Analyzing Michael Carter-Williams’ Sophomore Season

***STATISTICS AS OF 1/20***

Michael Carter-Williams, the 2013-2014 NBA Rookie of The Year, is in the midst of his sophomore season in Philadelphia. The Sixers have been the subject of national criticism for tanking, but it appeared through year one that Sam Hinkie may have struck gold with Michael Carter-Williams.

The Philadelphia 76ers selected the Syracuse point guard with the 11th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. Carter-Williams exploded on the scene for the Sixers, leading an upset effort against the Miami Heat on opening night 2013 behind 22 points, 12 assists, 9 steals and 7 rebounds. This seemed to be a sign of things to come, and it was. Michael Carter-Williams finished his rookie season averaging 16.7 points, 6.3 assists and 6.2 rebounds. To go along with his impressive offensive numbers, the rookie out of Syracuse finished his 2013-2014 campaign averaging 1.9 steals per game–finishing ninth in the NBA on a per game average.

The Sixers Point-Guard piled up first-year honors, earning the NBA Rookie of the Week (one time), Rookie of the Month (four times), NBA All-Rookie First Team and NBA Rookie of the Year. Heading into 2014-2015, the Sixers expected Michael Carter-Williams to excel and play at an All-Star level.

After year one, the Sixers first-round pick appeared to be well spent. Carter-Williams took the league by storm in his rookie season, earning high expectations coming into 2014-2015. The Sixers would be getting fellow first-rounder, Nerlens Noel back after missing 2013-2014 recovering from an ACL tear. The Sixers fans and front-office were excited to see their first-round picks in action together.

After missing the first seven games of the season, Carter-Williams made his debut against the Dallas Mavericks. The Sixers lost by 53. Not exactly what you would hope for as a Sixers fan. Unfortunately for Carter-Williams, he did not play well in this game, shooting six of nineteen (31.6%) from the field and committing six turnovers. While it was Carter-Williams first game back and most would say he was just shaking off the rust, that doesn’t appear to be the case as the season has gone on.

To this point in the 2014-2015 season, Michael Carter-Williams has regressed in the majority of metrics–both back of the card and advanced. Lets take a look at Carter-Williams rookie numbers in 2013-2014 compared to his sophomore season.

As you can see, Michael Carter-Williams has regressed in every offensive metric expect for assists. To be fair, assists are generally associated with Point Guard value. I’m not a huge believer in that because assists can be misleading. If we are to talk player value, I’d generally default to Player Efficiency Rating (PER) or Win Shares (WS). However, let us start by looking at Carter-Williams’ drop in points per game. Obviously, the shooting percentages took a dip from his rookie season, but that may have to do with shot selection. For starters, Carter-Williams is a poor three-point shooter, but that has yet to stop him from shooting them. This year, 20.5% of Carter-Williams shots have been from three-point range. It doesn’t make sense for this trend to continue because of how poor a shooter he is in general, let alone from three-point range where he is a 25% shooter for his career. Even at Syracuse, Carter Williams shot just 30.7% from deep. Three point shots aren’t Carter-Williams only issue, though. Inside the arc, Carter-Williams does not shoot higher than 35% from the field except for zero to three feet from the rim. Over the past two seasons with a minimum of 100 games played, Carter-Williams owns the tenth worst field goal percentage amongst NBA guards. However, when Carter-Williams gets to the rim, he shoots 61.8%. Easy analysis says that Michael Carter-Williams needs to get to the rim. Whether it is through posting up or creating via isolation, he needs to find a way to get to the rim.

The next issue that Carter-Williams needs to improve going forward is his free throw shooting. As I suggested above, Carter-Williams needs to get to the rim. However, when he does that, more often than not he draws contact. That will result in trips to the charity stripe. At this point in his career, Carter-Williams is a 68% free throw shooter–which ranks as the third worst among NBA guards who have played 100 games in past two seasons. If Carter-Williams is going to turn into a more aggressive guard and get to the rim as I suggested, he will need to improve his free throw shooting. I am not overly optimistic about Carter-Williams improving in this department considering he shot 67.9% for his career at Syracuse. Needless to say, if Carter-Williams wants to increase his value in the future, hitting his free throws will be a start.

Finally, the third offensive aspect that Michael Carter-Williams needs to improve is taking care of the basketball. Since the time Michael Carter-Williams was in his sophomore year at Syracuse, I have worried about his ball protection. In his sophomore year at Syracuse, Carter-Williams averaged 3.45 turnovers per game. That is 138 turnovers in 40 games. Not good at all. In his first season, Michael Carter-Williams turned the ball over 3.7 per game. Those turnovers were a result of bad passes and lost balls. To break it down a little further, Carter-Williams committed 2.05 bad pass turnovers per game in 2013-2014. To go along with the bad passes, he had .92 lost ball turnovers per game. In 2014-2015, the turnovers have increased to 4.4 per game. Unfortunately, Carter-Williams is committing 2.24 bad pass turnovers per game this season to go along with 1.57 lost ball turnovers. If Carter-Williams wants to be an elite point guard and excel beyond his rookie year, he needs to protect the basketball. I remain optimistic that MCW’s turnovers will decrease if the talent around him increases. At times, he does force passes and it may be a product of trying to take over the game and make up for other player deficiencies on the Sixers.

Now, I will look at Michael Carter-Williams on defense over the past two season. The graph below includes both back of the card and advanced statistics. The NBA rank is amongst guards who have played at least 100 games during Carter-Williams time in the NBA (2013-2014 and 2014-2015).

As the chart above shows, Michael Carter-Williams has been a valuable defensive player during his time with the Sixers. While Carter-Williams has regressed this year in steals and blocks per game, he is still among the top-10 in a two-year span. Though he has regressed, I am not overly concerned about Carter-Williams defense.

In college, Carter-Williams was a very good defender at the point-guard position and he has continued that in the NBA. Unlike most guards, Carter-Williams has been an elite rebounder. In fact, while he ranks second in Defensive Rebounds in the chart above–he actually is the top ranked point-guard in that span. In terms of total steals in the same two-year span, he is second in his draft class trailing only Victor Oladipo, who Carter-Williams beat out for the 2013-2014 Rookie of The Year. Overall, I don’t have much to say about Michael Carter-Williams on defense. Michael Carter-Williams 6’7 wing span will continue to create problems for smaller Point Guards. I truly believe that Carter-Williams could be an elite defender for the duration of his career.

While I appear harsh about Michael Carter-Williams on offense, I admire his defensive ability and ceiling. As stated above, Carter-Williams is not a good shooter and I am not overly optimistic that will change. Range wise, he is very limited and needs to stop shooting three pointers. If Carter-Williams can get to the rim or create match-up issues with other point guards in the paint, he needs to. Settling for eleven foot jump shots, which is his average shot this year, won’t get it done. The offensive development of Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid (hopefully) should help alleviate some of the pressure Carter-Williams feels on offense. Not only will the Sixers have Noel and Embiid, but they should end up with a lottery pick. That would be four number first-round picks on the floor at one time. That should further help Carter-Williams offensively. In no way do I think Michael Carter-Williams will be a great offensive player in terms of shooting, but if he starts taking better shots, he could be serviceable.

The other factor that will determine whether or not Carter-Williams will get to the next level is protecting the basketball. While John Wall, James Harden and Stephen Curry all have more turnovers in the past two seasons than Michael Carter-Williams, they all shoot over 44%, which helps counteract some of their turnovers. What stands out about that group is that they have all played at least 585 minutes more than Carter-Williams. If Michael Carter-Williams wants to grow as a Point Guard, he needs to protect the ball.

Overall, I still believe in Michael Carter-Williams going forward. The talent that will hopefully surround him in the next year should help take pressure off of the young Point Guard. Offensively, he has his issues, but he needs to continue to work at it. Getting to the rim and exposing smaller Point Guards is necessary for the 23-year old. I believe that turnovers will continue to trouble Michael Carter-Williams for the time being. Ultimately, if he gets enough talent around him, he won’t be forced to make plays, but can rely on others for offensive production. Right now, he doesn’t have that luxury. On defense, Carter-Williams should have no worries. He is a long Point Guard who frequently disrupts plays. His defense in college was above-average and it has translated to the NBA. I see no reason to worry about Carter-Williams on defense. In terms of future value, I think Carter-Williams may sneak into an All-Star game, but I wouldn’t say he is a perennial All-Star. If Michael Carter-Williams offensive value and turnover issues don’t improve, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Sixers seriously shop Carter-Williams while his stock is high.