Instead of mocking the draft, let’s simulate it. Previously, I’ve written how principles of a chaos theory-influenced draft simulation can illustrate just how impossible it is to predict what will happen in the NFL Draft. Each selection in the draft is dependent on the ones that come before it, so changing any of the previous selections can radically alter any one team’s particular pick at the moment, or in the future. By many accounts, the Philadelphia Eagles seem likely to draft an offensive tackle in the first round, but exactly how likely?
The simulation model was run 1,000 times and we can glean from it the percent chance any one prospect will be drafted at any position in the draft. The model itself is based on one big board (ideally I would like to use 32 different ones, but maybe next year), and a random decision to draft based on need or best player available. Once that decision is determined, which team need and which best player available is also determined randomly (within reason), in order to account for value and reaches. Envision this simulation as a statistical draft performed within a vacuum, with no trades.
Before I get into the Eagles’ selections, here is how the top three picks look after 1,000 simulation runs:
You can see that offensive tackles are quite prevalent, as they are reported to be, which impacts how the Eagles could draft. Below are the odds each player is selected for each of the Eagles’ selections:
Philadelphia Eagles Round 1
The Eagles are also indeed likely to draft an OT in the first round, 58.9% likely according to this model. The odds that they draft Lane Johnson are higher than Luke Joeckel mainly because Joeckel is not as available at 4 as Johnson. However, the player that jumps out here is Matt Barkley, drafted 61 times in 1,000. It is HIGHLY unlikely, way less than 6.1% likely, that the Eagles will draft Barkley at all, let alone here. For this reason I would like to have a big board for each individual team. Again, maybe next year. Here are the remaining selections for the Birds:
Philadelphia Eagles Round 2
Philadelphia Eagles Round 3
Philadelphia Eagles Round 4
Philadelphia Eagles Round 5
Philadelphia Eagles Round 7 Pick 210
Philadelphia Eagles Round 7 Pick 212
Philadelphia Eagles Round 7 Pick 239
The deeper we go into the draft, the more variation there is in the simulation model, which would seem to mimic reality. At any rate. it will be interesting to see how the dust from this year’s NFL Draft eventually settles. My guess is, given the relative depth and parity of prospects from middle first through third rounds, there may be more trades than normal. But who knows? You can’t predict chaos, though we can sure as hell try. What are your predictions for the Eagles in this draft?
Tags: Dion Jordan Dion Jordan Eagles Eric Fisher Eric Fisher Eagles Geno Smith Geno Smith Eagles Lane Johnson Lane Johnson Eagles Luke Joeckel NFL Draft Philadelphia Eagles Philadephia Eagles Draft Who Will The Eagles DrafT?