The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos are going to collide in mere days, with the Superbowl 48 title on the line. If you are planning to put money down on the game, you’ve probably noticed that the public is leaning hard in one direction.
Richard Sherman has cast a spell on his Seattle Seahawks team with his infamous “I am the greatest” rant, that has gamblers running to websites to lay their hard earned cash on “the good guy” Denver Broncos. At a rate of 75%, the public is pounding the action in on the Broncos and the poster boy for fair play, Peyton Manning.
Seriously Richard Sherman, you just won the NFC title game and all you can think about is yourself? Whatever remarks Michael Crabtree made were in the past and with the amount of trash talking you do, maybe you should learn to take your own medicine better. Besides if you were the greatest, you shouldn’t have to tell everyone, right?
Now that my rant is over (I am the greatest..er..forget it) let’s get down to business. At first glance, this game might suggest that it features two very evenly matched teams. Both were 13-3 in the regular season, with matching win totals at home(7-1) and on the road(6-2). The Broncos feature the best offense in the NFL, while the Seahawks will bring in Richard Sherman (of course) and the best defense in the NFL. Let’s dive into the stats a little further and see what we can find.
While their records might be similar, Seattle has a very nice edge when facing tougher opponents. Seattle’s strength of schedule ranks eighth in league, compared to Denver’s 17th ranking. Seattle has had the rougher road to get this far, which should count for something.
With that said, let’s take a look at the line and see what we can discover. Seattle opened, at most books, as a one point favorite. Since then, Seattle has become a three point dog. A line movement of three or more points usually means there’s a very big public favorite out there. That isn’t to take away from Denver, who brings in the NFL’s most prolific offense ever, but they aren’t that much better than Seattle, if they are at all. While the Broncos are the feel good story and everyone, including myself, would like to see Peyton get his second ring, most of the late movement will be on Seattle. So get the three points while you can, as the pro’s are all over Seattle and late money will be moving the line by a fraction or a full point.
Taking a look at both teams, I really consider Seattle to be the better team and worth a large wager as opening favorite turned dog. I just think Manning is going to have trouble with such an elite defense that can get pressure on the QB with just their front four. If Seattle can continually send seven back into coverage they have a real shot at disrupting Denver’s top offense. In the battle of number ones, I’m taking Seahawks defense to edge-out on the Broncos elite offense.
Although the Broncos have a good rush defense (we all love “Pot Roast”), most teams have had to take to the air to try and play catch-up, skewing the stats a bit. I do expect Marshawn Lynch to take over the game in the second half and gain huge chunks on the ground as the clock winds down. Seattle’s offensive line, led by Russell Okung, is a superior unit. Throw in that fact that I expect a big game out of Lynch, I think the Seahawks have enough on both sides of the ball to give Russell Wilson all the support he needs to win his first Superbowl.
Getting three point when picking Seattle, is like getting a car for Christmas. Taking the dog, Seattle(+3 points). Good luck if you decide to ride along.