Amaro, Sandberg are Overselling Ben Revere

In a recent article by Philadelphia Inquirer Columnist, Bob Brookover, Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ryne Sandberg raved about Phillies center-fielder Ben Revere.

In 2014, the Phillies center-fielder posted a .325/.361/.686 slash line, coming off a 2013 season that was cut short due to a foot injury.

Ruben Amaro Jr. said this of Revere.

“He wasn’t an all-star, but he put up some pretty damn good numbers.” Amaro continued on saying ” He had a very, very good year for us. Ben is still learning the game a little bit. One thing I think will help is health.”

That is a pretty resounding statement from the Phillies General Manager.

Later in the article, Ryne Sandberg raved about Ben Revere’s power potential stating “He’s a strong kid, but he hits all singles. For me, that doesn’t add up. I see him as a potential 30 to 40 doubles type of a hitter mainly because he makes so much contact and he is strong. He has ability to pop the ball to the gaps and down the lines.”

Yet another resounding statement about Revere.

Sandberg didn’t stop there, though. The Phillies skipper added “He does use the whole field when he hits and he’s a base stealer, so for me that shows the potential to translate into a doubles hitter. That makes him twice as dangerous and also gives him the ability to occasionally drive in runs. I also think he has the potential to hit 10 home runs a year.”

Well, that seems to be a stretch for a guy who has two career home runs, but if anything, it shows that Sandberg has confidence in the development of Ben Revere.

First, lets start with Revere as a hitter. In 2014, he finished with a .306 batting average, which was fifth in the National League. While he was fifth in batting average, Revere finished in a tie for first in hits with the Nationals Denard Span. To add to his impressive batting average and hit total, Revere swiped 49 bases–finishing third in the National League. Those traditional numbers, would lead you to think that Revere was one of the more valuable offensive players in the National League in 2014. Those numbers are exactly why relying solely on just traditional stats in 2015 doesn’t tell you the entire story.

Now, I don’t want to tell Amaro and Sandberg they are completely wrong, but they are overvaluing Revere’s offensive capabilities. Of all major league Center Fielders (at least 50% of games at CF) with 500 plate appearances in 2014, Revere ranked 14th of 17 in OPS (.686). Revere also ranked 14th in Slugging Percentage (.361). In On-Base Percentage, which may be the most important statistic to a base-stealer, Revere ranked 11th of the 17 in the sample (.325). If we compare Revere to all Major League outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances spending at least 50% of their time in either left, right or center field, Revere ranked 30th of 51 in OBP, 45th in Slugging Percentage and 44th in OPS.

However, Revere excels at base running, which I am able to agree with Sandberg on. Revere stole 49 bases for the Phillies and was safe in 85.97% of his stolen base attempts. In 2014, the MLB average for advancing from first to third on a single was 28%. Ben Revere advanced in 8 of 22 opportunities (36.3%). Revere excelled at going second to home on singles as well, taking the extra bag in 16 of his 24 opportunities (66.6%). The major league average going second to home on a single was 59% in 2014. Finally, Revere went first to home in three of seven opportunities (42.8%)– where the major league average is 44%. Overall, Ben Revere took 31 extra bases in 2014, utilizing his speed for the Phillies. However, the more impressive statistic is that Revere did not make an out trying to take an extra base in 2014. While he didn’t make any outs advancing, he did make two base running out and was doubled off twice. According to the Bill James Handbook, Ben Revere netted 54 extra bases for the Phillies in 2014.

No one can deny Ben Revere’s speed, but speed doesn’t always equate to plus defense. There are several facets to defense, such as reading the ball off the bat (jump), route to the ball and arm strength to hold runners from advancing the extra base. According to Baseball Info Solutions, Ben Revere was eighteen defensive runs saved below replacement in 2014. That was the second worst among center-field regulars. In Plus/Minus Runs Saved, which measures a players range, Revere was -10 alone. The next metric is Good Field Plays/Defensive Misplay Runs Saved, which Revere finished -2. This means Revere’s defensive misplays cost the Phillies two runs in 2014. Finally, the throwing arm of Ben Revere cost the Phillies six runs in 2014. As you can guess, this total is made up of players taking extra bases on Revere. This added up gives the -18 defensive runs saved. These numbers should be a clear sign to the Phillies that Revere has a ton of work to do defensively.

Finally, let us look at Revere’s overall value according to Wins Above Replacement. Revere finished his 2014 campaign 0.6-WAR. If you follow the Wins Above Replacement Scale, it would suggest Revere was of replacement level in 2014. While Revere was a plus offensive player according to Baseball-Reference (2.8 oWAR), he was extremely poor on defense (-1.8 dWAR). Trust it or not, WAR consistently ranks the best players in baseball and is an important metric.

In my honest opinion, I don’t know how Ryne Sandberg can believe in Revere being a 30-40 double, 10 home run hitter. Ben Revere has two home runs in his career and his swing doesn’t create the leverage needed to drive the ball out of the park. Last year, Revere hit 544 balls in play. Of the balls hit in play, Revere hit 352 ground balls (64.7%). It isn’t going to be easy to translate that into extra base hits. Of the 544 balls hit in play, just 114 were line drives (20.95%). That has some hope, but the ball would have to get deep enough in the gap to allow Revere to advance and his swing doesn’t exactly generate power. Finally, I cannot buy Revere being a double-digit home run player. In 2014, Ben Revere hit just 78 fly balls (14.33%). Revere’s fly ball numbers don’t lead me to believe he will hit more than five home runs in a season, let alone ten.

In reality, Revere doesn’t need to hit home runs–that isn’t in his skill set. Revere needs to see pitches and get on base. In 2014, Revere saw just 3.61 pitches per plate appearance. That isn’t exactly going to lead to a high On-Base Percentage. If he can overcome his aggressiveness, Revere’s offensive value could significantly increase. That will require Revere to take a few more walks this year, as he posted just 13 in 2014. Until Revere shows patience at the plate, I’m not buying him as a high On-Base player.

On the bases, you can’t hate Revere. He is a very valuable base runner, which ties into the need for him to get on base. There is no reason that Ben Revere can’t steal 50 or more bases in 2015. If he can get on base more, he may steal 60 or more bases.

Defensively, Revere is a disaster. The 26-year old makes diving plays quite frequently, but he shouldn’t have to. If Revere read the ball better off the bat, he would probably be camped under some the balls he dives after. His arm is going to be a liability no matter what he does. He has owned a weak arm his entire career and while some throwing programs may build his arm strength, he will never be a plus thrower. Revere’s speed has helped him make up for poor routes during his career, but that can improve with the proper direction.

Overall, I don’t think that Revere will ever be a 30-40 double, 10 home run hitter like Sandberg suggested. However, the Phillies should focus on the 5’9, 165-pound center-fielder getting on base to maximize his speed. If they encourage Revere to be more aggressive and take extra bases on singles, go for it. But Revere hits a ton of ground balls, so it wont be easy to advance extra bases unless the ball is hit in the right place. The Phillies should be focused on Ben Revere the speedy lead-off hitter, not Ben Revere the 5’9, 165-pound power hitter with a contact swing.