Phillies Pre-Christmas Projected 2015 Line-Up

The Jimmy Rollins trade is finally complete, which means there will be a new starting shortstop in Philadelphia for the first time since 2001. The 2015 Philadelphia Phillies will be in trouble when it comes to offensive production. The trade of Jimmy Rollins won’t help the offense, but it certainly isn’t like the Phillies were an offensive juggernaut a season ago with Rollins.

The Phillies struggled offensively in 2014, where they scored 619 runs–which ranked eighth in the National League. Among other statistics, the 2014 Phillies were below league average in Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, OPS and OPS+. Not that you needed stats to tell you, but the Phillies offense in 2014 was far from being anything special.

The 2014 offseason is moving  along and while the Phillies have been actively shopping players, they have managed to maintain a similar roster to what the put on the field in 2014.

Here’s a pre-Christmas projected lineup for the 2015 Phillies, with their 2014 slash lines.

1. CF- Ben Revere (.325/.361/.686)
2. 2B-Chase Utley (.339/.407/.746)
3. RF-Marlon Byrd (.312/.445/.757)
4. 1B-Ryan Howard (.310/.380/.690)
5. C- Carlos Ruiz (.347/.370/.717)
6. LF- Domonic Brown (.285/.349/.634)
7. 3B- Cody Asche (.309/.390/.699)
8. SS- Freddy Galvis (.259/.362/.621)
9. Pitcher

First off, I am merely projecting what the Phillies lineup is going to be. If you think Darin Ruf or Grady Sizemore should play over Domonic Brown, fair enough. I am also posting each player’s slash line, which does not include Batting Average. If you value batting average, that is fine. Personally, I put more weight on a player’s OPS because to me, it is a better measure of a players offensive value. Yes, Ben Revere steals bases, but he needs to get on base in order to do so, which is why I value his OBP more than his Batting Average. Is a team going to win a lot of game with five players having an OPS below .700? Unless they have a rotation of nothing but Hall of Fame pitchers, then no.

Let’s play optimist

• Ryan Howard posted the lowest OPS of his career in 2014 (.690). Is it fair to think he rebounds? It depends what your definition of rebound is. Will Ryan Howard turn into the player he was during his peak? No, but he could post an OPS closer to .740.
• I don’t think Domonic Brown is as bad as he looked last year. Don’t get me wrong though, Brown is not an All-Star. But I think he should post an OPS closer to .700. While that is still below league average, it is an improvement from his dismal 2014.
• The other player that I think is better than his 2014 OPS is Cody Asche. I think Asche is a league average third-baseman. At the plate, Asche has shown his weaknesses, but then again, he went on tears where it looked like he could handle third. With at-bats, Asche’s plate discipline should increase. In 2014, he walked 33 times while striking out 103 times. Asche also hit 10 home runs in his rookie season. I think Asche’s 2014 OPS should be closer to .740, which is progress.
• If I had to pick three players to be somewhat optimistic about, it would be these three. While Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown has dismal 2014 numbers, I do think they’re a little better than their 2014 performances. As for Asche, I think the rookie learning curve showed from time to time. The walk rate will remain a concern, but I expect Asche’s plate discipline to increase, which will help his OPS.

What Changes Could Happen Prior To Opening Day?

The Phillies open their 2015 campaign on April 6th against the Boston Red Sox. They have been involved in trade discussions all winter, so it is fair to assume the line-up listed above will not the line-up Ryne Sandberg writes on opening day. Ruben Amaro reportedly has discussed moving Ben Revere, Chase Utley, Marlon Byrd and Ryan Howard. Those are the top four hitters in the projected line-up. I am not going to play fantasy General Manager and say who will go, but there is the possibility that any combination of the four isn’t here on opening day.

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Another change that you could see prior to opening day is the movement of Cody Asche. The Phillies are kicking around the idea of Asche playing both left field and first base in Spring Training. If Asche moves to another position, I expect Maikel Franco to be at third base. Personally, I like Franco, but his skills are very raw. If Asche plays first base, it is because Ryan Howard is no longer on the roster. Also, I am not sure why Darin Ruf or Chase Utley would not play first over Asche, but it sounds like they would give Asche a shot.

Obviously the Phillies are shopping their players and other changes may happen, but as I said, I am not going to plug people into the line-up. I am going with their current roster. However, Freddy Galvis is now the projected opening day shortstop for the Phillies. I truly believe Galvis will be there opening day, but the Phillies are looking at other options. Their number one prospect J.P Crawford has yet to play above single-A–which means the Phillies need a stopgap for the next few years.

If Amaro and company decide to sign a free-agent shortstop instead of playing Galvis, they could sign Rafael Furcal, Everth Cabrera or Asdrubal Cabrera. There are several free-agent shortstops, but no shortstops who have much upside. That is fine though. I am not a fan of signing a player like Rafael Furcal. Historically, Furcal has struggled to stay on the field. This is a problem for me. Why should the Phillies sign a shortstop to come in, get hurt and then put Galvis back at shortstop?

If the Phillies are going to sign a shortstop to come in and try to re-establish value, sign Everth Cabrera. Cabrera, who was suspended for PED use in 2013, posted a -.2 WAR in 2014, according to Fangraphs. The reason this signing may make sense is that Cabrera was hurt for half of 2014 and needs to re-establish his value. Cabrera, who is 28 years old, finished 3.1 Wins Above Replacement in 2013. Cabrera may sign a low value deal to try and re-establish the value shown prior to his 2013 suspension.

The other option is Asdrubal Cabrera, who is an established veteran. Asdrubal Cabrera played for both the Indians and Nationals in 2014. Cabrera has name value, but his price tag may be too expensive. Cabrera’s Batting Average, On-Base Percentage and Slugging have all declined in the last three years. If Cabrera is going to ask for $8-$11 million average annual value, the Phillies should pass on Cabrera. He has declining numbers and is a negative value defender, so the investment may not make sense.

Obviously, the Phillies could just start Galvis at shortstop on opening day. But, if they don’t like that, they do have a few other options.

What to expect of the current line-up?

The current Phillies line-up as projected above is very weak. If the Phillies put out an opening day line-up similar to the one projected, they should expect to finish near the bottom of the league in offensive production. Even if the players’ I am optimistic about bounce back, it won’t be a drastic improvement to the overall production of the team. Starting younger players like Franco may give fans something to be excited about, but that doesn’t change the lack of overall production that will likely come form this group. This current line-up is easily the worst in their division and one of the worst in all of baseball, which seems to lend to the idea that the Phillies might be one of the five worst teams in baseball.