Even with those disclaimers, you might be questioning how I can make such a statement. After all, the Phillies weren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse in 2014, and they traded away two of their better hitters in the offseason.

. Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

It’s possible that their absences will be overcome thanks to improvement from three players: Dom Brown, Ryan Howard, and Cody Asche.

I’m not expecting great performances out of any of them. I think it’s unlikely that either Brown or Howard return to the All-Star Game, but it is quite possible that they provide more than they did last year. That should be enough to partially compensate for the dropoff from Rollins to Freddy Galvis and from Byrd to whoever ends up taking his place.

As for Asche, he’s young enough to make me think that he’ll see some improvement in his second full season.

But even with some improvement from those three, the Phillies offense will still probably decline overall. So why would I think the Phillies will be better?

Because (on paper, at least) the pitching staff looks to be stronger than it was in 2014. (Once again, remember that the bar was set low.)

I’m assuming that Cole Hamels starts the season with the Phillies and that he pitches nearly as well as he did in 2014. Even if there is a slight decline, just having him healthy for the start of the season should help offset that.

The presumed return of Cliff Lee should provide a huge boost. Unfortunately, at his age and coming off an elbow injury, there’s a very real possibility that we’ve seen the last of Cliff Lee as an ace-level pitcher. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s washed up.

Cliff Lee. Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Just because Roy Halladay‘s decline happened almost instantly, it doesn’t mean the same will happen to Lee. He might not be one of the best pitchers in the league any more, but there’s a good chance he can still be effective.

As for the rest of the rotation, the bad news is that they lost a lot of innings when A.J. Burnett and Kyle Kendrick left as free agents. The good news is that most of those innings weren’t especially good. To help replace them, they signed Aaron Harang, who should at least be able to match what Kendrick gave them last year.

The last two slots of the rotation are up for grabs, but there are some promising candidates fighting for them.

If healthy (and this is a HUGE if), Chad Billingsley could be a major upgrade.  And while Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is still a mystery, there’s a chance he lives up to the promise the Phillies once saw in him.

If those two don’t work out, then David “Bucky” Buchanan will likely get a chance. Buchanan had an encouraging rookie season, and while he may not profile to ever be more than a fourth or fifth starter, having a competent back-of-the-rotation starter isn’t the worst thing in the world.

Depth will be provided by Jerome Williams. The journeyman pitched well after joining the Phillies at the end of the season, and hopefully he can come close to repeating that.

Obviously, this rotation isn’t going to make anyone forget about the four aces, but it also looks like it could potentially be a team strength. The Phillies should take the field most nights knowing that their starter will at least keep them in the game.

The real improvement will likely come thanks to the bullpen. In recent years, the bullpen has been a weakness, but thankfully the days of watching the likes of Chad Durbin and Chad Qualls are over. The Phillies are now blessed with a group of talented relievers who should actually give the Phillies an advantage in the late innings.

Ken Giles provides some reason to hope. Image Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Discussing relief pitchers always carries the warning that reliever performances are often inconsistent, and last year’s lock-down setup might be this year’s disaster. (For a good example of this, take a look at Rheal Cormier‘s Phillies career. On second thought, don’t do that. It might cause bad flashbacks to Ed Wade’s many failed trade deadline deals.)

Assuming that Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, Jake Diekman, and Justin De Fratus can come close to matching what they did in 2014, the Phillies should make it very tough on opposing hitters in the late innings.

Remember that the Phillies’ bullpen didn’t take shape until the second half of the 2014 season. Early on, guys like B.J. Rosenberg were still being used in key situations.

As I mentioned earlier, we shouldn’t get too excited about the 2015 Phillies. Even the most optimistic fan would have a tough time predicting a playoff berth. But if you were worried that the season was going to be a complete disaster, you just might find yourself a bit surprised by what happens.